Private Equity

• India Joins Brazil to China in Efforts to Tighten Liquidity (BBG)
• Seven dead as police and protesters clash in Egypt (Reuters)
• U.S. senators fail to cut deal, head for showdown on filibuster (Reuters)
• Gasoline Tankers Beating Crude for First Time on Record (BBG)
• Smithfield's China bidders plan Hong Kong IPO after deal (Reuters)
• Bitcoin ETF plan struggles to find support (FT)
• Big Home Builders Gobble Up Rivals Starved for Cash (WSJ)
• Putin wants Snowden to go, but asylum not ruled out (Reuters)
• Zimmerman's lawyer calls prosecutors 'disgrace' to profession (Reuters)
• McDonald’s to bring Big Mac to Vietnam (FT)
• Korean Pilots Avoided Manual Flying, Former Trainers Say (BBG)

With the untapering due any minute, and cost of debt set to plunge to even lower record levels, one thing is certain: the private equity industry is about to be bathed with even more costless credit and, with a portfolio of companies already accounting for 8% of US GDP, is about to accelerate its "going private" take over of America's corporations. Of course, in the pursuit of the almighty cashflow driven IRR, all is fair in love and LBO wars, however, one group of people who may not like the outcome are America's workers especially following tonight's glimpse of the "cost-cutting" process that is about to be unleashed by the Fed-funded corner office on workers everywhere. A few hours ago First Data Corp., a KKR portfolio company, announced that it will suspend 401(k) contributions to employees and replace cash bonuses with stock "as part of its new chief executive's strategy to return the credit-card processor to profitability." The move was announced to all 24,000 employees of the Atlanta company in an internal memo Monday.

• Summers Said to Show Interest in Fed Chairmanship After Bernanke (BBG)
• Obama Tells Chinese He’s Disappointed Over Snowden Case (BBG)
• Texas Threat to Abortion Clinics Dodged at Flea Markets (BBG)
• A Peek at Trucking Data, and Then the Stock Surged (WSJ)
• China cuts growth target… or does it? (FT) - yes, it does, net of goal seeked Random () of course
• China Official Suggests Tolerance for Lower Growth (WSJ)
• Disney Says Wristband Boosts Sales in Disney World Test (BBG) - next up: implanted RFID chips
• Spain Prepares Cuts in Renewable-Energy Subsidies (WSJ)
• Bernanke Departure With Duke Heralds Cascade of Fed Appointments (BBG)

We are confident the following amusing bill titled grandiosely enough "A 21st Century Glass-Steagall Act" (the Bill text here) by Elizabeth Warren, John McCain et al, to pretend Congress is not a bought and paid for by Wall Street marionette, will have a last minute rider that says "Compliance with any or all of the above provisions is purely voluntary."

Let’s face it, the Las Vegas real estate market has gone full Chinese.  By full Chinese, we mean a centrally planned bubble has been created that is just asking to blow up.  We’ve covered the renewed insanity of the Las Vegas market before, but this article from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal provides even more detail.  In a nutshell, as a result of Assembly Bill 284, which essentially made foreclosures impossible in Nevada, extremely delinquent homes are not coming for sale, and this phony market signal is leading to rampant overbuilding and price speculation. Bubbles and bullshit.  It’s the American way.

• ICE's NYSE to determine the rate used by key competitor CME: NYSE Euronext to Take Over Libor (WSJ)
• Japan slams China over maritime disputes (FT)
• The Twinkie Returns, With Less Baggage (WSJ)
• Pentagon Workers From Pennsylvania to Ghana Hit by Cuts (BBG)
• Why Prostitutes Aren't Enough to Deprive the World of Eliot Spitzer (BBG)
• Groups gather in Turkish protest park after night of clashes (Reuters)
• Apartment Rents Rise, But the Pace Is Slowing (WSJ)
• Asiana Seen Saving Millions With Tactic to Bar U.S. Suits (BBG)
• Bin Laden's life on the run revealed by Pakistani inquiry (Reuters)
• Fracking Firms Face New Crop of Competitors (WSJ)

• Fashionable 'Risk Parity' Funds Hit Hard (WSJ)
• No 1997 Asian Crisis Return as China Trembles (BBG)
• Greece Faces Collapse of Second Key Privatization (FT)
• China Bad-Loan Alarm Sounded by Record Bank Spread Jump (BBG)
• Iranian official signals no scaling back in nuclear activity (Reuters)
• Asmussen Says Any QE Discussions at ECB Not Policy Relevant (BBG)
• Flat Japanese consumer prices aid Kuroda (FT)
• Vietnam Devalues Dong for First Time Since ’11 to Boost Reserves (BBG)
• World Bank Sees ‘Vulnerable’ Food System on Climate Change (BBG)
• Fed big-hitters seek to quash QE fears (FT)
• EU Leaders Set to Slow Support for Ailing Banks (BBG)

“We’re just building a bigger and bigger time bomb.”

