Yuan

• Rate-Rig Spotlight Falls on 'Rain Man' (WSJ)
• Blizzard Cancels U.S. Flights, Threatens Snow in New York (BBG)
• Monti says he did not know of bank probes (FT)
• Japan's Aso: yen has weakened more than intended (Reuters)
• Japan Pledges Foreign-Policy Response to Territorial Incursions (BBG)
• Paratroops mutiny in Bamako in blow to Mali security efforts (Reuters)
• China, Japan engage in new invective over disputed isles (Reuters)
• Asteroid to Traverse Earth’s Satellite Zone, NASA Says (BBG)
• EU leaders haggle over budget tightening (FT)
• China Trade Tops Forecasts in Holiday-Distorted Month (Bloomberg)
• Buffett’s Son Says He’s Prepared Whole Life for Berkshire Role (BBG)

Five full years on from the financial crisis, stock markets have regained lost ground and are within striking distance of new record highs. Yet, it’s only now, after all the gains from the bottom have been made, that the investing crowd is starting to put money back into stocks. Curious. When stocks were cheap, nobody wanted them. Now that they’ve breached record nominal highs again (Dow 14,000++), investors are piling back in. It’s almost a cliche, but to make money investing, you generally have to buy something when nobody else wants it, and sell when everyone wants to buy. As a group, gold stocks are down between 20% and 30% over the past year. Yet in that same timeframe, the price of the gold has risen. As a result, sentiment toward gold stocks is pitiful. Even diehard gold bugs are tired of losing money in gold stocks and have been dumping their shares in disgust. There are 4 main reasons I can think of why gold stocks might be so cheap...

• Bersani's lead over Berlusconi continues to erode, now just 3.6 Pts, or inside error margin, in Tecne Poll
• Spain gears up for U.S. debt investor meetings (Reuters)
• PBOC Set for Record Weekly Liquidity Injection (WSJ)
• RBS Trader Helped UBS’s Hayes With Libor Bribes, Regulators Say (BBG)
• ECB, Ireland reach bank debt deal (Reuters)
• AMR-US Airways Near Merger Agreement (WSJ)
• Monte Paschi says no more derivatives losses (Reuters) ... remember this
• Harvard’s Gopinath Helps France Beat Euro Straitjacket (BBG) - by sliding into recession?
• Obama Relents on Secret Drone Memo (WSJ)
• Brennan to face questions on interrogations, drones and leaks (Reuters)
• Wall Street Success With Germans Boomerangs (BBG)
• Khamenei rebuffs U.S. offer of direct talks (Reuters)
• Boeing Preps Redesign to Get 787 Flying  (WSJ)

Platinum prices have already risen by more than 12% so far in 2013, following the same advance for all of 2012. Platinum supplies have fallen to a 13-year low as mines in South Africa, the world’s biggest producer, close and the platinum industry is in crisis due to industrial unrest, geological constraints and sharply rising costs. Global production will drop 2.7% to 5.68 million ounces, the least since 2000, according to Barclays Plc, which raised its 2013 shortage estimate sixfold last month after Johannesburg-based Anglo American Platinum Ltd. (AMS) said it plans to idle shafts.  Anglo American Plc’s platinum unit, the largest producer, last month proposed the halt of four mine shafts that would cut about 7% of global production. At the same time, demand from carmakers, the biggest consumer of the metal, will increase 0.5 percent in 2013, Barclays says.  Perhaps, most importantly investors are buying platinum at the fastest pace in three years and yet holdings of platinum remain very, very small. Global production of the metal will fall as South African output drops 3.4% to a 12-year low of 4.11 million ounces, Barclays estimates.

The mainstream media is overflowing with stories proclaiming the global economy is on the mend.  Really? Based on what engine of growth? If we cut through the Keynesian jargon of aggregate demand and other Cargo-Cult mumbo-jumbo, what we find is the Status Quo is hoping to boost its precious aggregate demand with the same bag of tricks that imploded so spectacularly in 2008: the wealth effect based on phantom collateral created by Centrally Planned asset bubbles. Though you will not find a Keynesian pundit or economist with the courage required to admit it, the same problem of phantom collateral applies to Federal and state debt: the consumption all that debt funded is soon forgotten, but the debt remains to be paid, essentially forever.

