Debt Ceiling

For those wondering, here is the full final roll call of the vote to extend the debt ceiling and temporarily end the government shutdown:

And so, in the proverbial 11th hour, or technically 10th hour and 10th minute before the midnight of the X-Date, the House gets the necessary 216 votes to pass the Senate bill to raise the debt ceiling, and in a final 285-144 tally, in which 87 Republicans voted yea to 144 GOP noes as all 198 Democrats vote yea, has agreed to restore funding.  Next up: the BLS random number generator starts cranking again and informing everyone in just how sorry a state the economy finds itself, which of course is bullish for stocks because it means that the taper is indefinitely delayed, potentially until June 2014. Also next up, as the emergency Treasury measures are netted out against the new debt limit, it means that once the new Daily Treasury Statement hits, the total US Federal debt will be just at, or over $17 trillion. Rejoice.

As it appears the can will be kicked once again, we thought it worth reflecting briefly on the possibility that this farce eventually ends in court (whether in 3 months or some time after that). While the Obama administration has ruled out the use of the 14th Amendment (and the mint-the-coin idiocy has been dismissed for its lifting-the-veil reality), Tangent Capital partners' Bob Rice explains in this brief Bloomberg TV interview his perspective on the legal, political, and market responses to going down this route. Rice goes on to discuss the 14th Amendment's implications (not great), and ends by pointing out the futility of what many are calling for..."The monetary system is a confidence game and if we get rid of the debt ceiling altogether, there is a realistic question (asked by the rest of the world) as to how much discipline we are going to have."

No surprise here:

• *SENATE VOTES 81-18 TO END GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, LIFT DEBT LIMIT

Here is the full list of "nays"... and off we go to The House...

The last few days have seen a great rotation in T-Bill markets. That rotation, as the chart below shows, has seen short-dated Bills rally as the new "deal" became closer and closer but the mid-term Bills start to crack higher in yield. Based on press reports, the short-term debt ceiling extension expected to be passed by Congress would suspend the debt ceiling until February 7. However, as Citi notes, Feb. 7 would only be a "soft" deadline since Treasury would then be able to engage in "extraordinary measures" to open up "headroom" under the debt ceiling.

UPDATE: There will be two votes by the Senate on the deal by 8pm. One on cloture (requires 60 votes), and one on final passage (simple majority)... then it's on to the house...

*SENATE VOTES 83-16 TO ADVANCE ACCORD TO END U.S. SHUTDOWN (cloture)

*SENATE HAS ENOUGH VOTES TO PASS MEASURE ENDING FISCAL IMPASSE (Deal Done)

We assume there will be the normal grandstanding with every Senator wanting to get their soundbite in for saving the world... but the vote is about to occur (expected around 6pm) before sending it to the House for apparent rubber-stamping... we will see of course...

How Fitch has not downgraded the U.S. already is a mystery to analysts looking at the U.S. fiscal position and the lack of political will to tackle it. It seems likely that significant political pressure is being put on credit ratings agencies regarding their credit rating of the U.S.

Done deal? Let them explain...

REID SAYS HE'S GOING TO WAIT FOR MCCONNELL TO TALK ON BUDGET
REID SAYS MCCONNELL COMING TO FLOOR SOON
SENATE SAID TO HAVE DEAL ENDING SHUTDOWN, RAISING DEBT CEILING

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will soon announce an agreement to reopen the government and avert default on U.S. debt, Politico reports, according to several sources familiar with the talks. Here is what that "stunning reversal for the speaker" deal looks like. In short: the can has been kicked for three months, to early February.

While the debt ceiling fracas has done nothing to stymie the demand for high-beta equity lottery tickets, it has decimated the demand for the most leveraged trade an American tends to make... home purchases. While real data is few and far between, we thought that the cracking of yet another foundational pillar of the US economic "recovery" was worthwhile noting although it is squeezed to the back pages as the mainstream media focuses on rumor after rumor to juice equities ever higher. With the hedgies having turned from marginal buyer to marginal seller, it seems the demand for mortgages for home purchases has collapsed to its lowest level in 2013 - even as rates have dropped notably from the year's highs.

As we count down to doomsday or not (and equity investors pile their last cash on the sidelines into stocks), we thought some reflection on an interesting analysis of the last debt ceiling debacle was worthwhile. In a few brief minutes, William Spaniel shows the payoffs and decision trees that led to the decision to compromise on what was close to the Gang-of-Six middle ground when the stuff hit the fan last time. Crucially, while the process is similar this time, it appears to us that the lack of middle-ground this time shifts the optimal path increasingly to a 14th Amendment possibility. Nevertheless, his process may provoke some thoughts on just how this "game" is played even as Boehner exclaims "this ain't no game."

Total chaos

• No decision yet, House Republican aide tells Bloomberg’s Phil Mattingly, speaking on condition of anonymity
• Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, tells Bloomberg Television, he doesn’t know if House will vote first on any Senate agreement on govt shutdown, debt ceiling.

Obligatory Bazooko circus clip below

The USD is bid; Treasury Bonds are being abandoned; the 10/24/13 Bill remains lost though; but stocks are entering escape velocity. S&P 500 has screamed 15 points higher (no surprise given Nanex noted that S&P 500 futures had the lowest liquidity of the year for this time of day prior to the rumor) and the Russell 2000 has broken back to new all-time highs (why not). Of course JPY-crosses are largely responsible for the knee-jerk move and we wait to see if this becomes a sell the news moment (or for Boehner's denial)... Commodities are not moving much for now.

Per Sen sources, Boehner has agreed to take up the Senate's plan and allow it to pass with Dem votes.

— Robert Costa (@robertcostaNRO) October 16, 2013

Equity investors can't buy enough this morning. The latest rumor - that the House Republicans are willing to consider voting first on an emerging Senate proposal - provided some fillip to an opening selloff. As Politico reports, this move could expedite bipartisan legislation developed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. If the House passes the bill first and sends it to the upper chamber, it would eliminate some burdensome procedural hurdles in the Senate and require just one procedural roll call with a 60-vote threshold needed to advance the bill toward final passage in the Senate. Of course, the big question here is "If" the House passes the bill...