Dell

Today's modest bounce in stocks - considerably removed after-hours - does not provide much hope for those looking to buy the dip with the Dow still down over 1000 points year-to-date. In fact, as we discuss below, troubling news just continues to pour in from all over the world... For those that are not interested in the technical details, what all of this means is that global financial markets are starting to become extremely unstable. Consider the following...

Curious why Michael Dell was so eager to take the company he founded private? So he could do stuff like this without attracting too much attention. According to the Channel Register, the recently LBOed company is "starting the expected huge layoff program this week, claiming numbers will be north of 15,000." Of course, with a private sponsor in charge of the recently public company, the only thing that matters now is maximizing cash flows in an environment of falling PC sales, a commoditisation of the server market and a perceived need to better serve enterprises with their ever-increasing mobile and cloud-focused IT requirements - things that do not bode well for Dell's EBITDA - and the result is perhaps the largest axing round in the company's history. But at least the shareholders cashed out while they could.

Tech isn’t exactly booming, but that hasn’t kept “valuations” of tech startups from being pushed into the stratosphere, for the benefit of an elite club.

In a day that will be remembered for the first major snowstorm to hit New York in 2014 and test the clean up capabilities and resolve of the city's new populist mayor (not starting on a good note following reports that JFK airport will be closed at least until 8:30 am Eastern), it was only fitting that there was virtually no overnight news aside for the Chinese non-manufacturing PMI which dropped from 56.0 to 54.6, a new 4 month low. Still, following yesterday's ugly start to the new year, stocks in Europe traded higher this morning, in part driven by value related flows following the sell-off yesterday. Retailers led the move higher, with Next shares in London up as much as 11% which is the most since January 2009 and to its highest level since 1988 after the company lifted profit forecast after strong Christmas trading performance. Other UK based retailers with likes of AB Foods and M&S also advanced around 2%.

All the pundits who preach an economic recovery in the US always fall strangely silent when asked to share their thoughts on the following chart (taken from the St. Louis Fed), showing the annual change in real disposable income per capita in the US. What seems to stump them most is that aside from the 2012 year end aberration (due to accelerated distribution of dividends ahead of the 2013 tax hikes) is that in November the series finally posted its first Y/Y decline (-0.1%) since the Lehman collapse. But as the chart notes, the data is "per capita" and as everyone knows, under the New Normal, some "per capitas" are more equal than other "per capitas." Enter the billionaires. As Bloomberg summarizes, "The richest people on the planet got even richer in 2013, adding $524 billion to their collective net worth, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a daily ranking of the world’s 300 wealthiest individuals. The aggregate net worth of the world’s top billionaires stood at $3.7 trillion at the market close on Dec. 31, according to the ranking. "The rich will keep getting richer in 2014," John Catsimatidis, the billionaire founder of real estate and energy conglomerate Red Apple Group Inc., said in a telephone interview from his New York office.

While the world may have become habituated to (and perhaps revels in, thank you social media exhibitionist culture) the fact that the NSA is watching anyone and everyone, intercepting, recording, and hacking every electronic exchange regardless if it involves foreign "terrorists" or US housewives, the discoveries from the Snowden whistleblowing campaign continue. The latest revelation from the biggest wholesale spying scandal since Nixon, exposed by Germany's Spiegel which continues the strategy of revealing Snowden leaks on a staggered, delayed basis, involves a back door access-focused NSA division called ANT, (which supposedly stands for Access Network Technology), described by Spiegel as "master carpenters" for the NSA's TAO (Tailored Access Operations, read more about TAO here). The ANT people have "burrowed into nearly all the security architecture made by the major players in the industry -- including American global market leader Cisco and its Chinese competitor Huawei, but also producers of mass-market goods, such as US computer-maker Dell." More importantly, thanks to Spiegel (and Snowden of course), the NSA's 50-page catalog of "backdoor penetration" techniques has been revealed.

• U.S. set to adopt Volcker rule to curb bank trading gambles (Reuters) After vote, lawsuits likely next hurdle for Volcker rule (Reuters)
• U.S. Congress budget talks could produce Tuesday deal, aides say (Reuters)
• Wealthy Go Frugal This Holiday Amid Uneven U.S. Recovery (BBG)
• Tearful Thai PM urges protesters to take part in election (Reuters)
• Fed’s Bullard Sees Higher QE Taper Odds as Labor Market Improves (BBG)
• Coeure Says ECB Would Offer More LTROs Only When Banks Can Lend (BBG)
• Inside China's Super-Sterile Chicken Farms (WSJ)
• Mandela Service Rivals JFK’s as Leaders Meet in South Africa (BBG)
• China data defy slowdown forecasts (FT), and of course the word is "data"
• Cold, ice grip U.S. as more snow to blanket East (Reuters)

• Nelson Mandela: 1918-2013 (Reuters)
• South Africans Flock to Nelson Mandela’s Home to Mourn His Death (BBG)
• Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden? Obama says won't choose between them for 2016 (Reuters)
• Fukushima water tanks: leaky and built with illegal labor (Reuters)
• Sears Holdings Files to Spin Off Lands' End Business (WSJ)
• Way cleared for landmark global trade deal (FT)
• U.S. Oil Prices Fall Sharply as Glut Forms on Gulf Coast (WSJ)
• German Factory Orders Decline in Sign of Uneven Recovery (BBG)
• FCC Unlikely to Bless a Comcast-TWC Deal: Regulator (WSJ)