Gold climbed $5.70 or 0.34% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,673.50/oz. Silver inched up to $31.86 in Asia, then it fell back to $31.38, and then rose to a high of $31.91, but eased off in afternoon trade and finished with a loss of 0.35%.

Gold rose to a new record nominal high on the TOCOM at 0.156 million yen per ounce. The resignation of Bank of Japan Governor, Shirakawa on March 19 is pressuring the yen as is increased tensions in the Pacific between China and Japan -  Japan accused China of targeting a Japanese naval vessel and helicopter.

• Obama to meet with Goldman's Blankfein, other CEOs Tuesday (Reuters)
• Chinese Firms Shrug at Rising Debt (WSJ)
• McGraw-Hill, S&P Sued by U.S. Over Mortgage-Bond Ratings (BBG)... but not Moody's or Fitch
• Dime a Dozen: Dollar Stores Pinched by Rapid Expansion (WSJ)
• Dell Board Said to Vote Monday Night on $24 Billion LBO (BBG)
• BOJ Governor Shirakawa to step down on March 19 (Reuters)
• Alberta may offer more to smooth way for Keystone (Reuters)
• Facebook Is Said to Create Mobile Location-Tracking App (BBG)
• Barclays takes another $1.6 billion hit for mis-selling (Reuters)
• Apple App Advantage Eroded as Google Narrows IPhone Lead (BBG)
• Texas School-Finance System Unconstitutional, Judge Rules (BBG)
• World Risks ‘Perfect Storm’ on Capital Flows, Carstens Says (BBG)

Here are eight considerations that will shape the captial markets in the week ahead.  

Analysts who’ve only started paying attention to the country in the last decade often seem convinced that China has no real business cycle, or a very mild one, that because its economy is centrally planned, it’s free from the fluctuations in investment that cause booms and recessions in countries that lack the scientific guidance of a Leninist single-party state. This convenient belief, however, is mostly an artifact of the period over which they’ve been observing its economy. The boom of the early 1990’s wasn’t followed by the usual bust. Instead, after a fairly mild slowdown, another boom period began towards the end of the decade, without the usual deep cyclical trough between expansions. However, this anomaly suggests that it is unlikely to be repeated. We’re probably living, now, with a China that’s back to the sort of violent swings in economic activity, and repeated struggles with inflation, that have been characteristic of most of its recent history. To understand why, it’s necessary to understand DeWeaver's explanation of the nature of the cycle itself.

• 'London Whale' Sounded an Alarm on Risky Bets (WSJ)
• Deadly Blast Strikes U.S. Embassy in Turkey (WSJ)
• Abe Shortens List for BOJ Chief as Japan Faces Monetary Overhaul (BBG)
• Endowment Returns Fail to Keep Pace with College Spending (BBG) - More student loans
• Mexico rescue workers search for survivors after Pemex blast kills 25 (Reuters)
• Lingering Bad Debts Stifle Europe Recovery (WSJ)
• Peregrine Founder Hit With 50 Years (WSJ) - there is hope Corzine will get pardoned yet
• Deutsche Bank to Limit Immediate Bonuses to 300,000 Euros
• France's Hollande to visit Mali Saturday (Reuters)
• France, Africa face tough Sahara phase of Mali war (Reuters)
• Barclays CEO refuses bonus (Barclays)
• Edward Koch, Brash New York Mayor During 1980s Boom, Dies at 88 (BBG)
• Samsung Doubles Tablet PC Market Share Amid Apple’s Lead (BBG)

• Risky Student Debt Is Starting to Sour (WSJ)
• Political scandal in Spain as PP secret accounts revealed (El Pais)
• New York Times claims Chinese hackers hijacked its systems (NYT)
• Spain's Rajoy, ruling party deny secret payment scheme (Reuters)
• Iran crude oil exports rise to highest since EU sanctions (Reuters)
• BlackBerry 10’s Debut Fizzles as U.S. Buyers Left Waiting (BBG)
• Costs drag Deutsche Bank to €2.2bn loss  (FT)
• And the gaming of RWA continues - Deutsche Bank Beats Capital Goal as Jain Shrugs Off Loss (BBG)
• More fun out of London - Barclays, RBS May Pay Billions Over Improper Derivatives Sales (BBG)
• Hagel to face grilling by Senate panel on Mideast, budget (Reuters)

