India

"Real investors" are simultaneously nervous and hopeful, confident yet resigned. Yes, their basic belief in equities as an investment class is sound and supported by the last five years of good performance. At the same time, they understand the nuances of the bear case extremely well and are prepared for a long slog of lower returns.

The geopolitical and financial risks facing the global economy are well-known. Hot wars and currency meltdowns garner headlines around the world. But few even hear, much less discuss, four ticking global time-bombs

The dollar dropped about half a milligram gold, and 50mg silver.

But who wants to read about the universal currency falling, failing? Few people are so barbarous as to think of the dollar’s value as being priced in terms a monetary metal.

"It's not the economy... it's the dollar" - That would appear to be the message from the companies of the S&P 500 who have reported in Q3. As FactSet reports, 18 of the 23 companies reporting so far have cited "the strong dollar" as having a negative impact on earnings. Not record domestic inventories (liquidation beginning), the plunge in world trade, not the economic collapse in take your pick of Brazil (depression), China (credit endgame), India (exports/imports crash), and so on...

If you needed further evidence that global growth and trade are in a veritable tailspin, look no further than the latest trade data from India, which shows that both exports and imports fell by 25% in September. That's ok though, we're sure it's nothing another rate cut can't fix...

As has already been discussed at length, once the economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union on Iran begin to be lifted next year, there is going to be a surge in the already oversupplied global crude oil markets. Although the surge in crude oil markets could further worsen the global supply/demand gap, Iran could present a new source of competition on other crucial fronts too, especially in the gas markets.

The "engine of our economy", the "cradle of innovation", the "land of tomorrow" -- whatever breathless hyperbole the fawning media is using this week -- is a sham. Silicon Valley has become a factory of hype, funneling gobs of early-stage capital into whatever half-credible concepts it can think of, and then pimping the artificially-inflated initial results of those tarted-up ventures to whichever "greater fool" is willing to acquire it or buy its IPO. Let that idiot figure out if it will ever turn a profit...

Bernanke and now Yellen have created an environment just like the Roaring Twenties. What came next wasn't pretty

• Democratic rivals back Clinton on emails, but little else in scrappy debate (Reuters)
• Hillary Clinton Shows Relentless Efficiency in First Democratic Debate (WSJ)
• U.S. Examines Goldman Sachs Role in 1MDB Transactions (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Says Trading Pain Isn't Over After Third-Quarter Slump (BBG)
• Islamic State battles insurgents near Aleppo as army prepares assault (Reuters)
• Oil Slide Means `Almost Everything' for Sale as Deals Accelerate (BBG)

Austerity: Also known as “sado-fiscalism”. A forlorn attempt to stave off government bankruptcy.

...

Keynesians: Economists “who hear voices in the air (and) are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back” (John Maynard Keynes).

250,000 Germans marched in Berlin today in protest against the planned "free trade" deal between Europe and the United States which they say is anti-democratic and will lower food safety, labor and environmental standards.  "This is the biggest protest that this country has seen for many, many years," Christoph Bautz, director of citizens' movement Campact told protesters in a speech.

"I would say, don't worry" said Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, after the International Monetary Fund warned of risks in China's economic challenges.

"The world economy is looking grim" - said Raghuram Rajan, Indian central bank governor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

In what seems like a nervous populist move amid Bernie Sanders' gains, Hillary Clinton has flip-flopped rather stunningly to oppose President Obama's Trans-Pacific Partnership. Despite supporting the bill at least 45 times, as CNN's Jake Tapper points out, Clinton told PBS' Judy Woodruff Wednesday in Iowa that, "As of today, I am not in favor of what I have learned about it." It's also a departure from the Clinton legacy, as CNN notes, it was President Bill Clinton who, two decades ago, signed the first mega-regional pact: the North American Free Trade Agreement.

"The Saudi population, especially the younger people, are growing restless because they see what is happening in the world through social media of which they are among the highest users - that’s the only means they have to communicate. So the situation inside the country is also very fragile and the foreign policy conducted by the current regime is very perilous. It is only a matter of time because the Gulf States are ruled by oligarchies who maintain control through bribery and the sword. So this is a challenging time for the Gulf States despite all the public commentary suggesting they are immune to the uprisings."