Credit-Default Swaps

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With hours to go until Argentina's grace period runs out and default occurs, investors are less than frantically selling Argentine bonds and pesos. They are lower but do not appear in full panic mode as we presume investors cling to hope that Argentina folds and pays off the holdouts (though there has been no sign of that so far). ARG 2033 bonds are down 3 points to 81 and the black-market peso is modestly weaker at 13.0 (near its record lows). Argentine CDS tightened modestly (as BofA warns the facts surrounding Argentina’s bond payments continue to be unique and deciding if CDS are triggered could take longer than expected) but 1Y CDS are holding at 4600bps (equivalent) - a 52% probability of default. Paul singer continues to defend himself (and the holdouts) from claims they are "dangerous fundamentalists" hell-bent on making it impossible for foreign sovereigns to restructure their debts.

• The Man Who Broke the Middle East (Politico)
• Kerry presses Maliki as Iraq loses control of Syrian, Jordanian borders (Reuters)
• Hank Paulson takes on global warming next: The Coming Climate Crash - Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession (NYT)
• In Yellen We Trust Is Bond Mantra as Inflation Threats Dismissed (BBG)
• After port fraud, China's vast warehouse sector under scrutiny (Reuters)
• Draghi Says Unlimited Cash Through 2016 Is Rate Signal (BBG)
• Tapes Said to Reveal Polish Minister Disparaging U.S. Ties (NYT)
• CDC reassigns director of lab behind anthrax blunder (Reuters)
• BNP set to receive ban to transact in USD as part of $9 billion settlement (WSJ)
• GE Clears Last French Hurdle to Clinch Alstom Deal (BBG)
• Al Jazeera journalists jailed in Egypt, supporters stunned (Reuters)
• ISDA Asked to Rule If Argentina Credit-Default Swaps Triggered (BBG)

• America’s Role as Consumer of Last Resort Goes Missing (BBG)
• Holiday sales sag despite blitz of deals (WSJ)
• Abe Support Falls Below 50% for First Time Amid Secrecy Drive (BBG)
• U.S. airlines give China flight plans for defense zone (Reuters), while Japan: no change to airlines' notification policy when flying in East China Sea zone (Reuters)
• Thai protesters seek to topple PM after clashes (Reuters)
• Hilton Seeks as Much as $2.4 Billion in Biggest Hotel IPO (BBG)
• Biden on delicate mission to defuse tensions in East Asia (Reuters)
• Fed eyes financial system weak link (WSJ)
• Pentagon in line of fire in US budget war (FT)
• China’s monetary squeeze collides with housing bubble (FT)

While today's big event is the October Non-farm payrolls print, which consensus has at 120K and unemployment rising from 7.2% to 7.3%, there was a spate of events overnight worth noting, starting with Chinese exports and imports both rising more than expected (5.6% and 7.6% vs expectations of 1.9% and 7.4% respectively), leading to an October trade surplus of $31.1 billion double the $15.2 billion reported in August. This led to a brief jump in Asian regional market which however was promptly faded. Germany also reported a greater trade surplus than expected at €20.4bn vs €15.4 bn expected, which begs the question just where are all these excess exports going to? Perhaps France, whose trade deficit rose from €5.1 billion to €5.8 billion, more than the €4.8 billion expected. Of note also was the French downgrade from AA+ to AA by S&P, citing weak economic prospects, with fiscal constraints throughout 2014. The agency added that the country has limited room to maneuver and sees an inability to significantly cut government spending. The downgrade, however, was largely a buy the EURUSD dip event as rating agencies' opinions fade into irrelevance.

“Recovery” has become the shibboleth constantly invoked by people running things after the crisis of 2008. Unfortunately, no such recovery was underway. It was papered over by the twin Federal Reserve policies of quantitative easing and financial repression – a combination of the nation’s central bank loaning vast new amounts of money into existence at ultra-low interest rates (hardly any interest to pay back) and creating steady monetary inflation to reduce the burden of existing debt by shrinking the dollar value of the debt. The program was a racket in the sense that it was fundamentally dishonest. The presumed purpose of these shenanigans from the point of view of the Federal Reserve and the White House was to keep the financial system stable and afloat, and therefore to keep “normal” American daily life going. Unfortunately, it was based on the unreal assumption that the financial norms of, say, 2006 could be ginned back up again, and this premise was just inconsistent with the reality of a post-Peak-Cheap-Oil world. Unfortunately, there was no organized counter-view to this wishful thinking anywhere within the boundaries of the political establishment.