It is easy to get the impression that the naysayers are wrong on Europe. After all the predictions of Armageddon, ten-year government bond yields for Spain and Italy fell to the 4% level, France which is retreating into old-fashioned socialism was able to borrow at about 2%, and one of the best performing bond investments has been until recently – wait for it – Greek government bonds! Admittedly, bond yields have risen from those lows, but so have they everywhere. It is clear when one stands back from all the usual euro-rhetoric that as a threat to the global financial system it is a case of panic over. Well, no. Europe has not recapitalized its banking system the way the US has (at great taxpayer expense, of course). Therefore, it is much more vulnerable. Where European governments and regulators have failed to make their banks more secure it is because they tied their strategy to growth arising from an economic recovery that has failed to materialize. The reality is that the Eurozone GDP levels are only being supported at the moment by the consumption of savings; in orther words, the consumption of personal wealth. Wealth that is not infinite; and held by those not likely to tolerate footing the bill for much longer.

From its origins as a management consulting firm, Booz Allen has quietly grown into a government-wide contracting behemoth, fed by ballooning post-Sept. 11 intelligence budgets and Washington’s increasing reliance on outsourcing. With 24,500 employees and 99% of its revenues from the federal government, its growth in the last decade has been stunning (and until very recently with little to no knowledge from the main street that it even exists).

Claiming that enough time had surely passed since they last caused a global economic meltdown, top executives from the U.S. financial sector told reporters Monday that they are just about ready to completely destroy the world again. Representatives from all major banking and investment institutions cited recent increases in consumer spending, rebounding home prices, and a stabilizing unemployment rate as confirmation that the time had once again come to inflict another round of catastrophic financial losses on individuals and businesses worldwide.  “It’s been about five or six years since we last crippled every major market on the planet, so it seems like the time is right for us to get back out there and start ruining the lives of billions of people again,” said Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein. “We gave it some time and let everyone get a little comfortable, and now we’re looking to get back on the old horse, shatter some consumer confidence, and flat-out kill any optimism for a stable global economy for years to come.”

The mere mention that tapering was even possible, combined with the Chairman's fairly sunny disposition (perhaps caused by the realization that the real mess will likely be his successor's problem to clean up) was enough to convince the market that the post-QE world was at hand. This conclusion is wrong. Although many haven't yet realized it, the financial markets are stuck in a "Waiting for Godot" era in which the change in policy that all are straining to see, will never in fact arrive. Most fail to grasp the degree to which the "recovery" will stall without the $85 billion per month that the Fed is currently pumping into the economy.  Of course, when the Fed is forced to make this concession, it should be obvious to a critical mass that the recovery is a sham.

In one month, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage has jumped by over 60 basis points. What does this mean for net purchasing power? Well, as the chart below shows, assuming a $2000/month budget to be spent on amortizing a mortgage (or otherwise spent for rent), it means that suddenly instead of being able to afford a $425K house, the average consumer can buy a $395K house . This means that, all else equal, housing just sustained a 7% drop in the average equlibrium price based on what buyers can afford. But assuming the current selloff in rates continues, things are going to get much worse: we may be seeing 5%, 5.5% even 6% and higher mortgages in the immediate future. It also means that a buyer who could previously afford a $506K house with a $2,000 monthly budget at an interest rate of 2.5% will be able to afford only $316K if and when the average 30 Year fixed hits 6.5%: a 40% drop in affordability based on just a 4% increase in interest rates!

The FOMC lives in a fantasy world. The economy is not improving materially and deflationary pressures are rising as the bulk of the globe is in recession or worse.  The problem is that the current proposed policy is an exercise in wishful thinking.  While the Fed blamed fiscal policy out of Washington; the reality is that monetary policy does not work in reducing real unemployment.  However, what monetary policy does do is promote asset bubbles that are dangerous; particularly when they are concentrated in riskiest of assets from stocks to junk bonds. However, if you want to see the efficiency of the Federal Reserve in action it is important to view their own forecasts for accuracy. The reality is that Fed may have finally found the limits of their effectiveness as earnings growth slows, economic data weakens and real unemployment remains high. Reminiscent of the choices of Goldilocks - it is likely the Fed's estimates for economic growth in 2013 are too hot, employment is too cold and inflation estimates may be just about right. The real unspoken concern should be the continued threat of deflation and the next recession. One thing is for certain; the Fed faces an uphill battle from here.

• Bonds Tumble With Stocks as Gold Drops in Rout on Fed (BBG)
• Bernanke Sees Beginning of End for Fed’s Record Easing (BBG)
• Gold Tumbles to 2 1/2 Year-Low After Fed as Silver Plummets (BBG)
• PBoC dashes hopes of China liquidity boost (FT)
• U.S. Icons Now Made of Chinese Steel (WSJ)
• Emerging Markets Crack as $3.9 Trillion Funds Unwind (BBG)
• Everyone joins the fun: India sets up elaborate system to tap phone calls, e-mail (Reuters)
• China Manufacturing Shrinks Faster in Threat to Europe (BBG)
• More on how Syria's Al-qaeda, and now US, supported "rebels", aka Qatar mercenaries, operate (Reuters)
• Echoes of Mao in China cash crunch (FT) - how dare a central bank not pander to every bank demand?
• French watchdog tells Google to change privacy policy (Reuters)