Israel

In what is becoming an increasingly more confusing conflict - is it truly an ideological war, or merely an extended attempt to generate empathy via social networking, together with a full-blown conflict on twitter - Israel continued its pinpoint strikes in Gaza overnight, taking out the house of a high-ranking Hamas operative, together with the release of commemorative video showing the explosion moments after the event. The clip is below. What is more curious is that the global hacker group Anonymous has already picked its side, and yesterday launched a massive attack named #OpIsrael, which has so far hacked 700 Israeli websites. From RT: "The hackers reportedly took down websites ranging from high-profile governmental structures such as the Foreign Ministry to local tourism companies’ pages. The biggest attack as of now has been the Israeli Foreign Ministry’s international development program, titled Mashav. Anonymous announced on Twitter they’ve hacked into the program’s database, with the website remaining inaccessible at the moment." And most notably, Anonymous also took down the primary nexus used by Israel's to boast about its military exploits: the blog of the Israel Defense Forces, which has been down for half a day now.

A ground invasion, and a reoccupation of Gaza by the IDF could be the first step toward engaging Iran. It would allow for Israel to dislodge Hamas, and create a buffer between Israel and Egypt, and the forces of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Morsi government in Egypt has pledged to support the Palestinians — but is this a bluff? Does Egypt have the capability or the desire to really oppose Israel? Does Iran really have the capability or the desire to oppose Israel in a more active way? Ultimately, Iran may have no choice, as Netanyahu is certain that they are on the nuclear threshold. The world is in motion. Israel is playing its cards. The intent? To create facts on the ground that cement Israel’s position as the dominant power in the middle east for the next century. Now, Iran’s move.

Election Politics ... Or Precursor to Iran War?

Update: Israel CDS 162/170, +8 bps

Earlier today, air raid sirens went off in Tel Aviv, and even Jerusalem was supposedly in danger of a missile attack: hardly the deescalation Israel was hoping to see. Sure enough, the ball is in Bibi's court and he wastes not time:

• NETANYAHU CONVENING MINISTERS TO APPROVE RESERVES CALL-UP; TV
• ISRAEL PLANNING TO CALL UP 75,000 RESERVISTS, CHANNEL TWO SAYS

Next: flip flops and other various closed-toed shoes on the ground.

Markets have come to their senses a little and are selling off as news breaks of a plethora of concerning headlines from Israel:

• *AIR RAID SIRENS HEARD OVER JERUSALEM
• *HAMAS CLAIMS FIRED ROCKET TOWARD JERUSALEM AREA, CHANNEL 2 SAYS
• *HAMAS CLAIMS IT HIT ISRAELI JET OVER GAZA STRIP
• *HAMAS SAYS FIRED AT ISRAELI PARLIAMENT IN JERUSALEM
• *FLASH: EXPLOSION HEARD IN JERUSALEM AREA: LOCAL MEDIA

Not good at all...

In a word, this weekend, next week, we are facing what the boys in the South call “chicken fried.” This is the moment when the ingredients lounging in your kitchen get tossed in the frying pan and are cooked up with grease (perhaps Greece) splattering everywhere and some concoction that is decidedly unhealthy for you is tossed upon your plate. A week ago the menu consisted of the Capitol Grill of America’s Fiscal Cliff, the red wine (perhaps whine) of Spain and the seemingly never ending fried in olive oil mess provided by both Athens and Brussels. That would have been enough “Opa” for anyone as plates get smashed and people whirl around on some table like dervishes but now we have a new option on the menu, a special provided by the Great Chef in the sky. We get to throw in the latkes of Israel and the hummus provided by Hamas. Any of these menu selections could provide severe heartburn all by themselves but eaten together; a hospital stay may be required or a plot at the cemetery.

Each day we wake and look to the markets for guidance. Typically that guidance means - which easily-leveragable asset class can be pulled (or pushed) to move the US equity markets (in their algo-correlated manner) in which ever direction we need (up as much as possible obviously since the status quo requires it). Sometimes, it's EURUSD, other times it's PMs; today, it is oil's turn! There has been no real escalation in tensions in Israel in the last hour, no news of significance; and yet WTI has popped 1.5% and in an almost perfectly correlated manner, S&P futures have chugged along to the highs of the day to run those stops before the US day-session open. Efficient Markets... Pin Risk... OPEX...