Bigger Tax Payer Bank Bailouts Cometh? If You Think Taxes Are Gonna Be Higher You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet! I welcome one and all to show me how it will not be so.

• Israel Mobilizes Troops as Hostilities Escalate (WSJ)
• FHA Sets Stage for Taxpayer Subsidy With 2012 Deficit (Bloomberg)
• On eve of fiscal cliff talks, positions harden (Reuters)
• Japan PM Noda contradicts challenger Abe on BOJ (Reuters)
• Regulators cut JPMorgan's ability to trade power (Reuters)
• EU Should Reach Agreement on Greek Aid Next Week, Grilli Says (BBG)
• Moscovici rejects talk of French crisis (FT)
• Egypt Urges Push for Gaza Peace as Rockets Hit Israel (BBG)
• Leading Japan politicians draw election battle lines (Reuters)
• Fed Push to Tie Zero-Rate to Economic Goals Faces Doubts (BBG)
• China’s commerce minister voted out in rare congress snub (Reuters)
• China’s new leaders could have reform thrust upon them (Reuters)
• Both Sides of Gaza Border Brace for Further Conflict (WSJ)
• Fed Sees Hurdles in Housing Rebound (Hilsenrath)
• The Complete 2012 Business Schools Ranking (Bloomberg)

Gold’s seasonality is seen in the above charts which show how March, June and October are gold’s weakest months with actual losses being incurred on average in these months. Buying gold during the so-called summer doldrums has been a winning trade for most of the last 34 years. This is especially the case in the last eight years as gold averaged a gain of nearly 14% in just six months after the summer low. We tend to advise a buy and hold strategy for the majority of clients. For those who have a bit more of a risk appetite, an interesting strategy would be to buy at the start of September, sell at end of September and then buy back in on  October 31st. 

It’s Not Just The “London Whale”

There's a big, fat "I told you so" coming down the pike. 

Well, my hat is off to the global central planners for averting the next stage of the unfolding financial crisis for as long as they have. I guess there’s some solace in having had a nice break between the events of 2008/09 and today, which afforded us all the opportunity to attend to our various preparations and enjoy our lives.

Alas, all good things come to an end, and a crisis rooted in ‘too much debt’ with a nice undercurrent of ‘persistently high and rising energy costs’ was never going to be solved by providing cheap liquidity to the largest and most reckless financial institutions. And it has not.

Each day then that passes, as the cash river runs dry, will change the dynamics of the investment world. The biggest change that I see forthcoming on the landscape, beyond those which I have noted, I believe will take place in Germany. China is heading towards some sort of landing and most of Europe is now officially in a recession. The bite of the austerity measures will deepen the process and between the two I think we will begin to see a decline in the finances of Germany which will bring all manner of howls and screams. Germany cannot keep heading in one direction while the rest of its partners founder all around them. The demands of Berlin are self-defeating eventually as demand falls off and I think we are just at the cusp of deterioration in Germany. The problem, all along, has been that Eurobonds or other measures representing a transfer union will cause the averaging of all of the economies in Europe so that the periphery countries benefit with a higher standard of living while the wealthier nations have standards of living that decline as the result of accumulated debts for the troubled nations. This will bring out nationalism again in force as the grand dream succumbs to the grim reality of the costs for nations that have lived beyond their means. The Pied Piper always gets paid and Hamelin still rests upon German soil.
 

All you need to read.

• There is no Spanish siesta for the eurozone (FT)
• Greece over halfway to recovery, says PM (FT) - inspired comedy...
• Sarkozy Trims Gap With Rival, Polls Show (WSJ) - Diebold speaks again
• IMF’s Zhu Sees ‘Soft-Landing’ Even as Property Slides: Economy (Bloomberg)
• Obama Uses Lincoln to Needle Republicans Battling in Illinois (Bloomberg)
• Three shot dead outside Jewish school in France (Reuters)
• Osborne Seeks to End 50% Tax Spat With Pledge to Aid U.K. Poor (Bloomberg)
• Monti to Meet Labor Unions Amid Warning of Continued Euro Crisis (Bloomberg)