Brazil

I go schizoid.

The abysmal hit rate of Byron Wien's predictions over the past several years (ostensibly since the inception of this silly practice nearly three decades ago) has been the source of much laughter on the pages of Zero Hedge: see here and here. It has also been the source of much profit, due to the Blackstone Vice Chairman's uncanny ability to bat just over 0.000 with laser-guided precision and consistency. Below, as reported by Bloomberg, are the latest set of forecasts which are to be faded with impunity as soon as is possible.

The new year’s worldwide economic downturn has an interlocking effect: every national economy is searching to accommodate itself politically as well as economically to what looks to be an extended period of low growth. After longer or shorter periods of historically unrivaled prosperity, they are feeling for a “bottom” – a level to wait out new growth. That is the proverbial “soft landing”.

One of the topics touched upon by Eric deCarbonnel in the earlier article discussing the potential, if not necessarily probable absent further validation, implications of the Exchange Stabilization Fund, is that of the nature of AIDS. Which got us thinking. While we won't necessarily go into the implications proposed by none other than Chuck Palahniuk in his book Rant (word search Kissinger, especially what Neddy Nelson has to say on the topic), it made us recall that particular National Security Study Memorandum, aka NSSM 200, better known as "The Kissinger Report" authored on December 10, 1974 and immediately classified under Executive Order 11652 until 1989, titled simply, "Implications of Worldwide Population Growth For U.S. Security and Overseas Interests." What did the report say and why is it relevant, especially in our day and age when so many believe that all important substance - black gold - may have peaked? Well, since it has 123 pages full of very, very curious information as pertains to how US foreign policy is truly styled, we will leave it up to our readers to make their own conclusions, but here are some preliminary observations to help them on their way...

About a year ago, we speculated that as part of the ongoing currency warfare between Brazil and the "developed" world, its finance minister Guido Mantega would keep his trade surplus trump card until the moment of biggest impact. That moment has come, after the financial head (with the Playboy-posing daughter) just told Europe to take a hike. "I believe that European countries do not need funds from Brazil to buy bonds. Brazil is not considering it," Mantega told reporters in Brasilia. "They have to find solutions to the European problems within Europe." And with Brazil out, it is certain that China will not step up over fears of appearing weak and needing to provide vendor financing to its biggest export partner. Unfortunately for Europe this means that at least one component of the revised SPIV: that which foresees public investment from third parties into the EFSF (a new twist proposed only last week), can now be safely forgotten, bringing us back to page one and the entire 5x levered CDO structure which as has been explained numerous times, is Dead on Arrival. There is, however, one loophole. "Mantega said Brazil would be willing to provide financial help via the International Monetary Fund." Which is rather laughable considering that by IMF, one typically refers to, at least in polite society, Uncle Sam. Then again, with a French woman (and one who until recently was solely reponsible for the grave French financial condition) in charge, it is easy to lose sight and to be, there is that phrase again, baffled by irrelevant bullshit even as following the bailout money always lead to the same old source.

From my recent conversations with emerging market portfolio managers, it is becoming quite clear that the enthusiasm investors had placed in Brazil as a domestic growth story earlier in the year is running thin. Buy why is the bloom coming off the rose? Some of the things portfolio managers are saying range from an experienced small-cap Latam buyer who said, “Inflation, Mantega going Don Quixote fighting wars that nobody creates other than themselves with high inflation. There is just no visibility,” to a large global fund manager who said, “I am in Brazil this week, it’s slowing down here for sure...” Banco Fator head of equity research Lika Takahashi made some very insightful comments this morning on this topic. In her view, there are couple of factors. First off, valuations in Brazil remain high. Especially considering that it’s likely the global slowdown coupled with high inflation domestically will crimp margins going forward, something she believes is not fully priced in yet.

The world may not be re-entering a recession (after all just look at the S&P in the past two weeks - reputable economists will tell you there is no way the market can soar like that if the world was entering a double dip - and everyone would believe them because they have a Ph.D.), and America may be decoupling from everyone all over again just like every other time it was supposed to decouple but didn't, however Brazil is not waiting around to see the result. Less than two months after its first rate cut, the Brazil central bank just cut its main "selic" interest rate by another 50 bps, this time citing a "more restrictive global environment" instead of "substantial economic deterioration." At the end of the day, the result is the same. So will China finally follow suit and join the global loosening game?

