B+

One of the more curious conspiracy theories that has appeared in the past 24 hours, or since yesterday's so far unexplained crude oil flash crash without a subsequent corresponding jump (those only happen in equities it appears), is that Saudi Arabia has decided to come to the aid of the Obama administration two months ahead of the election, and to pump enough crude into the system to offset the pricing in of the inevitable liquidity tsunami from the now global QEternity, or at least until such time as the election passes. Partially confirming this speculation was the FT's report that Saudi Arabia has offered its main customers in the US, Europe and Asia extra oil supplies through the end of the year, a sign the world’s largest exporter is worried about the impact of rising prices on the global economy. Reuters adds, citing a Gulf source that "We would like to see the price coming down and we are working to bring it down... The price now, we believe is high, and it's not supported by fundamentals at all. It's just speculation and geopolitics." "The majority of OPEC countries prefer around $100, including Saudi Arabia," he said, adding that $100 per barrel was "right now the ideal price for the majority of OPEC countries ... the majority is all except one or two." "We think the oil market is well balanced," the Gulf source added. This comes a day after fellow OPEC member Iran, whose output has been substantially curtailed in recent months as a result of a global embargo (with notable exemptions for key Iran clients India and China) made it clear that it would be happy with crude rising to $150 for obvious reasons. Obviously Iran is in the "minority" according to the Gulf source. And while the reasoning for Saudi Arabia to do all in its power to promote amicable relations with America's leadership is easily explainable, it is far less clear if Saudi Arabia can actually do much if anything to really prop up crude production, prop down the price of crude and gas at the pump, and support Obama's reelection chances.

Lot of noon / afternoon official chatter on the wires, but eventually nothing highly conclusive.

And oops… I still have the Blues.

"The bottom line is simple: The Fed and the ECB are directing and attempting to orchestrate the grossest misallocation and mispricing of capital in the history of mankind. Their problem is that their actions have enormous unintended and even (eventually) intended consequences which serve to negate their actions in the shorter run, and which could create even bigger problems than we currently face in the near future. Kicking the can is not a viable policy for us now. The private sector knows all this, consciously and/or sub-consciously, which is why I feel these current policy settings are doomed to fail. Having said all that, the one area which for some reason still holds onto hope that Draghi and Bernanke can still perform feats of "magic" is the financial market, which central bankers assume, rely on and are happy to encourage Pavlovian responses. The reality here though is that even financial markets are, collectively, either sensing or assigning a half-life to the "positives" of central bank debasement policies, which to me means that even markets are only suggesting a short-term benefit from the latest policy actions. This is not what Draghi and Bernanke are hoping for, but in order for them to see the half-life outcome averted they know that we need to see major political and structural real economy reforms which somehow make Western workers competitive and hopeful again. The track record of the last four to five years inspires very little confidence that we will see such great necessary reformist strides taken anytime soon."

The unleashing of QE3--unlimited money-printing in support of the financial Status Quo-- is proof the Fed has failed, failed, failed. If anything the Fed has done in the past four years had actually had a positive consequence in the real economy, Bernanke would have identifed that policy and expanded it in a measured response. Instead he went all-in, emptying the Fed's toolbox in one big dump: unlimited money-printing, unlimited propping of the mortgage market, unlimited support of low Treasury rates and three more years of zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP). Here is the translation of the Fed Chairman's public comments: whatever. Did you see any of his testimony? It was painfully obvious that either 1) he was sky-high on Ibogaine or 2) he was just going through the motions, duly enunciating PR "cover" that he finds tiresome to repeat and impossible to say with any sincerity or conviction. His body language and delivery said: "You think I believe this canned shuck and jive? Get real, chumps."

Liar, Liar, Fed on Fire!!! Why no one else has called this thinly vieled bailout out is truly beyond me. Well, the retail and consumer discretionary sector will feel the heat if everyone believes Bernanke and I end up being right... again!

Back in January, Pulitzer winning journalist Chris Hedges sued President Obama and the recently passed National Defense Authorization Act, specifically challenging the legality of the Authorization for Use of Military Force or, the provision that authorizes military detention for people deemed to have "substantially supported" al Qaeda, the Taliban or "associated forces." Hedges called the president's action allowing indefinite detention, which was signed into law with little opposition from either party "unforgivable, unconstitutional and exceedingly dangerous." He attacked point blank the civil rights farce that is the neverending "war on terror" conducted by both parties, targetting whom exactly is unclear, but certainly attaining ever more intense retaliation from foreigners such as the furious attacks against the US consulates in Egypt and Libya. He asked  "why do U.S. citizens now need to be specifically singled out for military detention and denial of due process when under the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force the president can apparently find the legal cover to serve as judge, jury and executioner to assassinate U.S. citizens." A few months later, in May, U.S. District Judge Katherine Forrest ruled in favor of a temporary injunction blocking the enforcement of the authorization for military detention. Today, the war againt the true totalitarian terror won a decisive battle, when in a 112-opinion, Judge Forrest turned the temporary injunction, following an appeal by the totalitarian government from August 6, into a permanent one.

Whatever... Final sign off by Germany and an ESM start-up session for 08 Oct.

Yes, Sir, I Can Boogie.

Spanish aid “not urgent, given actual market levels”…

No Boogie?