• Israel Mobilizes Troops as Hostilities Escalate (WSJ)
• FHA Sets Stage for Taxpayer Subsidy With 2012 Deficit (Bloomberg)
• On eve of fiscal cliff talks, positions harden (Reuters)
• Japan PM Noda contradicts challenger Abe on BOJ (Reuters)
• Regulators cut JPMorgan's ability to trade power (Reuters)
• EU Should Reach Agreement on Greek Aid Next Week, Grilli Says (BBG)
• Moscovici rejects talk of French crisis (FT)
• Egypt Urges Push for Gaza Peace as Rockets Hit Israel (BBG)
• Leading Japan politicians draw election battle lines (Reuters)
• Fed Push to Tie Zero-Rate to Economic Goals Faces Doubts (BBG)
• China’s commerce minister voted out in rare congress snub (Reuters)
• China’s new leaders could have reform thrust upon them (Reuters)
• Both Sides of Gaza Border Brace for Further Conflict (WSJ)
• Fed Sees Hurdles in Housing Rebound (Hilsenrath)
• The Complete 2012 Business Schools Ranking (Bloomberg)

There was precious little in terms of actionable news in the overnight session, which means that, like a broken record, Europe falls back to contemplating its two main question marks: Greece and Spain, with the former once again making noises about the "inevitability" of receiving the Troika's long delayed €31.5 billion rescue tranche. The chief noise emitter was Italian Finance Minister Vittorio Grilli who said he was "confident that euro-region finance chiefs will reach an agreement on aiding Greece when they meet next week." He was joined by Luxembourg Finance Minister Frieden who also "saw" a Greek solution on November 20. Naturally, what the two thing is irrelevant: when it comes to funding cash flows, only Germany matters, everything else is noise, and so far Schauble has made it clear Germany has to vote on the final Troika report so Europe continues to be in stasis when it comes to its main talking point. In fundamental European news, there was once again nothing positive to report as Euro-area exports fell in September as the region’s economy slipped into a recession for the second time in four years. Exports declined a 1.1% from August, when they gained 3.3%. Imports dropped 2.7%. The trade surplus widened to 11.3 billion euros from a revised 8.9 billion euros in the previous month. Global trade, at whose nexus Europe has always been at the apex, continues to shrink rapidly. Elsewhere, geopolitical developments between Israel and Gaza have been muted with little to report, although this will hardly remain as is. Providing some news amusement is Japan, where the LDP opposition leader Shinzo Abe continues to threaten that he will make the BOJ a formal branch of the government and will impose 2% inflation targeting, which in turn explain the ongoing move in the USDJPY higher. This too will fade when laughter takes the place of stunned silence.

Someone is lying here: either Hamas did not down an IDF drone, dubbed "Sky Light", and the clip below is one big fraud (unclear why Hamas would go to such a length to fabricate a downed drone video), or the IDF is lying when it said it "confirmed" that one of its drones had been shot down. Either way, we have a feeling that the airborne campaign is coming to an end, and that Israel may and likely will escalate to a full blown land invasion very soon unless something dramatically changes. We fail to see what catalyzes this.

Update: the following tweet from Israel's ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, will hardly help: "ALERT: Tel Aviv area was just hit by a rocket attack from #Gaza"

Despite having lost its prominent headline position in the global media, the things in Gaza are going from bad to worse with news reports that Israeli ground forces are preparing to enter the Gaza Strip which will take the confrontation to an effective ground war level, even as a separate news report claims that Egypt has now closed its border with Israel, in yet another escalation. It is unclear how soon until Egypt also halts gas supplies to Israel as it did back in April - we assume not too long. So as the world awaits the next major step in a conflict that has a Katyusha rocket's chance in the Iron Dome of going away on its own, we present the latest clip provided by the handy, if oddly boastful, Israeli Defense Forces, this time showing how a rocket warehouse in Gaza just became one with the ether. Tangentially, and once again, we can't help but lament how a Plan X involving the US military would be an option here, if only the entire US military and intelligence hadn't become a gonzo reality TV show virtually overnight.

ith Israel having launched the biggest Gaza escalation in years, the waiting game now turns to the Gaza retaliation, which if the rhetoric is any indication, will be substantial. So what can Gaza do, and how far can its rockets penetrate, assuming they can bypass the Israeli "Iron Dome" defense shield? The following infographic from Stratfor explains it. The ranging is particularly relevant in the context of the Dimona nuclear power plant, which at least at first blush appears unreachable - after all, if Gaza really wanted to unleash the gates of hell on Israel, it would focus all of its firepower precisely on this one spot.

