8.5%

A prelude for the monetary madness...

Yesterday afternoon's "recovery" has come and gone, because just like that, in a matter of minutes, stuff just broke once again courtsy of a USDJPY which has been a one way liquidation street since hitting 106.30 just before Europe open to 105.6 as of this writing: U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD DROPS 15 BASIS POINTS TO 1.99%; S&P FUTURES PLUNGE 23PTS, OR 1.2%, AS EU STOCKS DROP 2.54%.

Only this time Europe is once again broken with periphery yields exploding, after Spain earlier failed to sell the maximum target of €3.5 billion in bonds, instead unloading only €3.2 billion, and leading to this: PORTUGAL 10-YR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD CLIMBS 30 BPS TO 3.58%; IRISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DECLINE; YIELD RISES 20 BPS TO 1.90%; SPANISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD JUMPS 29 BPS TO 2.40%.

And the punchline, as usual, is Greece, whose 10 Year is now wider by over 1% on the session(!), to just about 9%.

Today US activity will be very light given the Columbus Day holiday. As DB summarizes, we have a relatively quiet day for data watchers today but the calendar will pick up tomorrow and beyond with a big focus on inflation numbers amongst other things. Indeed tomorrow will see the release of Germany’s ZEW survey alongside CPI prints from the UK, France and Spain. Wednesday’s data highlights will include the US retail sales for September, the Fed’s Beige Book, CPI readings from China and Germany, US PPI, and the NY Fed Empire State survey. Draghi will speak twice on Wednesday which could also be a source for headlines. On Thursday, we will get Industrial Production stats and the Philly Fed Survey from the US on top of the usual weekly jobless claims. European CPI will also be released on Wednesday. We have the first reading of October’s UofM Consumer Sentiment on Friday along with US building permits/housing starts. Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed Conference on Friday (entitled “Inequality of Economic Opportunity”) will also be closely followed.

In the new normal, companies can one second trade with a market cap of hundreds of millions (or over a billion in the case of negative cash flow GTAT) and the next unexpectedly report they are bankrupt, or, as SODA just did, report guidance that is just about as bad.: "We are very disappointed in our recent performance," said Daniel Birnbaum, Chief Executive Officer of SodaStream. "Our U.S. business underperformed due to lower than expected demand for our soda makers and flavors which was the primary driver of the overall shortfall in the third quarter. While we were successful over the last few years in establishing a solid base of repeat users in the U.S., we have not succeeded in attracting new consumers to our home carbonation system at the rate we believe should be achieved.  The third quarter results are a clear indication that we must alter our course and improve our execution across the board."

There may be one great conspiracy dictating the course of the capital market, but if there is not, what is the near-term outlook for the dollar?  

So with regards to BABA’s $230 billion market cap at week’s end, you can say this: None dare call it price discovery! What it shows is that Wall Street is well and truly off it rocker. The Chinese swindlers behind BABA didn’t even have to tap their home market. These preposterously over-valued shares were sold overwhelmingly to Wall Street - to the gamblers, speculators and robo-traders that have occupied what was once a reasonably honest capital market. So why did Wall Street capitalize an opaque mass merchant operating in a precarious economy at 27X sales?  The answer is that Wall Street is a momentum driven casino that is now over-valuing everything that moves and all that stands still. That’s the ultimate evil of monetary central planning. Having destroyed honest price discovery in the financial markets, the Fed now “accommodates” the speculators one meeting at a time - in deathly fear of a hissy fit.

With the snoozer of an FOMC meeting in the rearview mirror, as well as Scotland's predetermined independence referndum, last week's key events: the BABA IPO and the iPhone 6 release, are now history, which means the near-term catalysts are gone and the coming week will be far more relaxed, if hardly boring. Here is what to expect.

• Obama orders U.S. airstrikes in Syria against Islamic State (Reuters)
• Obama Relying on Mideast Allies to Counter Islamic State (BBG)
• Scotland Nationalists Claim U.K. Oil in 40-Year Campaign (BBG)
• Scottish Polls Embolden Catalans Pushing Rajoy for Vote (BBG)
• Royal Bank of Scotland: RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence (Guardian)
• Most Hedge-Fund Managers Are Overpaid, Unigestion Says (BBG)
• China Inflation Softens to Four-Month Low (WSJ)
• Munger Hosts Groupies, Mocks Wall Street, Praises Buffett (BBG)

Over a month after the crash of flight MH 17 over east Ukraine, and with the confiscated Air Traffic Control voice recording still kept confidential by a western-led task force for reasons unknown, overnight the Dutch Safety Board released its preliminary report on the causes of the crash. As the AP reported, it agency "stopped short of saying the Boeing 777 was shot down by a missile, but its findings appear to point to that conclusion. It also did not say who might have been responsible." Actually, what the Dutch report did say is the following: MH17 was struck by multiple "high-energy objects from outside the aircraft," causing it to break up over eastern Ukraine, a preliminary report into the deadly aviation disaster concluded Tuesday. And while the punditry eagerly tries to once again cast all the blame on a pro-Russian rebel fired missile, we are stunned that nobody has even mentioned the possibility of a bullet volley by a warplane taking down the Malaysian Boeing.

Today, high inflation seems so remote that many analysts treat it as little more than a theoretical curiosity. They are wrong to do so. No matter how much central banks may wish to present the level of inflation as a mere technocratic decision, it is ultimately a social choice. And some of the very pressures that helped to contain inflation for the past two decades have been retreating. Modern central banking has worked wonders to bring down inflation. Ultimately, however, a central bank's anti-inflation policies can work only within the context of a macroeconomic and political framework that is consistent with price stability. Inflation may be dormant, but it is certainly not dead.

Say hello to the next financial crisis, brought to you courtesy of the dumbest new bill of the week: H.R. 5148: Access to Affordable Mortgages Act.

• Confusion as Ukraine and Russia announce progress towards peace (Reuters)... but not for stock buying algos, they know everything
• Obama Expresses Skepticism About Possible Ukraine Cease-Fire (WSJ)
• Fighters Unwind in Russia Where Beer Doesn’t Spell Death (BBG)
• Despite dangers, U.S. journalist Sotloff was determined to record Arab Spring's human toll (Reuters)
• New Beheading Video Spurs Calls for Global Response (BBG)
• Christie’s Spending on Outside Lawyers Passes $50 Million (BBG)
• IEX to Apply for Exchange Status (WSJ)
• UK says not ruling out airstrikes against Islamic State, says hostage video genuine (Reuters)

For the 6th week of the last 8, Treasury yields declined with 30Y pressing to 3.05% (and 10Y 2.32%) handles to 15-month lows. US equity markets saw volume crater as the early high-stops were run in the EU session and low-stops run in the US session before the ubiquitous EU close ramp lifted futures to VWAP and S&P cash to 2000.xx where it stayed for the rest of the day in a wholly unrigged way. Trannies ended the week red and Russell the best. The USD Index closed at 13-month highs (up 7 weeks in a row). Despite USD strength, gold and silver rose 0.5% on the week but oil was the big winner +2.4% (testing $96) as copper tumbled 2%. Credit markets closed at their wides (as stocks closed at their highs). Interestingly, once the Sept POMO schedule was released, TSYs sold off on the day to close red (but end 4-7bps lower on the week). VIX closed unch today but the ridiculous late-day panic-buying spree in futures grabbed stocks back above the crucial 2000 level for the S&P. Year-to-date, Treasuries lead +16.75% as the S&P (+8.5%) overtook gold (+6.7%) in the last few days.