Hong Kong

“I’m staying conscious. Some people are buying stocks like they’re gambling in Macau," an investor in Hong Kong tells Bloomberg, underscoring what happens when a bubble in one market begins to spill over into another market. We suppose this is further evidence that no one is planning on listening to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, who recently warned that investors “shouldn’t be thinking if they don’t buy now, [they’ll] miss it.”

"While Dudley clearly does not want stocks to decline a lot, he also wants to avoid meaningful increases... Also very apparent is that Dudley wants bond prices to go down – not a lot but clearly down." - Bank of America

As noted several hours ago, the main story overnight is not that Greece once again narrowly averted a Grexit when it was reported it would make its scheduled payment to the IMF today (adding that next month is a "different story") a development that was met with yet another ultimatum by its "partner", the Eurozone, but the dot com bubble deja vu-esque move in Hong Kong stocks, where the Chinese, seemingly tired of pushing up their local market into the stratosphere have turned their attention southward and are desperate to buy up every single Hong Kong stock.

Sit back, grab some popcorn and just watch as the exponential gets exponentialer... and then it all goes splat.

"The world-beating surge in Chinese technology stocks is making the heady days of the dot-com bubble look tame by comparison...the industry is leading gains in China’s $6.9 trillion stock market, sending valuations to an average 220 times reported profits," Bloomberg reports, in yet another example of how stretched the margin-driven rally in Chinese stocks has become. We present the only chart you need to understand how this will end.

While US equity futures are largely unchanged, if only ahead of the now daily pre-open market-wide ramp, things in Asia have continued on their bubbly flurry, where China's Shanghai Composite briefly rose above 4000 for the first time since 2008, but it was the surge in the Hong Kong stock market that showed the Chinese bubble is finally spilling over, in the form of a blistering rally on the Hang Seng which rose nearly 4% on immense volume which at 250 billion Hong Kong dollars ($32 billion) was three times the average daily volume over the past year and nearly 20% more than the previous record volume day in October 2007, at the height of the pre-financial crisis bubble.

With 30% of the 'money' in Chinese stocks officially 'dumb money' and leverage of epic proportions, it is hardly surprising that the wealthiest of wealthy are - allegedly - taking advantage. As the broad Chinese stock market has surged, Hanergy Holding Group - the world's largest solar power company - has seen its stock price triple in a few months with late-day surges driving a lot of the gains. Amid accusations from the industry, Hanergy's chairman, Li Hejun - among China's wealthiest - has denied manipulation of its stock price, suggesting the public's recognition of the thin-film power generation's prospect is the reason... sure...

When it comes to our current pre-war, pre-revolutionary world (in Paul Tudor Jones' words) there are two social classes which are jockeying for the post positioning when it all comes crashing down: the Ultra High Net Worth, i.e., the 0.01%, those 211,275 individuals (and their families) who have a net worth over $30 million and who collectively control $30 trillion in wealth, and everyone else, with the countdown to extinction for the global middle class now getting louder by the day, leaving a world of a handful of uber-wealthy oligarchs and billions of, well, others. And nowhere is this distinction more vivid than when looking at their residential real estate holdings. But while the real estate of the 99.99% is boring (and increasingly in the form of rentals), when it comes to the dwellings of the 0.01% things get exciting, and are the topic of the latest joint report between Wealth-X and Sotheby's whose findings we summarize below.

• Setbacks and progress as Iran, six powers meet to end nuclear impasse (Reuters)
• Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Leave Iran Nuclear Talks (WSJ)
• Obama Ramps Up Lobbying on Iran as Deadline Looms (WSJ)
• Greek yields edge up as lenders scrutinise reform pledge (Reuters)
• Oil prices drop on possible Iran deal, dollar (Reuters)
• Yemen’s Houthis Battle for Aden as Saudi Strikes Hit Rebels (BBG)
• Iran nuclear deal to see $20 oil if Tehran floods crude market (Telegraph)
• China’s Zhou Says PBOC Has Room to Act on Growth Slowdown (BBG)