The World Gold Council issued a report “Global gold demand reflects challenging global economic climate: ETFs up 56% and India up 9% in Q3 2012”  which showed that global gold demand fell 11% in the three months to September from record levels seen during the same period last year, which was curbed by a sluggish Chinese economy and stronger Indian demand limited the drop. In Q3 2012, gold investment demand (total bar and coin demand plus ETFs and similar products) was 429.9 tonnes down 16% from Q3 2011. Although the year-on-year snapshot for investment demand suggests falling interest, this is not the case. Rather, it highlights the strong demand seen in Q3 2011. Interestingly, demand for ETFs rose 56% to 136t, compared to Q3 2011. Demand for gold-backed ETFs in Q3 grew significantly in the quarter partially due to institutions responding to the additional QE measures in the US and Europe. At 87 tonnes, Q3 2012 investment demand for gold surged from 78 tonnes in Q2, a rise of 12%. Examining this over the longer term, Q3 represents the first quarter-on-quarter increase in Indian investment demand since Q2 2011.

• Wal-Mart misses topline expectations: Revenue $113.93bn, Exp $114.89bn, Sees full year EPS $4.88-$4.93, Exp. $4.94, Unveils new FCPA allegations; Stock down nearly 4%
• China chooses conservative new leaders (FT)
• Eurozone falls back into recession (FT)
• Moody’s to Assess U.K.’s Aaa Rating in 2013 Amid Slowing Economy (Bloomberg)
• Another bailout is imminent: FHA Nears Need for Taxpayer Funds (WSJ)
• Hamas chief vows to keep up "resistance" after Jaabari killed (Reuters)
• Obama calls for rich to pay more, keep middle-class cuts (Reuters)
• Obama Undecided on FBI's Petraeus Probe (WSJ)
• Battle lines drawn over “growth revenue” in fiscal cliff talks (Reuters)
• Rajoy’s Path to Bailout Clears as EU Endorses Austerity (Bloomberg)
• Zhou Seen Leaving PBOC as China Picks New Economic Chiefs (Bloomberg)
• Russia warns of tough response to U.S. human rights bill (Reuters)
• Japan Opposition Leader Ups Pressure on Central Bank (WSJ)
• Zhou Seen Leaving PBOC as China Picks New Economic Chiefs (Bloomberg)

The main overnight event, if not very surprising, was the formal announcement of the power moves at the top of China from the now concluding 18th Communist Party Congress, which occured largely as expected. To summarize: "Xi Jinping took the helm Thursday of a new, trimmed down Communist Party leadership that insiders said was shaped less by the daunting economic and political challenges facing China over the next decade than by bitter personal and factional rivalries within a secretive Party elite.  In a surprise move, Mr. Xi replaced outgoing Party chief Hu Jintao as head of the powerful Central Military Commission, which controls the armed forces, making Mr. Hu the first Communist Chinese leader to cede all formal powers without bloodshed, purges or political unrest. But the new leadership lineup did not include the two figures with the strongest track record on political reform, dimming prospects that a new generation of rulers is committed to tackling vested interests within its own ranks." In other words and just like after the US elections - to quote the announcement during every 2:15 FOMC release from now until eternity - "no change, repeat, no change" (and the SHCOMP closing down 1.22%, and the Hang Seng down by over 1.5% more or less confirmed this). An interactive infographic of who's the new who in China can be found here, while a summary of what this means and what to expect are here and here.  Elsewhere, the other main event was the formal announcement that, as everyone certainly expected, Europe officially is now in a recession. The euro-area economy slipped into a recession for the second time in four years, with GDP falling 0.1 percent in the third quarter. The official start date of Europe's recession is now Q3 2011. And with October Eurozone CPI pushing at a perky pace of 2.5%, one can add stagflation to the official list of terms haunting Europe.