B+

The negative feedback look between Brazil's political and economic crises is serving to make each day worse than the last. Tuesday was no exception...

One of the more remarkable characteristics of American life is our passive acceptance of systems that are so obviously completely insane. Yes, I refer to our healthcare system, a.k.a. sickcare because in America sickness is profitable and health is not, and healthcare profiteering that would be the envy of pirates and warlords everywhere is the norm.

This long-term erosion of earned income and household finances does not enable "growth" that is based on rising spending and borrowing. If these are no longer possible, the status quo has no Plan B.

Presenting Exhibit A: Goldman's latest YTD performance breakdown by strategy basket. It reveals is that far from suffering even the most modest correction, the "Hedge Fund Hotel" strategy (aka the most concentrated holdings), is massively outperforming not only the broader market, but has returned double the second most profitable strategy - investing in companies with high revenue growth. In a world in which the Fed just saw its credibility crushed, expect this to change shortly.

Each of the 3 stages needed to move to a sustainable price have to be given time to play out. The rig count story has been told with a brutally fast 60 percent drop. Meaningful production declines are on. Next will be inventory draw downs; in that order. As to the latter, we’re just beginning to see the effects of the rig count. Large drawdowns will be here sooner than predicted.

For those of you who don’t want to take the time reading through the ponderous 7000-word transcript of yesterday’s FOMC press conference, we bring you the shorter Janet Yellen, translated from Fedspeak into plain English. Enjoy!

For the second consecutive day, Bashar al-Assad pounded ISIS targets across Syria on Friday, serving notice that Russia's stepped up "technical" and "logistical" support may have turned the tide in the country's four-year civil war. With Moscow having called Washington's bluff, Obama instructs Defense Secretary Ashton Carter to liaise with the Russian military while in Tehran, Major General Qassem Soleimani lays bare America's ISIS strategy.

• The bearish dovish Fed: Shares Fall After Federal Reserve Keeps Rates on Hold (WSJ)
• Developed, emerging markets diverge as Fed keeps rates steady (Reuters)
• Yellen May Emulate Taper Template and Raise Rates in December (BBG)
• Russia Raises Prospect of Sending Troops Into Combat in Syria (BBG)
• Rigged markets 1: U.S. Said to Investigate Chicago Trader as Spoof Probes Broaden (BBG)
• Rigged markets 2: Primary Dealers Rigged Treasury Auctions, Investor Lawsuit Says (BBG)
• Rigged markets 3: The Man Who Took KKR’s Stock for a Ride (WSJ)

Will Janet Yellen proudly put the Fed on the side of the angels, announcing that she and her crew have decided to move the Fed’s key interest rate to a more normal level… regardless of how much it costs the cronies? No, she won’t. Once you begin manipulating markets, it’s a hard habit to break. After nearly seven years of emergency financial policies, we are now in a permanent emergency..."What if they say it’s my fault? What if they call it the Yellen Depression? Oh, no... It’s not fair... It’s not fair... Boo-hoo... sob... sob... I should have stayed at Harvard. I’d have tenure. I’d have a nice pension. George and I could go the Martha’s Vineyard in the summer. It would be such a nice life."

Every quarter we pay particular interest to the results reported by Fedex not only due to its position as the leading company in worldwide logistics but due to its status as a bellwether in global trade. And not surprisingly, following a bevy of reports here and elsewhere confirming the plunge in global trade, Fedex did not disappoint, or rather it did when it reported non-GAAP EPS of $2.42 missing already reduced consensus expectations of $2.45, but it also cut its full year 2016 EPS guidance from $10.60-$11.10 to $10.40-$10.90 (below the consensus $10.83) proving yet again that hopes for EPS growth are just as misplaced as those for multiple expansion at a time when the Fed is preparing to hike rates and as China unleashes Quantitative Tightening.

Ffor whatever reason starting in the last hour of trading and continuing until the close, the Shanghai Composite - after trading largely unchanged - went from red on the day to up 4.9% after hitting 5.9% minutes before the close - the biggest one day surge since March 2009 - and nearly erasing the 6.1% drop from the past two days in just about 60 minutes of trading, providing a solid hour of laughter to bystanders and observers in the process.

Day after day investors are treated to 5-Star Morningstar managers, so-called "strategists", economissseds with entire religions on the line, and circus barkers who proclaim that: a) The US is decoupled from the rest of the world; and/or b) The US is the cleanest dirty shirt; an/or c) There are no indications that the US economy is near a recession. Here are four simple charts - from, just today's data - that destroy this glass half full and rose-colored ignorance of reality...

After years of militarizing the local police in America, California may just have chalked one up for liberty-seekers (though we are not holding our breath). A bill to stop the militarization of California police departments received final approval in the state legislature last Thursday. The bill, which specifically points out the dangers of police militarization, saying it would “declare that this is a matter of statewide concern,”  is now on its way to the desk of Governor Jerry Brown.

The build up took months... but then the whole mess came crashing down in one weekend. By then it was too late to get your money out...

The tone from investors in the latest Bank of America survey is clear: as Michael Harnett summarizes it, the one prevailing theme is "unambiguous pessimism."  Bottom line: either markets soar, or something bad is about to happen: to wit: "Unambiguous pessimism means risk assets riper for a rally (note investors don’t want a Fed hike this week). If no rally, then markets ominously hinting “recession” and/or “default” imminent." Good luck Janet.