NASDAQ

Amid the fourth heaviest volume of the year, Apple shares fell over 4% today - its largest single-day drop in six months (and largest two-day drop in 23 months) and GOOG also fell over 3%. This dragged the NASDAQ down but the S&P 500 (which was implicitly hurt by this major underperformance) managed to survive with relatively minimal damage close-to-close as the EUR repatriation drove TSY yields up and the USD down with correlations doing the rest to support stocks. Heavier volume and trade size came in as ES (the S&P 500 e-mini future) slid notably into the close though - almost 10pts off its afternoon highs and over 1% off its day-session opening levels (which were the highs). USD weakness accelerated rapidly after the European close - quite evenly distributed across all the majors but EUR weighed heavily as it retraced most of Friday's losses. The USD selling stopped around 130pm ET. The USD weakness supported some recovery from early weakness in commodities but the second largest compression in Brent-WTI in 16 months to around $15 - led by Brent more than WTI - on the Seaway reversal date being brought forward, was the biggest news in commodities. Silver ended unch and gold down modestly. Credit outperformed stocks on the day (and from open-to-close) but this seems as much credit-equity index arb as credit remains notably weaker. HYG stayed in sync with SPY today after we first noted the convergence on Friday (following the April asset allocation shift). After rallying early, Treasuries stabilized through the USD selling frenzy immediately post-European close but as the USD stabilized in the late afternoon (and AUD weakened) so Treasuries were oddly sold off (along with stocks) ending the day basically unchanged (after being lower by 4-5bps before the US open). VIX closed unchanged after opening lower and pushing to well over 20% at its worst - as 19% seemed to support it as we rallied in the afternoon. ES tested above its 50DMA once again and closed back below it on a relatively heavy day with very low average trade size.

The "value" of insurance is not always apparent until after the house burns down.

Volatility is back. The S&P moved more than 1% on 4 of the 5 days, had the biggest down day of the year, and even the least volatile day was a 0.7% move.

"All might be well in China, but Europe again is a cause for serious concern. Spain is the victim of the most intense violence – CDS trades to new all-time wides, and local banks sent nearly 5% lower. The hope might have been that once European markets closed, US equities would recoup losses. But there’s no place for hope on Friday the 13th, and stocks close at the low. The post-close price action in futures was even worse as ES1 drops further still. Back below the 50d again. Perhaps spillover from weakness in European financials, but problematic as tech, the other obvious leader of the year’s rally, is also flagging. SPX drops 17 to close 1370 (-1.25%). The DOW drops 137 to close 12850 (1.05%). The NASDAQ drops 44 to close 3011 (-1.45%)."

The headlines flow in:

• GOOGLE 1Q REVENUE $10.65B
• GOOGLE 1Q REVENUE EX TAC $8.14B, EST. $8.14B
• GOOGLE 1Q ADJ. EPS $10.08, EST. $9.64
• GOOGLE 1Q PAID CLICKS ROSE 39% VS YEAR AGO
• GOOGLE 1Q TRAFFIC ACQUISITION COSTS $2.51B
• GOOGLE 1Q COST PER CLICK DOWN 12%

The Apple trade, it works very well... util it doesn't. What happens when ALL of those funds change course???

Late last year, I paid a visit to Josh Brown ("The Reformed Broker") and had a pleasant chat. I went to his blog a week later and put up a comment, shown below, stating my belief that Facebook's IPO day would mark an important turning point in the market.

Since Goldman continues to press clients into the worst trade recommendation in the firm's history (remember that once in a lifetime long equity, bond short? no? look here) it means that at least the Goldman version of Bruno Iksil who sits on the firm's prop desk (but only hedge for god's sake, don't go getting any ideas) is having a great time since he is on the other side across from Goldman's clients. Still, while we won't feel bad for them, it is always interesting to note what are the things that Goldman watches for during market wipe outs, such as today, the worst day of trading so far in 2012. So without further ado, here is Goldman's Tuesday roundup.

Treasuries vs. Stocks (for now)

It's hard being a bear, except this week wasn't so bad.

This is easily the meatiest, most offensive, most controversial and probably the most hardhitting post of the year. Here's proof that Goldman STUFFED ITS MUPPET clients!!! 20 pgs of research warning non-muppet clients to back off, proof of the Muppet biz model...

Can this last?

What a quarter! The Dow up 8% and enjoying a record quarter in terms of points — 994 of them to be exact and in percent terms, now just 7% off attaining a new all-time high. The S&P 500 surged 12% (and 3.1% for March; 28% from the October 2011 lows), which was the best performance since 1998. It seems so strange to draw comparisons to 1998, which was the infancy of the Internet revolution; a period of fiscal stability, 5% risk-free rates, sustained 4% real growth in the economy, strong housing markets, political stability, sub-5% unemployment, a stable and predictable central bank. And look at the composition of the rally. Apple soared 48% and accounted for nearly 20% of the appreciation in the S&P 500. But outside of Apple, what led the rally were the low-quality names that got so beat up last year, such as Bank of America bouncing 72% (it was the Dow's worst performer in 2011; financials in aggregate rose 22%). Sears Holdings have skyrocketed 108% this year even though the company doesn't expect to make money this year or next. What does that tell you? What it says is that this bull run was really more about pricing out a possible financial disaster coming out of Europe than anything that could really be described as positive on the global macroeconomic front. What is most fascinating is how the private client sector simply refuses to drink from the Fed liquidity spiked punch bowl, having been burnt by two central bank-induced bubbles separated less than a decade apart leaving David Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff, still rightly focused on benefiting from his long-term 3-D view of deleveraging, demographics, and deflation - as he notes US data is on notably shaky ground. This appears to have been very much a trader's rally as he reminds us that liquidity is not an antidote for fundamentals.

Overnight, the NYT's Nicholas Kristof penned an article which exposes Goldman, already deeply embroiled in muppetgate damage control, as being a 16% indirect owner in Backpage, an "emporium for girls and women - some under age or forced into prostitution... which has 70 percent of the market for prostitution ads, according to AIM Group, a trade organization." " Yet some may be surprised to learn that this is not the firm's only expansion into the world of monetized prostitution. As the chart below shows, as of Q4, 2011, the firm also happens to be the top ten owner of Adult Friend Finder (Nasdaq: FFN), a company which recently went public, and which is nothing more than a porn portal for women, who can sell their "assets" to the highest bidder.

It seems like yesterday that to much pomp and circumstance, Groupon came public. We can only hope that anyone who bought into the public offering sold long ago, because the company has just decided to TVIX the muppets:

• GROUPON CUTS FORECAST - BBG
  
• GROUPON REFUND RESERVE ACCRUAL INCREASED - BBG

But most importantly:

• GROUPON SAYS MATERIAL WEAKNESS IN INTERNAL CONTROLS - BBG

We are fairly confident that the stock will continue imploding after hours until such time as confidence in the stock market returns.