Reggie Middleton

I know you have heard a lot of negative stuff about commercial real estate, but most of it was after the fact, and the new stuff just doesn't seem to convey the gist of how far underwater many players actually are - or will be...

The world's most handsome and charismatic blogger stands outside his beloved friends at Goldman Sachs headquarters at 85 Broad (see pic) to congratulate them on the outstanding CMBS offering made through TALF government leveraging for Developers Diversified Realty (notice the funny looks that I am getting from the women in the background, haven't they seen a handsome and charismatic blogger before???). A few questions still linger, though...

The land recession, as foretold over two years ago, the Reggie Middleton CRE short list - round two, and the macro argument behind why most pundits are actually still too optimistic regarding CRE

How bad will the luxury hotel market get? Well,,, Pretty bad. All of those BS, "better than expected" earnings surprises off of severely lowered estimates stem not from top line revenue gains or economic progress, but from hacking jobs and cost cutting. Ya' think those Four Seasons', et. al. hyper-luxury executive suites are included in those cuts somewhere??? Here are all of those pretty graphs and interconnected hyperlinks to help tell the story...

For all of you momentum chasing, non-calculating, never touched a spreadsheet, CNBC luvin', James Cramer watchin' bulls out there, I have a feeling you will be hearing a lot of I told'ja so's over the next 12 months.

The REIT space has seen share prices pop significantly in this extended bear market rally. This, along with a few financial shenanigans, seems to have masked the effect that a literal real estate depression has had on those entities which buy, sell, develop and hold real estate. The fundamentals and macro outlook are still horrendous, yet share prices have been elevated significantly. Ackman, from Pershing Square, has released his short thesis on the REIT Realty Income, and I throw my 22 cents in (it was 2 cents, but I levered up 10x), as well as offer another REIT with a greater cash flow problem...

Here I show a direct comparison of my "on the street, grass roots" and "spreadsheet" observations to that of what is portrayed in the media. Let me know if you see any discrepancies...