Private Equity

Aubrey McClendon is no amateur when it comes to shady personal transactions involving his company, nat gas giant Chesapeake: Back in October 2008, just after the financial crisis erupted, he was forced to sell more than 31 million Chesapeake shares for $569 million to cover margin calls generated from buying CHK stock just prior on margin. The company’s stock fell nearly 40 percent the week of McClendon’s share sales. McClendon issued an apology but the company’s credibility with many shareholders suffered significantly. It looks lie the story is repeating itself, only this time the margined security is not company stock, but company loans. As Reuters reports in a must read special report "Since he co-founded Chesapeake in 1989, McClendon has frequently borrowed money on a smaller scale by pledging his share of company wells as collateral. Records filed in Oklahoma in 1992 show a $2.9 million loan taken out by Chesapeake Investments, a company that McClendon runs. And in a statement, Chesapeake said McClendon’s securing of  such loans has been “commonplace” during the past 20 years. But in the last three years, the terms and size of the loans have changed  substantially. During that period, he has borrowed as much as $1.1 billion – an amount that coincidentally matches Forbes magazine’s estimate of McClendon’s net worth." Ah yes, net worth calculations, which always focus on the assets, but endlessly ignore the liabilities (as Donald Trump will be first to admit). But ignore that: what is more notable here is the circuitous way that McClendon basically lifted himself by his, or rather CHK's bootstraps: all the loans are collateralized by his 2.5% working interest in new CHK wells drilled every year. In essence a roundabout way of generating "cash" by hypothecation, and levering into an "upside" corporate case. Should CHK however incur asset impairments, and/or if the current price of gas stays at or $2.00, then not only will CHK be gutted but so will the asset quality securing the private loans to the CEO, which on top of everything have no covenants ("There are no covenants or obligations in my loan documents or mortgages that bind Chesapeake in any way," McClendon wrote in an email to Reuters.) and thus no stakeholder protections. Is it any wonder then that CHK is getting creamed as of right now as investors are once again reminded that CHK may not quite play by the rules?

Ten more years of low returns in the stock market.  If you are one of the millions of baby boomers headed into retirement - start saving more and spending less because the stock market won't bail you out.  Now that I have your attention I will explain why this is the likely future ahead for investors. In this past weekend's newsletter I wrote that “If you put all of your money into cash today and don’t look at the market for another decade – you will be better off..."  I realize that this statement is equivalent to heresy where Wall Street is concerned but there is one simple reason behind my apparent madness - the power of "reversion". This is not a new concept by any means as witnessed by Bob Farrell's rule #1 - "Markets tend to return to the mean over time."  However, the reality of what "reversion" means is grossly misunderstood by Wall Street, and the mainstream media, as witnessed by the many valuation calls that "stocks are now cheap because the market is now trading in line with its long term average."

Eurozone periphery concerns continue to loom as Italian and Spanish spreads against the German 10yr remain elevated, but have come off their widest levels in recent trade amid some unconfirmed market talk of real money accounts buying Spanish paper.  Despite the concerns in Europe, the major European bourses are trading higher with individual stocks news from over the weekend propping up indices with reports of intra-European M&A and a string of good news for mining stocks pushing up markets today. Some stock stories of note include the agreement of an offer between France’s GDF Suez and UK’s International Power for GBP 4.18 per share, and a speculated merger of BHP Billiton’s and Rio Tinto’s diamond units by private equity firm KKR. The financials sector, however, is showing the strain, as the 3m EUR basis swap moves sharply lower to -53.87 from approximately -50 on Friday, with particular underperformance noted in the French banking sector.  The session so far has been very data-light, with Eurozone trade balance coming in slightly lower than expectations but markets remained unreactive to the release.