"If the RMB wants to achieve international status, it must have popular acceptance and a stable value. To this end, other than having assurance from the issuing nation, it is very important to have enough gold as the foundation, raising the ‘gold content’ of the RMB. Therefore, to China, the meaning and mission of gold is to support the RMB to become an internationally accepted currency and make China an economic powerhouse. That is why, in order for gold to fulfill its destined mission, we must raise our gold holdings a great deal, and do so with a solid plan. Step one should take us to the 4,000 tonnes mark, more than Germany and become number two in the world, next, we should increase step by step towards 8,500 tonnes, more than the US."

- Song Xin, Party Secretary and President of the China Gold Association

BNP is out with a note calling China’s equity bubble “a microcosm for the overall economy: unsustainable growth in leverage masking ever-deteriorating fundamentals and increasing future downside risks. Margin purchases are now accounting for almost 20% of equities daily turnover which itself has soared to wholly unprecedented levels in another sign of self-feeding speculative frenzy. What happens next is clearly an ‘unknown-unknown’."

• Saudi Arabia, allies launch air strikes in Yemen against Houthi fighters (Reuters)
• Pilot on Crashed Jet Was Locked Out of Cockpit, NY Times Says (BBG)
• Why Bombing This Tiny Oil Producer Is Roiling the Energy Market (BBG)
• U.S.-led coalition, Iraqis pound Islamic State in Tikrit (Reuters)
• Munger Says Prepare for Harder World as Buying Power Slides (BBG),Mocks Greek ‘Idiotic Idea’ You Can Vote Yourself Rich (BBG)
• The Central Banker Who Saved the Russian Economy From the Abyss (BBG)
• Bank of Canada says foreign buyers complicate housing market (Reuters)
• Investors Scoop Up Companies’ Bonds (WSJ)
• Espirito Santo Probe Turns Mariana Mortagua Into Portuguese Star (BBG)

• ECB Tells Greek Banks Not to Boost Exposure to Athens Government’s Debt (WSJ)
• Search teams probe wreckage of jet in French Alps (Reuters)
• Flight Recorders Offer Best Hope of Explaining Jet’s Fatal Drop (BBG)
• Yemen Houthi militia sweeps toward Aden in threat to president (Reuters)
• In Nigeria, Oil Price’s Slide Deters Theft (WSJ)
• Saudi Arabia building up military near Yemen border (Reuters)
• Quant Who Shook the Financial World Tries More Humble Approach (BBG)
• Executive Pensions Are Swelling at Top Companies (WSJ)

The New Silk Road, actually roads - boosted by a special, multi-billion-dollar Silk Road Fund and the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which, not by accident, has attracted the attention of European investors - symbolizes China’s pivot to an old heartland: Eurasia. Beijing has been quick to dismiss any notions of hegemony. It maintains this is no Marshall Plan. China, on the other hand,  is focused on integrating “emerging economies” into a vast, pan-Eurasian trade/commerce network. And that, crucially, would have to include Russia, which is a vital part of the New Silk Road through an upcoming, Russia-China financed $280 billion high-speed rail upgrade of the Trans-Siberian railway. This is where the New Silk Road project and President Putin’s initial idea of a huge trade emporium from Lisbon to Vladivostok actually merge.

• Saudis keep on pumping, oil prices keep on slumping (Reuters)
• Tenet Healthcare Nearing Deal to Buy United Surgical Partners (WSJ)
• Dizzying Pre-IPO Tech Values Spurred by Rush of Hedge-Fund Money (BBG)
• Russia threatens to aim nuclear missiles at Denmark ships if it joins NATO shield (Reuters)
• Torrent of Cash Exits Eurozone (WSJ)
• Draghi Cheerleads for Euro-Area Economy as Greek Risk Looms (BBG)
• Fortescue Mines for More Financing Options (WSJ)
• Topix Charts Evoke Calm Before ’13 Rout as Momentum Gains (BBG)