India

If this weekend's gruesome terrorist attack on Paris ended up being hugely bullish for stocks, then two subsequent events, a stadium-evacuation scare in Hannover (where Angela Merkel was supposed to be present) and a raid in north Paris which left several dead in the ongoing manhunt against the alleged ISIS mastermind, appear to have but some question into if not stocks then algos whether a rising wave of terrorist hatred across Europe is truly what central bankers need to unleash more QE. That said, we expect the current weakness to last only until the traditional USDJPY carry ramp pushes stocks traditionally higher.

The Trade-Weighted US Dollar has risen almost 19% over the past 18 months - the fastest pace of increase on record - and is now at its highest level since 2003. As we noted previously, this is not unequivocally good for American corporate profits... and if you believe The Fed's Stan Fischer - the worst effects of this soaring exchange rate are yet to come... Most of the impact of exchange rate moves come after that first year. So we’re only just getting into the business end of the impact of the dollar’s strength on the US economy. And the Fed are about to hike?

Who would have thought terrorism is so good for stocks.

The flip side of falling interest rates is rising bond prices. Bonds are in a ferocious bull market. It's gobbling up capital like the Cookie Monster jamming tollhouses into his maw.

Global policymakers have gone to incredible measures to stabilize market, financial and economic backdrops. Yet reflationary measures will continue to only further destabilize. When policy-induced “risk on” is overpowering global securities markets, fragilities remain well concealed. Fragilities, however, swiftly manifest with the reappearance of “risk off.” Rather quickly securities markets demonstrate their proclivity for illiquidity and so-called “flash crashes.” So after an unsettled week in global markets, the critical issue is whether “risk on” is giving way to “risk off” dynamics.

"The worldwide collection of phone calls, emails, text messages and our total loss of privacy is all about taxes – NOT terrorism. With all this power, and the demand that encryption be outlawed, none of this surveillance has stopped one terrorist act... Let’s knock off the bullshit and stop the Stasi tactic of building files on everyone. Focus on just the targets to protect society sand we just might stop something like this if we tried."

The Ultimatum Game is a unique window into how humans actually make economic decisions and it is a distinctly opaque aperture.  The best we can probably do is to accept that context plays a far larger role in economics than classical models would suggest.  And don’t stare at someone or make angry faces if you want them to work with you. 

It's 2000 meters undersea.

Gold bullion coin and bar demand surged in Q3 as gold’s continuing COMEX driven price weakness in July and sharp falls in stock markets in China and globally in August saw store of wealth buyers internationally again accumulate bullion.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse - amid supply gluts, production surges, market share scrambles, and demand disappointment - it does. OPEC this morning confirmed not only no change in the already weak global demand picture but the current oil inventrory surplus is the largest in at least a decade. This has driven WTI prices down close to a $41 handle this morning (from over $48 a week ago) as simply put, there's too much oil and OPEC's grand strategy for solving this imbalance - pray for a colder winter...

• GOP debate winners and losers (Hill)
• European Stocks Rise as Dollar Weakens; Metals Decline on China (BBG)
• Global shares shrug off mixed China data, copper teeters near six-year low (Reuters)
• Fed's Evans: Looking forward to time when Fed can raise rates (Reuters)
• Alibaba’s Global Ambitions Face Counterfeit Challenge (WSJ)
• China Rebalancing Takes Hold as Output Slows, Retail Jumps (BBG)

Empires, like adolescents, think they’ll live forever. In geopolitics, as in biology, expiration dates are never visible. When death comes, it’s always a shock. "At the beginning of the great unraveling, in 2015, I was still a young man. Like everyone else, I didn’t see this coming. Today, in 2050, fewer and fewer people can recall what it was like to live among those leviathans... Thirty-five years and endless catastrophes later on a poorer, bleaker, less hospitable planet, it’s clear that we just weren’t paying sufficient attention. Had we been listening, we would have heard the termites. There, in the basement of our common home, they were eating the very foundations out from under us. Suddenly, before we knew quite what was happening, all that was solid had melted into air."

He built the world's fastest road-legal car. He produced a classic British gangster flick. And he fell to his death on Sunday amid the global deflationary supply glut.

Prudent companies internationally are allocating capital to gold and silver bullion as a way to diversify their assets and as a form of financial insurance to protect against bank bail-ins, capital controls, currency debasement and other risks posed by another financial crisis.

JS Kim Issues Critical Warning About Newly Introduced Global Banking "Gold Programs". Could Bankers Be Duping Us into Yet Another One of Their Reverse Alchemy Schemes?