• Subprime bubble is back: Lenders Again Dealing Credit to Risky Clients (NYT)
• Housing bubble is also back: AIG Is Planning a Return to U.S. Property Investing (WSJ)
• Spain and EU Reject Talk of Bailout (FT)
• Coeure Suggests ECB Could Restart Bond Purchases for Spain (Bloomberg)
• IMF Set to Recognise Shrinking Chinese Surplus (FT)
• Government to Propose New Mortgage Servicing Rules (AP)
• Japan Currency Chief Warns Against Delay Over Finances (Bloomberg)
• The 'Michael Corleone' of Libya (Reuters)
• North Korea Says Fuel Being Injected Into Rocket (Reuters)
• SNB Reaffirms Vow to Cap Swiss Franc (FT)

• China's Central Banker to Fed: Act Responsibly (WSJ)
• Spain's debt to jump to 78 percent of GDP: De Guindos (Reuters)
• Rajoy Needs All the Luck He Can Get (WSJ)
• Spain Faces Risks in Budget Refit (WSJ)
• Top JP Morgan banker resigns to fight abuse fine (Reuters)
• Reinhart-Rogoff See No Quick U.S. Recovery Even as Data Improve (Bloomberg)
• Program to help spur spending in domestic sector (China Daily)
• Barnier hits out at lobbying ‘rearguard’ (FT)
• U.S. CEOs' take-home pay climbs on stock awards (Reuters)

• Mixed signals from China's factories in March (Reuters)
• EU wants G20 to boost IMF funds after Eurogroup move (Reuters)
• Euro Leaders Seek Global Help After Firewall Boosted (Bloomberg)
• Euro-Region Unemployment Surges to Highest in More Than 14 Years (Bloomberg)
• Big banks prepare to pay back LTRO loans (FT) ... don't hold your breath
• Coty Inc. Proposes to Acquire Avon Products, Inc. for $23.25 Per Share in Cash (PRnewswire)
• Spain Record Home Price Drop Seen With Bank Pressure (Bloomberg)
• Firm dropped by Visa says under 1.5 million card numbers stolen (Reuters)
• Japan Tankan Stagnates With Yen Seen as Threat (Bloomberg)
• Fed to buy $44 billion Treasuries in April, sell $43 billion (Reuters)

All you need to read and more.

Austerity hasn’t worked for countries.  So far the austerity path has made situations worse, rather than better.  Without stimulus, economies have seen their problems compound.  So now virtually everyone is against the idea that austerity is helpful. That takes us back to spending.   Maybe it’s just me, but spending is what got us into this mess in the first place.  If spending worked so well and was so easy we wouldn’t have a sovereign debt crisis in the first place.  Virtually every country was spending, yet deficits grew and economies shrank.  Why is there any faith that spending now will work?  Are we so good at targeting specific things that will really, truly, work?  Not a chance.  Spending will ensure debt grows just as fast, make the problem even bigger in the end, but will make people slightly happier in the near term. So if austerity doesn’t work, and spending hasn’t worked, what will? PSI, or Default, or Restructuring.

There was a time when Mr. Pink would send out witty activist letters full of zing and sarcasm, which would brighten many a trader's day. Then Mr. Pink started running a multi-billion fund and Mr. Pink matured into Dan Loeb. Today, Loeb returns with a vengeance having submitted a zinger letter to YHOO CEO Scott Thompson, in his capacity as a 5.8% shareholder of YHOO stock. Needless to say, Loeb is less than pleased with Yahoo's recent snub of his board of director candidates. The result are sentences such as the following: "Only in an illogical Alice-in-Wonderland world would a shareholder be deemed to be conflicted from representing the interests of other shareholders because he is, well, a shareholder too."..."this “long-term vs. short-term” excuse is a canard and particularly inapt in the case of Yahoo!. If there ever was a company in need of a sense of urgency, it is this one."..." Was it “short-term” thinking that led Third Point to push for the resignations of Jerry Yang, Roy Bostock, Arthur Kern and Vyomesh Joshi? If so, is there a Yahoo! shareholder on the planet who thinks this “short-term” thinking was bad for the Company? Was it “short-term” thinking that led Third Point to speak up for shareholders by questioning the fairness of the attempt by the Company to give away control to private equity funds – without receiving a premium – to entrench Roy Bostock and Jerry Yang? Or to suggest, as Third Point has, that the Company’s stake in Alibaba is more valuable than generally understood, and that the Company should hold on to it unless it can get fair value? Was it “short-term” thinking to point out the lack of media and advertising expertise on the Board and nominate extraordinarily qualified nominees to fill that gaping hole?" And so on. Loeb concludes amicably: "We remain willing to engage further with you but will not deviate from our demand for badly-needed shareholder representation." We are confident his next letter, which will be released in 1-2 months, will hardly be so pleasant.

