Australian Dollar

One of the most important decisions participants in the foreign exchange must make is whether to view the dramatic pullback in most of the major foreign currencies seen in the early days of the new year as a reversal of the trend or as simply an overdue correction.   Our technical analysis sides with the latter and we anticipate renewed dollar weakness in the period ahead. 

We would be forced to reconsider if the euro fell through the $1.2980 area or if sterling fell below $1.60.  Although the dollar's sharp gains against the yen have left it over-extended, we see no compelling technical sign that a reversal is at hand.  Just like ECB's Draghi wielding Outright Market Transaction scheme drove down Spanish and Italian yields, Japan's Abe's rhetoric has been sufficient to drive the yen down without lifting a finger or spending cent.

The holiday week saw the dollar consolidate against most of the major currencies.  The yen was the main exception as its losses were extended under the aggressive signals coming from the new Japanese government.   

At the end of the week, the other key consideration, the US fiscal cliff made its presence felt.  The recent pattern remained intact.  News that gives the participants a sense that the cliff may be averted encourages risk taking, which means in the foreign exchange market, the sale of dollars and yen.  

News that makes participants more fearful that the political dysfunction failed to avert the cliff and send the world's largest economy into recession, generally see the dollar and yen recover.  This is what happened in very thin markets just ahead of the weekend as Obama's ling last ditch negotiating stance seemed to reflect a retreat from his earlier compromises.

The US dollar is sporting a softer profile today.  It had initially extended its gains after recovering in North America yesterday. In Japanese candlestick terms the euro and sterling had recorded "shooting stars", in essence opening on their highs and finishing on their lows.  Additional profit-taking was seen in Asia, earlier today.  The euro was pushed below its 20-day moving average for the first time since Dec 11.  Sterling fared better but still extended yesterday's losses.  However, in the European morning, both currencies have recovered to move back into yesterday's ranges.

The price action can be attributed to thinning market conditions and the recovery of the yen.  Indeed, "sell the rumor buy the fact" gains in the yen, may have pressured the other currencies as cross positions were also unwound.   The dollar has stabilized after slipping through the JPY84.20 area to trade below the previous day's low for the first time since Dec 10. 

The US dollar moved lower over the past week against the major currencies, with the notable exception of the Japanese yen.  The greenback's technical tone has deteriorated.  The euro and sterling appear to have convincingly broken above significant down trend lines.  With the holiday season upon us, there seems to be no compelling technical reason not to look for a continuation of dollar weakness into the end of the year.  Few are incentivized to fight the trend.

The extent of the Fed's easing, and the implication of its guidance, suggests an even more dovish posture than the expansion of QE3+ (remember it was purposely open-ended, unlike QE1 and QE2). While the euro zone economy appears to be contracting this quarter at a slightly faster pace than in Q3, the slowdown in the US is more dramatic.  Growth may be more than cut in half from the 2.7% annual pace seen in Q3.   The fiscal cliff is the main cause of consternation at the moment.  Although there is private negotiations taking place, the public posturing is what investors have to guide them, and it is not particularly flattering.

• MSM discovers window dressing: Fund Managers Lift Results With Timely Trading Sprees (WSJ)
• White House Unyielding on Debt Limit (WSJ)
• Obama, Boehner talk; Geithner prepared to go off "cliff" (Reuters)
• Republicans urged to resist tax rises (FT)
• China looms large over Japanese poll (FT)
• As predicted here two months ago, Greek Bond Buyback Leads S&P to Cut to Selective Default (BBG)
• Japan opposition LDP set to win solid election majority – polls (BBG), but...
• Japan Opposition LDP’s Main Ally Cautions Abe on BOJ Pressure (BBG)
• U.S. and Europe Tackle Russia Trade (WSJ)
• King Seen Maintaining QE as Osborne Extends Fiscal Squeeze (BBG)
• Syria pound fall suggests currency crisis (FT)
• Irish budget seeks extra €3.5bn (FT)
• U.K. Extends Cuts Due to Poor Outlook (WSJ)
• ECB Seen Refraining From Rate Cuts as Yields Sink on Bond Plan (BBG)

A consolidative tone threatening to emerging in the foreign exchange market, as prices churn awaiting not only today's press conference following the ECB meeting, but also tomorrow's US employment data and prospects for an expansion of QE3+ at next week's FOMC meeting. 

Five major central banks were to meet this week, with only the Reserve Bank of Australia poised to act.  They did cut rates, but the accompanying statement did not tip the hand of the next move.  The market took advantage of the jobs data's favorable optics to reduce the likelihood of a follow up cut in February to about 50/50.  

The details of the employment report were really weaker than it appeared.  The 13.9k increase in jobs is misleading as it was driven exclusively by part-time jobs.  Full time work actually fell 4.2k, the first decline in four months.  The unexpected decline in the unemployment rate to 5.2% from 5.4% in Sept and Oct was a function of a decline in the participation rate.  The Australian dollar has traded now (barely) on both sides of yesterday's range.  Offers in the $1.05 area continue to slow the Aussie's ascent.

Pathway to depression. 

The main overnight event, if not very surprising, was the formal announcement of the power moves at the top of China from the now concluding 18th Communist Party Congress, which occured largely as expected. To summarize: "Xi Jinping took the helm Thursday of a new, trimmed down Communist Party leadership that insiders said was shaped less by the daunting economic and political challenges facing China over the next decade than by bitter personal and factional rivalries within a secretive Party elite.  In a surprise move, Mr. Xi replaced outgoing Party chief Hu Jintao as head of the powerful Central Military Commission, which controls the armed forces, making Mr. Hu the first Communist Chinese leader to cede all formal powers without bloodshed, purges or political unrest. But the new leadership lineup did not include the two figures with the strongest track record on political reform, dimming prospects that a new generation of rulers is committed to tackling vested interests within its own ranks." In other words and just like after the US elections - to quote the announcement during every 2:15 FOMC release from now until eternity - "no change, repeat, no change" (and the SHCOMP closing down 1.22%, and the Hang Seng down by over 1.5% more or less confirmed this). An interactive infographic of who's the new who in China can be found here, while a summary of what this means and what to expect are here and here.  Elsewhere, the other main event was the formal announcement that, as everyone certainly expected, Europe officially is now in a recession. The euro-area economy slipped into a recession for the second time in four years, with GDP falling 0.1 percent in the third quarter. The official start date of Europe's recession is now Q3 2011. And with October Eurozone CPI pushing at a perky pace of 2.5%, one can add stagflation to the official list of terms haunting Europe.

If May Day is when Europe celebrates labor and jobs (if any), November 14 is its opposite, bizarro cousin as today Europe wakes up to a dead(er than usual) economy. The reason: virtually every European country is on strike. From BusinessWeek: "Spanish workers staged a second general strike this year as unions across Europe prepared the biggest coordinated protests yet against budget cuts that policy makers say are needed to end the region’s debt crisis. In Spain, unions said most auto and metal workers joined the strike, even as power demand was just 13 percent below usual. One of Portugal’s two biggest labor groups also called a strike, partial walkouts are planned in Greece and Italy, and French unions are urging workers to join protest marches. “This is a strike against the suicidal economic policies of the government,” Ignacio Fernandez Toxo, head of Spain’s CCOO union, told supporters late yesterday." In other words, Europe's economy which is already doing swimmingly, is about to see 1/60th of its Q4 GDP removed as virtually no economic goods or services are produced today.