Bond

Wake up world, the EU hasn’t experienced 2% inflation since BEFORE the Crisis erupted in earnest in 2012. Three NIRP cuts and over €1 trillion in QE later, the EU is on the verge of deflation again.

Considering the plethora of specials on the curve, which included both the 2Y, 3Y and the 10Y, it is hardly surprising that many took opportunity to cover the structural short headed into today's auction by purchasing paper in the primary market.

Man Group, which runs $76.8 billion in assets, said on its website that its $4.4 billion AHL Diversified fund lost 5.1% on Thursday. Among other funds to have been running bets, to a greater or lesser extent, against the euro were Brevan Howard Asset Management, which oversees about $25 billion in assets; Tudor Investment Corp.; Moore Capital Management; and Caxton Associates, said investors. "Pretty much everyone was short the euro. The view was very clear for everyone."

While it will hardly come as a surprise to its employees (who were warned a week ago that 25% of all fixed income workers would lose their jobs in the immediate future) most had hoped that the bailed out bank would at least have the ethics to wait with the layoffs until after the new year, now just three weeks away. It did not.

Sales of American Eagle gold coins at the U.S. Mint surged in November, with gold demand nearly tripling month-over-month. China's gold reserves rose by another 21 tonnes in November, the biggest bout of gold buying since China began disclosing monthly data on it's gold reserves in June

Despite these very high levels of demand, gold prices fell sharply in November - from $1,141/oz to $1,070/oz or 6.6%.

Last week we asked (rhetorically) if "something just blew up in junk?" We have the answer today, as triple-hooks (CCC-rated debt) in the junk bond market have crashed through the worst levels of 2011 and are now at the highest yields since July 2009. Amid this complacency still reigns in the equity market (just as it did when the last credit cycle turned).

Over the weekend, in its latest quarterly presentation, the Bank of International Settlements made what may have been a very premature assessment that China is now contained. Judging by events in the past 24 hours, the reality is anything but.

The public-to-private sector "revolving door" has crossed into the macabre twilight zone.

While we were the first to mock co-workers' contention that Farook's radicalization could be confirmed by the size of his beard, we would note that although you cannot judge a book by its cover, it does indeed appear as though some manner of transformation might have taken place in or around Farook's two visits to Saudi Arabia.

With Draghi's Friday comments, which as we noted previously were meant solely to push markets higher, taking place after both Europe and Asia closed for the week, today has been a session of catch up for both Asian and Europe, with Japan and China up 1% and 0.3% respectively, and Europe surging 1.4%, pushing government bond yields lower as the dollar resumes its climb on expectations that Draghi will jawbone the European currency lower once more, which in turn forced Goldman to announce two hours ago that it is "scaling back our expectation for Euro downside."

"While funding continued to be available, such a large negative basis indicates potential market dislocations. And this may call into question how smoothly US dollar funding conditions will adjust in the event of an increase in US onshore interest rates. Similar pricing anomalies have also emerged in interest rate swap markets recently, raising related concerns."

"It is our humble belief that the consensus at the Fed does not fully understand the magnitude of the problems in corporate credit markets and the unintended consequences of their policy actions."

As we approach the Fed meeting expect markets to get more volatile. While the odds favor a move, it isn’t a sure thing until it is actually done. We found out last week what happens when forward guidance turns out to be forward misdirection. All those traders who thought they had a sure thing, who assumed that Draghi wouldn’t dare disappoint the market, got whipped. Whipped good.