• Germany Can Ratify ESM Fund With Conditions, Court Rules (Bloomberg)
• Obama Discusses Iran Nuclear Threat With Netanyahu (Bloomberg)
• Stocks, Euro Gain as Court Allows ESM; Irish Bonds Climb (Bloomberg)
• U.S. cautions Japan, China over escalating islands row (Reuters)
• Draghi alone cannot save the euro (FT)
• 'New York Post' Runs Boldest Anti-Obama Ad Yet (Bloomberg)
• Another urban legend: Fish Oil Pills Don’t Fix Heart Ills in 24-Year Data Review (Bloomberg)
• Troika Says Portugal’s Program is ‘On Track’ (Bloomberg)
• Russia Wants to Steer Clear of 'Gas War' (WSJ)
• U.S. Said Set to Target First Non-Bank Firms for Scrutiny (Bloomberg)
• Wen Says China’s Policy Strength Will Secure Growth Targets (Bloomberg)
• UK faces clash with Brussels on City (FT)

Below is an extract of the full statement whose summary kept everyone up this morning, most certainly the headline reacting algos, and which the robots so far seem to like more than dislike.

"...the only smiles you see in Wall Street are on the photocopied photos of the missing that family and friends have taped to walls, mailboxes and lampposts. It may take a long time for smiles to naturally return to Wall Street. It may take a long while to find those criminals who took our smiles and our friends. But, we will have patience. As our President said – "We will not tire. We will not falter. We will not fail!"

• Germany says U.S. debt levels "much too high" (Reuters)
• Netanyahu ramps up Iran attack threat (Reuters)
• Burberry plummets by most ever, slashes guidance, rattles Luxury-Goods Industry as Revenue Growth (Bloomberg)
• FoxConn Again Faces Labor Issue on iPhones (NYT)
• Southern whites troubled by Romney's wealth, religion (Reuters)
• China's Xi not seen in public because of ailment (Reuters)
• Another California muni default: Oakdale, Calif., Restructuring Debt, Planning Rate Raise After Default (Bond Buyer)
• Spain's PM expects "reasonable" terms for any new aid (Reuters)
• Bernanke Proves Like No Other Fed Chairman on Joblessness (Bloomberg) - Ineffective like no other?
• John Lennon’s Island Goes on Sale as Irish Unpick Property Boom (Bloomberg)

Last August, a 400 point move in the DJIA was the norm. This August, a 50+ point drop in the second coming of the "Balls to the Wall" DJIA was the green light for sheer market panic. While unknown if it is the cause, or effect, of this collapse in volatility, the NYSE just reported that August cash volumes imploded by exactly 50% from last year, one thing is certain: for banks, which no longer make money on net interest margin courtesy of ZNIRP, and $1.6 trillion in inert reserves, the bulk of which are used to buy TSYs, then promptly repo them back to the Fed and use the cash proceeds to buy 200x+ P/E stocks, imploding stock volumes mean only one thing - a collapse in revenues and profits, terminations of entire divisions, collapse in tax revenues for the US Treasury, an increase in deficit, the need for more debt issuance, and a green light for the Fed to monetizing even more supply. And just to avoid the noise from "unseasonal" Y/Y comparisons, in August total ADV dropped by 12.6% from July. ETF volume imploded by two thirds from last year, and 14% from last month. Cue the financial earnings forecast reductions ahead of Q3 results.

As of Friday, total US debt subject to the limit was $16.006 trillion, or $387 billion below the latest and greatest official debt ceiling. In the past 3 months the US has been raising debt at a slower pace than usual precisely for this reason. Debt issuance will now pick up at far faster pace as the trendline mean reversion reasserts itself. It means that sometime over the next few months, and certainly before the end of the year, the US debt ceiling will be breached (with all the usual tactics employed to delay this event from happening as much as possible, including resuming the pillaging of various government retirement funds) as the Treasury itself warned. It also means that either just before or just after the presidential election, the topic of the debt ceiling will be once again upon us. As a reminder, the reason why the market plunged back in August of 2011 is because as the GOP proved unwilling to compromise, suddenly everyone, led by Tim Geithner, realized just how close to a failed auction, read endgame, the US was, and the dire need for a wake up call became paramount. Furthermore as is well-known, the only stimulus Pavlovian politicians react to is a market collapse, which not only instills the fear of the "401(k)" god falling to earth, but lights up the switchboards as concerned "voters" suddenly realize that all their mark-to-Bernanke's market "wealth" may disappear in a puff of smoke. It is now, courtesy of Bob Woodward, that we learn just how close we came. And since the polarity and discord in Congress after the election, already at record levels, will soar to new all time highs after November, it is safe to say that the debt ceiling debacle deja vu is coming, and this time it will make the first one seem like child's play.

Who in their right mind would buy any government bonds today?

It took the ECB a year of endless behind the scenes Machiavellian scheming to restart the SMP program (which was conceived by Jean-Claude Trichet in May 2010, concurrent with the first Greek bailout). The markets soared with euphoria that this time will be different, and that the program which is a masterclass in central planning paradox, as it is "unlimited" yet "sterilized", while based on "conditions" none of which have been disclosed, and will somehow be pari passu for new bond purchases while it retains seniority for previous purchases of Greek and other PIGS bonds, will work - it won't, and the third time will not be the charm as we showed before. Yet it has been just 48 hours since the "bailout" announcement and already Europe is being Europe: namely, it turns out that nobody wants the bailout.