• With website improved, Obama to pitch health plan (Reuters)
• Joe Biden condemns China over air defence zone (FT)
• Tally of U.S. Banks Sinks to Record Low (WSJ)
• Black Friday Weekend Spending Drop Pressures U.S. Stores (BBG)
• Cyber Monday Sales Hit Record as Amazon to EBay Win Shoppers (BBG)
• Ukraine's Pivot to Moscow Leaves West Out in the Cold (WSJ)
• Investment banks set to cut pay again despite rise in profits (FT)
• Worst Raw-Material Slump Since ’08 Seen Deepening (BBG)
• Democrats Face Battles in South to Hold the Senate (WSJ)
• Hong Kong reports 1st case of H7N9 bird flu (AP)
• In Fracking, Sand Is the New Gold (WSJ)

• China to Ease One-Child Policy (WSJ), China announces major economic and social reforms (Reuters)
• Consumers line up for launch of PlayStation 4 (USAToday)
• Trust frays between Obama, Democrats (Politico)
• Yellen Stands by Fed Strategy  (Hilsenrath)
• Hero to zero? Philippine president feels typhoon backlash (Reuters)
• Brussels warns Spain and Italy on budgets (FT)
• Moody’s Downgrades Four U.S. Banks on Federal Support Review  (BBG)
• CIA's Financial Spying Bags Data on Americans (WSJ)
• Germany Digs In Against Risk Sharing in EU Bank-Failure Plan (BBG)
• Bill Gates wants Norway's $800 billion fund to spend more in Africa, Asia (RTRS)

• Morning Humor from Hilsenrath - Fed Balance Sheet Not Seen Returning to Normal Until at Least 2019 (WSJ)
• Health Policies Canceled in Latest Hurdle for Obamacare (BBG)
• Was there anything RBS was not manipulating? RBS Said to Review Currency-Trading Practices Amid Probe (BBG)
• Sebelius to Testify Before House Panel (WSJ)
• And more humor: Spain's Statistics Institute Confirms End of Recession (WSJ) ... and now we await the triple dip
• Finally some credible reporting on Yellen's "foresight" - Yellen feared housing bust but did not raise public alarm (Reuters)
• Japan government moves closer to Fukushima takeover (FT)
• China to step up own security after new NSA allegations (Reuters)
• Blackstone Vies With Goldman in Spain Rental Housing Bet (BBG)
• In new U.S. budget talks, Republican proposal has flipped the script (Reuters)

• The ice breaks; fiscal talks set (The Hill); Ryan steps up to shape a deal (The Hill), as predicted here yesterday
• Republicans consider short-term U.S. debt ceiling increase (Reuters)
• Shutdown Standoff Shows Signs of a Thaw (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Clients in Cash as Schwab’s Options Hedge Default (BBG)
• Mitch McConnell, Senate GOP search for way out (Politico)
• Meredith Whitney Winds Down Brokerage Unit After Setting Up Fund (BBG)
• Washington Budget Chaos Keeps Fed Rates Low for Longer (BBG)
• Chinese Premier Outlines US Debt Concerns (FT)
• Saudis brace for 'nightmare' of U.S.-Iran rapprochement (Reuters)
• Obama Urges Action on Yellen’s Fed Nomination (Reuters)
• Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zidan Freed After Kidnap (WSJ)

• A U.S. Default Seen as Catastrophe Dwarfing Lehman’s Fall (BBG)
• Software, Design Defects Cripple Health-Care Website (WSJ)
• Gunmen kill 5 Egyptian soldiers near Suez Canal, 2 people die in blast (Reuters); Egypt death toll rises to 53, streets now calm (Reuters)
• Three retailers sell Apple iPhone 5C for $50 or less (Sun Sentinel)
• New American Economy Leaves Behind World Consumer (BBG)
• Dow's Exiles Often Have Last Laugh (WSJ)
• Macy's Puts China Online-Expansion Effort on Hold Amid Economic Slowdown (WSJ)
• Gold Befuddles Bernanke as Central Banks’ Losses at $545 Billion (BBG) - just ask the BIS gold selling team: they are unbefuffdled
• Markit Group Said to Avoid U.S. Antitrust Claims as EU Proceeds (BBG) - being owned by the banks has benefits
• Paulson leads charge into Greek banks (FT) - and scene for the Greek banking sector

It has been a quiet start to Quadruple Witching Friday (expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures) but expect that to change, as erratic price action is a recurring hallmark of Quad Witches, especially with persistent low volume and markets that tend to shut down for no reason. So far stocks have traded steady in Europe this morning, credit spreads widened and Bunds traded in positive territory as market participants positioned for the much-anticipated German elections which are to be held on Sunday, with exit polls to be made available after the close of polling stations at 6pm local time. Ahead of that, and as reported here previously, Germany’s AfD Eurosceptic party could win enough support in the general election on Sunday to gain seats in the German Bundestag, an opinion poll published for a leading newspaper has forecast for the first time. Basic materials and utilities underperformed in Europe, with RWE trading sharply lower in Germany after the company announced plans to cut its dividend by half (and with the Adidas fiasco yesterday, one wonders just how bad things in Europe really are).

• U.S., Russia to push for new Syria peace talks (Reuters)
• Elite Syrian Unit Scatters Chemical Arms Stockpile (WSJ)
• Obama to nominate Summers as Fed chief: Nikkei (Reuters)
• Boehner Wants Joint Talks on Debt, Budget (WSJ)
• House Republicans go for broke in fiscal battles (Reuters)
• Pimco, BlackRock Together Received More Than a Quarter of Verizon's $49 Billion Bond Deal (WSJ)
• Insane financial system lives post-Lehman (Gillian Tett)
• JPM to add $2.5 billion to its litigation reserves in the second half of the year (WSJ)
• Goldman’s Zurich offices visited over working-hours complaint (FT)