Obamacare

European equities trade negatively as political tensions on both sides of the Atlantic dampens risk appetite and a lower than expected HSBC manufacturing PMI figure from China further weighs upon investor sentiment. In the US, government is on the precipice of the first shutdown since 1996 after House Republicans refused to pass a budget unless it involved a delay to Obama’s signature healthcare reforms. If the Republicans follow through with their threat a shutdown will occur at midnight tonight. As a result a fixed income in the US and core Europe benefit with investors wary of the immediate harm a shutdown will do to confidence in the economy.

With even the most compromising politicians on both sides of the aisle admitting at least a brief government shutdown is inevitable (and according to Stone McCarthy the shutdown will hardly be brief and will affect the timely release of such major economic indicators as construction spending, factory orders and the employment number on Friday), the next question arises: how have markets responded to not only shutdowns, but also debt ceiling impasse (with the memory of August 2011 still very vivid) in the past. Here is the full answer from Deutsche's Dominic Constam: "In a shutdown scenario, government agency-compiled economic data releases could be delayed, while essential services, such as Treasury auctions, interest and principal payments on Treasury securities will not be affected. Some federal workers could be furloughed. The most recent government shutdown occurred in late 1995 to early 1996, and lasted about three weeks. Payroll and retail sales data were delayed during that period."

On a rare Saturday session (now Sunday); in a not-too-surprising vote down party lines, the House has voted in favor of the continued-military-funding, medical-device-tax-repealing, Obamacare-delaying continuing resolution that keeps the government paid until December 15th...

*HOUSE PASSES 231-192 OBAMACARE DELAY IN U.S. SPENDING BILL

*HOUSE VOTES 423-0 TO FUND TROOPS IF GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN

Now it's off to the Senate and Harry Reid's 'over-my-dead-body' as the White House prepares for Government Shutdown.. (and/or veto) with little (or no) time to cobble together a last-minute deal.

Just like that, we are back to square minus one, with the House again punting to the senate:

• HOUSE VOTES 231 TO 192 TO DELAY OBAMACARE FOR ONE YEAR, AVERT GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
• 2 DEMOCRATS VOTE YES, 2 REPUBLICANS VOTE NO
• HOUSE UNANIMOUSLY VOTES 423-0 ON "PAY OUR MILITARY ACT" ENSURING TROOPS ARE PAID DURING GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

As repeatedly reported earlier, the Senate will promptly squash said bill once again as it did with the defunding CR, in effect leaving essentially no time to cobble a deal together ahead of the the October 1 government shutdown.

Barack Obama promised to fundamentally transform America, and when it comes to health care he has definitely kept his promise. As a result of Obamacare, health care spending is up, health insurance premiums are up, the number of hours Americans are working is down and employer-based health insurance is becoming an endangered species. Of course employer-based health insurance will not disappear completely any time soon, but it has been steadily shrinking for over a decade, and Obamacare will greatly accelerate that decline. So Americans are going to pay more, get worse care, have more paperwork and a more complicated system, and they are likely to die younger too? Wow, that sounds like a great deal.

UPDATE: The Bill is currently under debate on the floor - live webcast (Final votes are expected after 11pm ET.)

It appears investors (CDS markets, VIX, T-Bills anxiety) were on to something as each side in the  looming government shutdown debate seems mired in their own belief that the other has more to lose. House Republicans are aiming to hold a vote today on a bill to extend government funding through December 15th and ensuring the military gets paid on any shutdown, but...

• HOUSE PLAN WOULD DELAY OBAMACARE ONE YEAR, LAWMAKER SAYS

And as the WSJ reports, Harry Reid has already stated that "we are going to accept nothing as it related to Obamacare," before adjourning the Senate until Monday afternoon (narrowing the gap for a shutdown-avoidance vote). The shutdown-blame-game has begun as it seems the ball is back in the Senate's court...

Here are six things to ponder this weekend:

1. Inflation Debate Continues
2. The Obamacare Nightmare
3. The Disconnect Between "Main Street" and "Wall Street"
4. Payroll Number Become Even More Manipulated
5. Congress Living The High Life At The Taxpayers Expense
6. What If The "Fear Trade" Bubbles Up?

