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testosteronepit's picture

Liquid Economic Indicators: The Wine Debacle





More vertigo-inducing than all of the Eurozone bailout mechanisms combined.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: A Primer For Those Considering Expatriation





A growing number of Americans are frustrated with the way in which their economy has been managed and are becoming increasingly concerned about future measures the government may take to keep its coffers full. A question that is arising with increasing frequency is: does expatriation offer a viable protection to those concerned about a more financially-intrusive US system? The short answer is 'yes' but while it does offer a solution to ending one's obligations to pay US taxes - it's important to understand that it's not suitable for everyone. Mark Nestmann gives a great nuts and bolts breakdown of what's involved and what the benefits and risks are

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Thomson Reuters GFMS Global Head: "Buy This Gold Dip" As $2,000/Oz Possible





The global economy remains on shaky ground.  China’s manufacturing activity contracted for its 5th straight month, the US recovery is still very early to call, and the euro zone debt crisis may not be finished. Eurozone PMI data is due later today which will show how the economy is doing after Greece averted default earlier this month. Thomson Reuters GFMS have said that gold at $2,000/oz is possible - possibly in late 2012 or early 2013. Thomson Reuters GFMS Global Head of metals analytics, Philip Klapwijk, featured on Insider this morning and advised investors to "buy this gold dip”.  Gold should be bought on this correction especially if we go lower still as we may need a shake-out of "less-committed investors." Klapwijk suggested that a brief dip below $1,600 is on the cards but the global macro environment still favours investment, notably zero-to-negative real interest rates and he would not rule out further easing by either the ECB or the Fed before year end.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 22





  • Beijing on edge amid coup rumours (FT) - as predicted two days ago, do not expect any official media update on this critical matter, until after the outcome, whatever it is
  • Goldman scours emails for use of word "muppets" (Reuters)
  • Germany to Balance Budget Early (WSJ)
  • Osborne Gives and Takes From Rich in U.K. Budget Balancing Act (Bloomberg)
  • Big Spending at Fannie, Freddie Should End, Watchdog Says (Bloomberg)
  • Volcker Says U.S. Needs Reforms in Finance, Government (Bloomberg)
  • Chinese Firms, Regulators in Talks on Yuan-Fund Program (FT)
  • Ireland Said to Ready Bank-Debt Proposal for ECB Review (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

"This Time It's Different?" - David Rosenberg Explains The Melt Up And The Latent Risks





The market is ripping. That much is obvious. What some may have forgotten however, is that it ripped in the beginning of 2011... and in the beginning of 2010: in other words, what we are getting is not just deja vu (all on the back of massive central bank intervention time after time), but double deja vu. The end results, however, by year end in both those cases was less than spectacular. In fact, in an attempt to convince readers that this time it is different, Reuters came out yesterday with an article titled, you guessed it, "This Time It's Different" which contains the following verbiage: "bursts of optimism have sown false hope before... Today there is a cautious hope that perhaps this time it's different." (this article was penned by the inhouse spin master, Stella Dawson, who had a rather prominent appearance here.) So the trillions in excess electronic liquidity provided by everyone but the Fed (constrained in an election year) is different than the liquidity provided by the Fed? Got it. Of course, there are those who will bite, and buy the propaganda, and stocks. For everyone else, here is a rundown from David Rosenberg explaining why stocks continue to move near-vertically higher, and what the latent risks continue to be.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 19





  • There is no Spanish siesta for the eurozone (FT)
  • Greece over halfway to recovery, says PM (FT) - inspired comedy...
  • Sarkozy Trims Gap With Rival, Polls Show (WSJ) - Diebold speaks again
  • IMF’s Zhu Sees ‘Soft-Landing’ Even as Property Slides: Economy (Bloomberg)
  • Obama Uses Lincoln to Needle Republicans Battling in Illinois (Bloomberg)
  • Three shot dead outside Jewish school in France (Reuters)
  • Osborne Seeks to End 50% Tax Spat With Pledge to Aid U.K. Poor (Bloomberg)
  • Monti to Meet Labor Unions Amid Warning of Continued Euro Crisis (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: March 12





  • Greek Bailout Payment Set to Be Approved by Euro Ministers After Debt Deal (Bloomberg)
  • China Trade Deficit Spurs Concern (WSJ)
  • Sarkozy Makes Populist Push For Re-Election (FT)
  • ECB Calls for Tougher Rules on Budgets (FT)
  • As Fed Officials Prepare to Meet, They Await Clearer Economic Signals (NYT)
  • PBOC Zhou: In Theory 'Lots Of Room' For Further RRR Cuts (WSJ)
  • Latest Stress Tests Are Expected to Show Progress at Most Banks (NYT)
  • Monti Eyes Labor Plan Amid Jobless Youth, Trapped Firemen (Bloomberg)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

India Revokes Cotton Export Ban After China Complains: Limit Down Open For "Widowmaker" Trade?





If there was any confusion as to who calls the shots in the world, the following anecdote should provide some needed clarity. Hint: it is not the US. After last week India announced it would proceed with a Cotton export ban, two days ago China logged "a formal protest against India's ban on cotton exports amid signs that India is rethinking the ban that was implemented a few days ago." As a result hours ago India announced that less than a week after enacting said ban, it is now overturning it. Of course, there is the diplomatic snafu of just why it did, and for India it has to do with "protecting" the interests of its farmers, who "complained that, due to higher production this year, they were already suffering from lower prices than they had expected and needed to export to recover their domestic losses." Of course, the farmers' position was well-known before the ban overturn. What wasn't known is just how vocal China would be, as suddenly it would scramble to find alternative sources as it fills its strategic cotton reserve. Turns out it was quite vocal. And India, unwilling to risk a trade war with the world's biggest economic power, promptly relented. As a result, any and all commodity traders who bought up the widowmaker trade may find themselves staring into a limit down market post open.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Chris Martenson Interviews Robert Mish: Front-Line Evidence That We are Nowhere Near a Gold Bubble





Robert Mish has been a precious metals dealer for nearly 50 years and knows what a gold bubble mania looks like. We are nowhere near that stage, in his opinion. Instead, he sees a US populace largely unappreciative of holding precious metal as a store of wealth, and engaged in a slow process of dis-hording their gold and silver to eager foreign buyers who are more than happy to take the bullion back to their shores. In terms of where we are on the gold mania spectrum, he sees us at a "2" out of 10. But he foresees a very rude awakening ahead as the populace eventually wakes up to the increasing damage our over-debted global economy is doing to the purchasing power of world currencies. Because when the general investor finally realizes the protection the precious metals offer against currency debasement, much of the retail supply will already be out of the system in very tight hands, and largely overseas. Moreover, when supply gets tight, there will be more challenges to obtaining physical bullion during a buying mania than there were during the last one in 1980. There are many fewer local sources to exchange bullion these days as much of that business is now transacted by online vendors dependent mail delivery to ship product, which are more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. And be sure you're aware of how the form you hold your bullion in will affect the price you get during a buying frenzy, when refining capacity is overwhelmed. You may find you gold or silver sells at a hefty discount because it's not in a preferred format for trade.

 
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