• Greece's Fringe Parties Surge Amid Bailout Ire (WSJ)
• ECB fails to stem reduction in lending (FT)
• More Twists for Spanish Banks (WSJ)
• Banks use ECB cash to buy bonds, lend less to firms (IFR)
• UK still long way off pre-crisis growth – King (Reuters)
• Dublin confident of ECB deal to defer payment (FT)
• Goldman's European derivatives revenue soars (Reuters)
• Japan Faces Tax Battle as DPJ Finishes Plan on Sales Levy (Bloomberg)
• Insurance Mandate Splits US Court (FT)

• BOJ Crosses Rubicon With Desperate Monetary Policy, Hirano Says (Bloomberg)
• Europe’s bailout bazooka is proving to be a toy gun (FT)
• Monti Signals Spanish Euro Risk as EU to Bolster Firewall (FT)
• Merkel set to allow firewall to rise (FT)
• Banks set to cut $1tn from balance sheets (FT)
• Supreme Court weighs historic healthcare law (Reuters)
• Spain PM denied symbolic austerity boost in local vote (Reuters)
• Anti-war movement stirs in Israel (FT)
• Obama to Ask China to Toughen Korea Line (WSJ)
• Pimco’s Gross Says Fed May ‘Hint’ at QE3 at April Meeting (Bloomberg)

European cash equity markets were seen on a slight upward trend in the early hours of the session amid some rumours that the Chinese PBOC were considering a cut to their RRR. However, this failed to materialise and markets have now retreated into negative territory with flows seen moving into fixed income securities. This follows some market talk of selling in Greek PSI bonds due to the absence of CDSs. This sparked some renewed concern regarding the emergence of Greece from their recovery. Elsewhere, we saw the publication of the BoE’s financial stability review recommending that UK banks raise external capital as soon as possible. This saw risk-averse flows into the gilt, with futures now trading up around 40 ticks.

• Beijing on edge amid coup rumours (FT) - as predicted two days ago, do not expect any official media update on this critical matter, until after the outcome, whatever it is
• Goldman scours emails for use of word "muppets" (Reuters)
• Germany to Balance Budget Early (WSJ)
• Osborne Gives and Takes From Rich in U.K. Budget Balancing Act (Bloomberg)
• Big Spending at Fannie, Freddie Should End, Watchdog Says (Bloomberg)
• Volcker Says U.S. Needs Reforms in Finance, Government (Bloomberg)
• Chinese Firms, Regulators in Talks on Yuan-Fund Program (FT)
• Ireland Said to Ready Bank-Debt Proposal for ECB Review (Bloomberg)

• So much for that: Obama to fast track southern portion of Keystone XL Pipeline (1600 Report)
• French Police Say They Have Cornered Suspect in School Shooting (NYT); French shooting suspect had been arrested in Afghanistan (Reuters); Suspect in French shootings says he’ll surrender to end standoff (Globe & Mail), Toulouse suspect escaped from Kandahar jail in mass Taliban jailbreak in 2008 (BBC)
• Bernanke Says Europe Must Aid Banks Even as Strains Ease (Bloomberg)
• Monti faces clash with unions over reform (FT)
• UK budget to balance tax breaks with austerity (Reuters)
• Romney scores big win over Santorum in Illinois (Reuters)
• U.S. Exempts Japan, 10 EU Nations From Iran Oil Sanctions (Bloomberg)
• Bernanke Says Fed Failed to Meet Goals During Great Depression (Bloomberg)
• Revised tax deal reached on Swiss accounts (FT)

• Tapping oil from the SPR may be trickier than ever (Reuters)
• Why Quantitative Easing Is The Only Game in Town: Martin Wolf (FT)
• Lacker Says Fed May Need to Raise Target Interest Rate in 2013 (Bloomberg)
• Japan Debt-Financing Concern Clouds BOJ’s Bond Buying (Bloomberg) No worries - US will just buy Japan's bonds
• IMF Approves €28bn Loan to Greece (FT)
• Banks Want Fed to Iron Out 'Maiden' (WSJ)
• China 'Wealth Exodus' Underestimated (China Daily)
• Geithner Calls For Reforms to Boost Growth (FT)
• China Adds Treasuries For First Time Since July on Europe Woes (Bloomberg)
• Osborne Weighs 50p Tax Rate Cut To 45p (FT)