And 9:55 am update in which Mantega responds to Valor (and ZH):

• MANTEGA SAYS BRAZIL ISN'T PREPARING ANY MEASURE

So far the only strategic use of "unnamed government officials" has been to leak rumors, whose sole purpose is to test the market's short covering squeeze potential and to discover just how long the half-life of one after another ever more incredulous rumor is. And since the only thing to come out of Europe in the past month in terms of problem resolution (no really: there has not been one policy that has been enacted since the July 21 Greek bailout), this is a useful strategy. Alas, as Europe is about to find out, this works both ways, because as Brazilian financial site Valor Economic reports, none other than perpetual optimist Brazil, the same country that is supposedly according to one set of rumors preparing to bail out all of Europe, with or without the rest of the BRICs, is now preparing for a Greek default within the week. From Valor: "Something must happen. Greece is a few days [from bankruptcy]" said a high official source.

Add this from Reuters to today's rumor trifecta to make the day RDA allowance of crazy pills complete:

• BRICS COUNTRIES IN "VERY PRELIMINARY" TALKS TO COORDINATE PURCHASES OF EURO ZONE SOVEREIGN DEBT - BRAZIL GOV'T SOURCE

And so in one day we have heard rumors of China, Russia and Brazil (in this case"citing a monetary official"... sure beats "unidentified Italian government sources" ahem FT) all bail out Europe, none of which will inevitably happen mind you because these countries aren't governed by idiots, although "idiots" is precisely who trades this market. See the attached chart for the kneejerk reaction to this latest headline.

Even a broken clock could be right at least twice a day....    

Feeling like one of the 62 sellside analysts tonight, all of whom had no idea Brazil would cut its overnight rate by 50 bps? Wondering what this "unexpected, unprecedented" move means for Brazil? Curious what the implications of this shocking announcement are? Here is Barclays which while still shellshocked, is the first to try to put lipstick on the pig that the BRIC economy suddenly has become.

In a shocking move, one which is sure to reverberate around the Developing and certainly Developed World, the Brazilian Central Bank just announced that it was cutting its Selic (overnight lending) rate from 12.5% to 12.0%, citing "substantial economic deterioration" - something that not one of the 62 analysts covering Brazil had anticipated. It seems that following over a year of small arms fire FX intervention sniping, Brazil has finally reevaluated its growth prospects, and instead of dealing with the inflow of capital on a piecemeal basis by buying dollars daily - a move which has not worked at all, has decided to cut off flows at the stem. This is most likely the first of many rate cuts by Brazil which is obviously anticipating a major growth contraction in China, and as a result we expect the the other BRICs will very soon reevaluate their stance vis-a-vis being the remaining target of global capital flows. Ironically, up until now it was mostly the developed (read bankrupt) world that was devaluing its currencies... Well, make way for the new kids on the block because this is about to get interesting.

When you combine these patterns with the light volume that has occurred throughout this latest move upwards as well as the fact it’s moving on rumors (seriously, Eurobonds? You think Germans are going to support this?), we’re very likely going to see a reversal in the near future culminating in new lows for the year.

Today was the perfect opportunity for GS to come with a revised much more bullish forecast for the economy. The nature of the arguments advanced seemed a bit suspect: basically foreign demand and public demand will more than make up the lack of private demand. That is excellent news but it may somehow miss out on the fact most governments in Europe are going to keep cutting drastically public spending, there are certainly new members in Congress trying make the country lean that way as well, and the brilliant Albert Edwards' chart on Chinese leading indicators is not exactly positive. Unfortunately now growth forecasts are becoming as volatile as the markets: it's the tail wagging the dog. The Fed must be proud in succeeding in having the S&P dictating the economy instead of following it. - Nic Lenoir

Personally I do not think the fundamentals have changed one bit. Certainly the private sector has surprised in November to the upside as people trampled their way to Black Friday bargains, but from there to extrapolate +3.7% growth in 2012 is more than an exageration. Probably more a good opportunity to short squeeze those who sold equities realizing Greece was only the tip of the European iceberg, with the help of $8Bn more in cash provided by the Fed.

To all who thought the bank system is insolvent only in the developed world, it appears there is a new development: Brazil is now on the hook too:

• PANAMERICANO LIQUIDATION COULD DESTABILIZE SYSTEM, FERREIRA
• PANAMERICANO ASKED SUPPORT OF BRAZIL DEPOSIT INSURANCE FUND

Net result: stock down almost 30%.