Hong Kong

“Greeks cannot withdraw cash left in safe deposit boxes at Greek banks as long as capital restrictions remain in place”, Nadia Valavani, a Deputy Finance Minister in Greece told local television station according to a Reuters report.

• Greek lawmakers split over bailout as vote looms (Reuters)
• Greek Bailout Rests on Asset Sale Plan That Already Failed (BBG)
• Greece Needs $25 Billion to Get Through August, Scicluna Says (BBG)
• Tsipras Enters Parliament Den to Sell Aid Deal to Greeks (BBG)
• Greece makes samurai bond repayment (FT)
• Iran, World Powers Have Reached Nuclear Agreement (BBG)
• Janet Yellen’s Fed Flounders in Political Arena (WSJ)

• Greece Capitulates to Creditors’ Demands to Cling to Euro (BBG)
• Euro zone strikes deal with Greece after all-night struggle (Reuters)
• Tsipras Moves From Predator to Prey at Euro 'Torture' Summit (BBG)
• Euro’s Greek Boost Evaporates as Analysts Predict Losses to Come (BBG)
• Greek Fury Meets Resignation at Demands for Concessions (BBG)
• Poland Blames ‘Carefree’ Greek Populists for Tough EU Aid Deal (BBG)
• Europeans Press for Iran Nuclear Deal on Monday (WSJ)
• Iran nuclear talks: Deal 'near completion' (BBC)
• In speech, Clinton to put wages at heart of economic policy (Reuters)
• China’s Incendiary Market Is Fanned by Borrowers and Manipulation (NYT)

The Chinese economy is in an obvious deepening swoon and the median company on the Shanghai exchange had a PE ratio of 60X before the recent break. But no matter. Not only does everything financial race the skyscrapers to the sky in the land of red capitalism, but valuation upside is apparently whatever the comrades in Beijing want it to be. Says Goldman’s chief stock tout for China,“It’s not in a bubble yet.”. Why? Because “China’s government has a lot of tools to support the market.”

Does the next major conflict start with a computer glitch?

The Fed’s Stanley Fischer has said that the U.S. was preparing such legislation – after Tucker had indicated that such legislation was in place. The EU is also at an advanced stage in forcing countries to ratify bail-in legislation. The legislation is being devised to protect the larger banks against the interest of both depositors, taxpayers and the wider economy.

• Only update software on down days: NYSE, SEC Suspect Software Update Triggered Trading Halt (BBG)
• Trade halts add to China’s Potemkin market problem (Reuters)
• Why Beijing’s Efforts Have Failed to Tame China’s Stock Market (WSJ)
• Irrational Exuberance Triggers Chaos as China Watchdog Sidelined (BBG)
• China bounce ends five-day losing streak for stocks (Reuters)
• Fear Grows in Greece as Decisive Hour Nears (WSJ)
• Once Swarming with Greek Visitors, a Bulgarian Town Reels as Business Languishes (WSJ)
• Greece Shuts Markets Through July 13 as Officials Debate Bailout (BBG)
• Germany calls for European defence sector consolidation (Reuters)

No bubble can remain aloft without a heavy dose of monetary inflation. The fact that China’s authorities, including its central bank, have been unable to stem the decline stands as a stark warning to the many Western investors who seemingly believe that central banks are nigh omnipotent entities run by magicians. This is not the case. Once an asset bubble begins to burst, there there is nothing central bankers can do to stop it – and we have plenty of bubbles awaiting their turn in the barrel.

You might be tempted to suspect that the inevitable unwind of a completely unsustainable margin mania is to blame for the brutal selling that has cost Chinese shares some $3.5 trillion in market value over the last three weeks. But you’d be wrong, according to several Chinese newspapers. 

• Greece and China expose limits of 'whatever it takes' (Reuters)
• China no longer has a market: China Stock Sellers Frozen Out of 71% of Market (BBG)
• China’s Market Rescue Makes Matters Worse as Prices Lose Meaning (BBG)
• China Stocks Plunge as State Support Fails to Revive Confidence (BBG)
• China Market Rout Spreads From Stocks to Price of Pig Food (BBG)
• China’s State-Owned Firms Ordered Not to Cut Share Holdings (BBG)
• Greece Requests Three-Year Bailout in First Step Toward Meeting Creditors’ Demand (WSJ)
• Greece Faces Euro Exit Unless Demands Accepted by Sunday (BBG)

Today's market battle will be between those (central banks) "hoping" that a Greek deal over the weekend is finally imminent (which on one hand looks possible after a major backpeddling by Tsipras - who may never have wanted to win the Greferendum in the first place - yesterday in Brussels and today during his speech in the Euro Parliament, but on the other will be a nearly impossible sell to Greece as any deal terms will be far harsher than the deal offered by the Troika 2 weeks ago and will have no debt reduction), and those who finally noticed that the Chinese central planners have effectively lost control.

Because when banning selling doesn’t work, the logical next step is to ban talking about selling...

When it comes to Greece, and Europe in general, "hope" continues to remain the driving strategy. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow summarizes this morning, "if you were looking for a word to describe the general feeling of equity markets today, you might well pick hopeful. U.S. equity futures opened higher and have been up all day. European bourses opened cautiously     higher as they await word, any word, from the European finance ministers or more importantly, Chancellor Merkel. Equity markets will continue to be very reactive to European headlines, but so far, no news has been taken as a reason for hope." Which incidentally, has been the general investment case for the past 6 years: "hope" that central banks know what they are doing.

“I don’t really follow news on stocks that closely. My hairdresser said it was still a bull market and I needed to get in”...

• Greece Bailout Referendum: They Voted ‘No’. Now What? (BBG)
• Varoufakis Quits as Greece Enters New Showdown With Europe (BBG)
• Merkel to Meet Hollande as Greece Told to Make Next Move (BBG)
• German line hardens after Greek referendum 'No' (Reuters)
• BOJ keeps rosy view of regional Japan, watching markets after Greek upset (Reuters)
• Oil falls on Greece vote, China stock market turmoil (Reuters)
• China Urges U.S.-Iran Compromise 36 Hours to Nuclear Deadline (BBG)
• U.S. and Iran: the unbearable awkwardness of defending your enemy (Reuters)