fixed

With the SEC moving to head off the risk of a bond market meltdown triggered by a dangerous combination of illiquidity and bond fund proliferation, WSJ decided to see which fund providers are the most at risk in a crisis. The list may surprise you...

The aggregate Buybacks to Free Cash Flow ratio for the S&P 500 exceeded 100% for the first time since October 2009. The ratio hit 108% on a TTM basis at the end of Q2, which represented a 12.9% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 42% increase year-over-year. The 10-year median ratio was 72.2%. And that, in a nutshell, is why the market is tumbling today - the biggest buyers of stock in the past 2 years, the corporations themselves, just priced themselves out of the market and no longer generate the cash needed to push their own stock to new all time highs.

In short, the next round of the great crisis is beginning.  It will take time to unfold, but we have reached Peak Central Bank Intervention. When Central Banks loosen policy and the markets fail to respond, you're in the End Game.

While Asian trading overnight started off on the right foot, chasing US momentum higher, things rapidly shifted once Europe opened as attention moved back to global growth fears, global central banks losing credibility, as well as miners and the ongoing Volkswagen fiasco.

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It's no secret that Brazil was long expected to be the epicenter of any future EM crisis just as it was, in many ways, the picture of EM success during better times. That said, even we’ve been surprised with the pace at which the situation has deteriorated and in the wake of the S&P downgrade the market is now left to ponder just how much worse things can get. According to Goldman the list of obstacles is laughably long.

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As of today you really can pay your taxes, your credit cards, your mortgage, shop at Costco, and buy your groceries without so much as a bank account while using sound money.

For those of you who don’t want to take the time reading through the ponderous 7000-word transcript of yesterday’s FOMC press conference, we bring you the shorter Janet Yellen, translated from Fedspeak into plain English. Enjoy!

The current surge in deflationary pressures is not just due to the recent fall in oil prices, but rather a global epidemic of slowing economic growth. While Janet Yellen addressed this "disinflationary" wave during her post-meeting press conference, the Fed still maintains the illusion of confidence that economic growth will return shortly. Unfortunately, this has been the Fed's "Unicorn" since 2011 as annual hopes of economic recovery have failed to materialize.

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With a 54-0 record without a rate hike (better than Floyd Mayweather's), and 58 Economisseds expecting no change, 3 a half-pregnant 13bps hike, and 53 expecting a 25bps hike, The Fed was always going to break someone's heart today. Bond yields and the USD were tumbling into the decision, which appeared correct as The Fed chickened out again...

• **FOMC: NO POLICY CHANGE, 0-0.25% TARGET 'REMAINS APPROPRIATE'
  
• **FOMC: GLOBAL ECON,FIN EVENTS 'MAY RESTRAIN ECON ACTIVITY'
  
• **FOMC: VOTE 9-1; LACKER DISSENTS, WANTED 25 BPS HIKE

Given the "no hike", it is clear that, as we noted, Goldman is still in charge and Hilsy is still leaker-in-chief. All eyes now on the dot-plots as The Fed desperately tries to regain some credibility, stifle uncertainty, and calmly reassure markets that "we've got your back."

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2000.5, 10Y 2.26%, 2Y 77.5bps, EUR 1.1330, Gold $1118

Earlier today, Jefferies which is now a part of Leucadia, provided this much anticipated glimpse into how the rest of Wall Street is doing. The answer, if Jefferies is any indication, is "quote horribly" because just like two of the past four quarters, Q3 was also a disaster and indicative of nothing short of a trading bloodbath on Wall Street in the past three months of trading and especially August. In fact, it was so bad for Jefferies, it reported a massive 31% plunge in total revenues down to $579 million resulting in net income of a tiny $2.5 million as a result of what may be only its first negative fixed income revenue print since the financial crisis.

Kyle Bass shared his macro views during the “Squawk on the Street”

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