Unemployment

In case you have been hibernating, the European Union (EU) is already in a complete state of disarray. Everywhere you look - economy, politics, security, society, demographics - there are very serious problems with no credible solution in sight. This does not bode well for the future of the EU, starting with those who will be living in it.  The EU doesn't need any nationalists to destroy its future prospects. It’s doing absolutely fine on its own.

The cries for going totally crazy are growing louder... the lunatics are running the asylum. One shouldn’t underestimate what they are capable of. The only consolation is that the day will come when the monetary cranks will be discredited again (for the umpteenth time). Thereafter it will presumably take a few decades before these ideas will rear their head again (like an especially sturdy weed, the idea that inflationism can promote prosperity seems nigh ineradicable in the long term – it always rises from the ashes again). The bad news is that many of us will probably still be around when the bill for these idiocies will be presented.

We will let readers decide if the 1.3% increase in total employment, less than half what it was last October,  is the answer.

The 'crapification' of jobs is the direct result of the 'crapification' of the economy.

If there was any doubt if the Fed would hike rates in December, it is gone now: October payrolls soared by 271K, smashing not only consensus of 184K, but the highest expected print. This was the highest monthly print since December 2014 when the gain was 329K and pushed the YTD average monthly gain from 199K to 206K.

• Bank of America 150K
• BNP Paribas 150K
• Morgan Stanley 165K
• Deutsche Bank 175K
• JPMorgan 175K
• HSBC 175K
• UBS 180K
• Goldman Sachs 190K

As DB so well-puts it, "Welcome to random number generator day also known as US payrolls." Consensus expects 185k jobs to have been added in October but it’s fair to say that the whisper number has edged up this week with slightly firmer US data. It is also fair to say that even if one knew the number beforehand, it would be impossible to know how the market will react.

Greece’s Public Power Company is angry. The amount of unpaid bills by its customers has reached the astronomic EUR 2.5 billion. The PPC is so angry that it plans to cut the power to those without outstanding debts as soon as possible - a whopping 2.1 million Greeks face darkness.

"Real Output" is perhaps an even more accurate indication of the true state of the US domestic economy considering all the complaints by the Fed over the state of the global economy and eliminate the "noise" from trade which has been depressing GDP for quarters. Unfortunately, what the real output data reveals is not pretty. Rising by 2.3% Y/Y in Q3, this was not only down substantially from 3.4% in Q3 and 3.5% in Q1, but this was the weakest increase since Q1 2014! And then there are jobs...

The production structure has long since adapted to ZIRP and “short-term gambling, punting on momentum-driven moves, on levered buybacks” are further lifting the opportunity costs of abandoning it. In order to try to rescue its credibility, the Fed may decide to try some timid, quarter-point increases. But what will they do if markets really crash?

Over the past decade; our markets have ceased to behave like “markets”, at all. 

The stock market has been soaring, but all of the hard economic numbers are telling us that a major global recession is here.  This is so reminiscent of what happened back in 2008.  Back then, all of the fundamentals were screaming “recession” by the middle of that year, but the equity markets didn’t respond until later.  It appears that a similar pattern is playing out right now. Just like in 2008, the irrational optimists are going to keep chanting their happy mantras for as long as they possibly can.

"The options market seems to either be anticipating an inflection higher in the economic data, no rate hike, or an extreme lack of catalysts between now and year-end," according to Goldman Sachs' Krag Gregory. With VIX trading with a 13 handle, Gregroy warns, it is notably under-priced relative a 19 handle more in line with economic and policy uncertainty. The potential for volatility to swing higher seems more likely. Bottom line: a VIX back at 2013-2014 levels seems low if a December rate hike really is in play.

The fundamental problem facing today’s economy is the flagrant contempt by governments the world over for the free exchange of goods and services and private stewardship of property. Perhaps it is power and control governments are after. Maybe they believe they are improving the economy and making the world a better place for all. No one really knows for sure. But what is lucidly clear is the muddled disorder modern day economic policies have wrought upon us.

While there are certainly reasons to be "hopeful" that stocks will continue to rise into the future, "hope" has rarely been a fruitful investment strategy longer term. Therefore, let's analyze each of the optimist's arguments from both perspectives to eliminate "confirmation bias."