With government shutdown day (now in 3-D IMAX) just four days away, some are unsure what the latest developments are in the fluid and rapidly shifting landscape of Capitol Hill. For their benefit, here is a pithy but comprehensive summary of where we stand currently.

3:30 pm on a Friday, check. 4 days away before a possible government shutdown, check. Epic disagreement in the House over everything and anything, check. A president who can read but not really lead, check ("to you, Mr. Yellen"). So what comes next? The president takes the teleprompted podium, of course, and is about to do what he does best: blame the republicans. The only unknown: will the "middle class" people on the podium behind Obama be representative of the (non) deadbeat class whose credit cards have been cut off too?

Update: Senate Achieves 60 Votes to Advance Stop-Gap Spending Measure

The vote in the Senate to pass a stopgap spending bill/continuing resolution that strips out the Obamacare defunding provision has begun. It will promptly pass and be sent back to the House where the confused wrangling (see "Plan C") among the GOP will resume. Watch it live.

While everyone knows that there is a profound ideological schism when it comes to those for and against the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, what may not be appreciated is that Obamacare was, and still is, the most contentious and polarizing legislation in the history of Congress. At least, it is according to JPMorgan. In the chart below, JPM's Michael Cembalest shows that the "disagreement gap" between Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate, over 100 years of impactful legislation, has never been greater than with Obamacare.

First the House passed a spending bill that would avert a September 30 government shutdown, and extending government funding to November 15, however with an Obamacare defunding provision. Naturally, the Senate struck it down, and would propose a clean funding bill ex-any Obamacare defunding provisions, with a funding provision for an additional month. Moments ago, Boehner made it clear that the House is unlikely to accept a clean spending bill from the Senate, increasing the chances of a government shutdown after Sept. 30. "I don’t see that happening," Boehner told reporters at a Capitol press conference. So back to square zero, with Congress nowhere closer to a compromise, a continuing resolution just as unlikely as it was before the latest episode of grandstanding began, and five days left until government shuts itself down.

With mere days to go until he unveils the "exchanges", the President is in Largo, MD to explain how great it's going to be... This won't help him:

*DEMOCRAT MANCHIN BREAKS RANKS TO BACK INDIVIDUAL-MANDATE DELAY

The best summary of what has (not) been going on in the downward drifting equity markets comes from DB's Jim Reid, quoting: "Markets are in non-panicky limbo at the moment ahead of the upcoming US budget debate. US equities fell for the 5th day in row (S&P 500 -0.27%) and although this is the worst run since the Christmas/New Year’s Eve period of 2012 (due to the fiscal cliff debacle), the cumulative fall is only -1.9% over this decline. Meanwhile Treasuries hit a 7-week low in yield as they recorded their 12th decline in the last 14 days." As has been the case over the past week, stocks in Asia have generally traded lower with the exception of the Nikkei225 which day after day continues to do its insane penny stock thing, first dropping -1.5% only to close up 1.2% on absolutely no news, but some chatter the Abe administration would raise the sales tax on October 1, only to offset the fiscal benefit by lowering corporate tax.  How this has any net impact is beyond us. Proceeding to Europe, stocks failed to sustain the initial higher open and moved into negative territory, with Italian asset classes underperforming, as market participants digested reports citing Italian MP Gasparri saying that PdL lawmakers are ready to quit if Berlusconi is ousted. This in turn saw a number of Italian banking stocks come under intense selling pressure, with the Italian/German yield spread widening in spite of supportive reinvestment flows that are due this week.

The Obamacare that consumers will finally be able to sign up for next week is a long way from the health plan President Obama first pitched to the nation. As Politico notes, millions of low-income Americans won’t receive coverage. Many workers at small businesses won’t get a choice of insurance plans right away. Large employers won’t need to provide insurance for another year. Far more states than expected won’t run their own insurance marketplaces. And a growing number of workers won’t get to keep their employer-provided coverage. But, apart from that - and all the exemptions - six more days and we will all get to see the shiny new exchanges; which may (or may not) prove Sen. Barraso right when he said "It was bad policy and bad politics. They got it wrong on all accounts."