• Boeing misses Q4 top line ($22.3 bn, Exp. $22.33 bn) beats EPS ($1.28, Exp. $1.18), guides lower: 2013 revenue $82-85 bn, Exp. 87.9 bn
• Hilsenrath discovers DV01: Fed Risks Losses From Bonds  (WSJ)
• Airlines had 787 battery issues before groundings (Reuters)
• Monte Paschi ignored warnings over risk, documents show (Reuters) as did Mario Draghi
• China averts local government defaults (FT)
• Economy Probably Slowed as U.S. Spending Gain Drained Stockpiles (Bloomberg)
• Bono Is No Match for Retail Slump Hitting Dublin’s Fifth Avenue (BBG)
• Catalonia requests €9bn from rescue fund (FT)
• US plans more skilled migrant visas (FT)
• Japan PM shrugs off global criticism over latest stimulus steps (Reuters)
• CIA nominee had detailed knowledge of "enhanced interrogation techniques" (Reuters)
• Cleanliness Meets Godliness as Russia Reeled Into Cyprus (BBG)
• Deutsche Bank Seen Missing Goldman-Led Gains on Cost Rise (BBG)

• U.S. Wants Criminal Charges for RBS (WSJ)
• Bernanke Seen Buying $1.14 Trillion in Assets in 2014 (BBG)
• Irish banks at mercy of international paymasters (Reuters)
• Do badly, and we will let you do even worse: Rehn Signals EU May Ease Spain Budget Goal in Austerity Retreat (BBG)
• Too Soon to Celebrate for Europe's Banks (WSJ)
• Army says political strife taking Egypt to brink (Reuters)
• Media Firms Probed on Data Release (WSJ) - No Criminal Charges Seen
• Japan’s Government Proposes First Spending Cut in 7 Years (BBG)
• Nazi Goebbels’ Step-Grandchildren Are Hidden Billionaires (BBG)
• Goldman seeks to reduce China exposure (FT)
• More than 70% of Chinese airports generate losses (People's Daily)

• CAT beats ex-Chinese fraud: $1.91, Exp. $1.70; Warns 2013 could be a "tough year"; sees 2013 EPS in $7.00-$9.00 range, Exp. $8.54, sees Q1 sales well below Q1, 2012
• Yi Warns on Currency Wars as Yuan Close to ‘Equilibrium’ (BBG)
• Monte Paschi seeks new investor as scandal deepens (Reuters)
• Assault Weapons Ban Lacks Democratic Votes to Pass Senate (BBG)
• Toyota Again World's Largest Auto Maker (WSJ)
• Curious why all those Geneva Libor manipulators moved to Singapore? Bank probes find manipulation in Singapore's offshore FX market  (Reuters)
• Japan eased safety standards ahead of Boeing 787 rollout (Reuters) - so like Fukushima?
• Goldman is about to be un charge: Osborne cools on changing inflation target (Telegraph)
• Abe Predicts Bump in Revenue as Japan Emerges From Recession (BBG) - actually, "hopes" is the correct verb here
• Toxic Smog in Beijing Fueling Auto Sales for GM, VW (BBG)
• Fed waits for job market to perk up (Reuters) ... any minute now that S&P to BLS trickle down will hit, promise
• BofA shifts derivatives to UK (FT)

• Fed Pushes Into ‘Uncharted Territory’ With Record Assets (BBG)
• Next up in the currency wars: Korea - Samsung Drops on $2.8 Billion Won Profit-Cut Prediction (BBG)
• China Warns ‘Hot Money’ Inflows Possible on Easing From Abroad (Bloomberg)
• BOJ Shirakawa affirms easy policy pledge but warns of costs (Reuters)
• Merkel Takes a Swipe at Japan Over Yen (WSJ)
• Wages in way of Abe’s war on deflation (FT)
• Italian PM under fire over bank crisis (FT)
• Senior officials urge calm over islands dispute (China Daily)
• Spain tries to peel back business rules (FT)
• Rifts Over Cyprus Bailout Feed Broader Fears (WSJ)
• Soros Says the Euro Is Here to Stay as Currency War Looms (BBG)