Israel

European stock futures have trended higher today in relatively light volumes as the market awaits key interest rate decisions (BoE & ECB) and with the deadline for the Greek debt swap deal looming. The latest talk this morning has been that the participation in the PSI deal has been well received and coupled with speculation of a Chinese RRR cut overnight and stops tripped in the E-mini S&P and Eurostoxx futures earlier this morning, contributed to a large portion of the move higher. As a consequence, the USD index has weakened (-0.5%) which has lifted the EUR/USD pair back firmly though the 1.3200 level to the upside and Brent/WTI crude futures are seen higher ahead of the NYMEX pit open. Looking ahead we await the ECB press conference as well as the latest jobs data from the US due at 1330GMT.

The rally for what could be World War III is in full swing. The truth amounts to very little on the eve of war.  Iraq and the lies surrounding weapons of mass destruction proved this lesson almost a decade ago.  Unfortunately for the people of America, Israel, and Iran, the political class and power wielders of their respective governments refuse to learn.  Their desire is for more authority and prestige; no matter how many bodies it costs. With the administration now seeking to provide assistance to the opposition forces in Syria, intervention and war with Iran is only an eventuality at this point.

Perhaps not so shockingly, AP is reporting tonight that satellite images of Iranian military facilities show trucks and other earth moving vehicles. Diplomats, accredited to the IAEA, suggest this indicates attempted cleanup of radioactive traces possibly left by tests of a nuclear-weapon trigger. As sanctions grow more burdensome and Israel's pre-emptive rhetoric rises, the discovery of this sanitization effort only raises the stakes as the images are said to be very recent and updated constantly and suggest evidence of tests of a small experimental neutron device. This wouldn't be the first time a site has been 'sanitized' prior to IAEA inspector visits but as The Boston Globe reports IAEA expert teams have tried twice - and failed - in recent weeks to get Iranian permission to visit this area and now (following the apparent clean-up) they have finally been granted access. As the US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China postpone their meeting, in an effort to find more moderate language to criticize Iran, it seems to us that actions may just start having more impact than words very soon.

Update: the Official name of the iPad 3 is ... "The New iPad" - probably means "Awesome Table Thingy" was taken by another Chinese maker.

AAPL just went red for the day and we note NFLX is also down 2.5% now on the day, as business models proceed to start cannibalizing each other in a world in which consumer cash is actually, gasp, finite. In other news we expect the formal name of the iPad 3 to be revealed as "iECB Collateral" in which case watch as the stock price soars and the company's market cap moves to match the ECB's $4 trillion balance sheet once Europe's taxpayers are forced to bailout not only Greece but the biggest hedge fund hotel of all time. That. Or wait until the Bank of iSrael to lift all offers all the way through the iNBBO. One thing is certain, however: due to its edibility, the iPad3 will surely be sterilized.

Markets appear to be tentatively recovering some of yesterday’s heavy losses, recording modest gains so far this morning. Comments made overnight by the German finance minister as well as senior officials from the Greek finance ministry may have mercifully given market participants some hope as they are confident the Greek PSI deal will be completed by the deadline tomorrow evening. The DAX index has underperformed the other European equity indices in recent trade following the release of some disappointing factory orders data for January, with markets expecting an expansion of 0.6%, however the reading came in at -2.7%, moving DAX stock futures into negative territory. WTI crude and Brent have also retraced some of their losses made earlier in the week following a drawdown in US gasoline inventories reported last night as well as a generally weak USD index in the FX markets today. Markets are awaiting US ADP employment change later in the session, as well as the weekly DOE oil inventories casting further light on the US energy stocks.

Something funny happened in January as the EURUSD rose from its period low in the 1.26 level: German Industrial Orders imploded as the joint currency strengthened. But not so much for domestic orders within the Eurozone, which actually increased by 0.9% in January (as a reminder, the sole reason mercantilism still works efficiently within the Eurozone is that the Bundesbank, via TARGET2 and the ECB, subsidizes the import economies of the periphery via recycled Current Account proceeds, as shown here). Where the demand collapse came from was non-Eurozone (read China and America) orders which fell a whopping 8.6% in January, after posting a 12.1% rise in December as the EUR was plumbing 2011 lows. As a result, the blended orders rate was down 2.7% on expectations of a 0.6% increase. Does it become clear now why resolving the Greek crisis is not in Germany's interest, as all that would do is send the EUR even higher, and impair German industry - the lifeblood of Europe - even more? Alternatively, does it become clear why Bernanke is just itching to shift the weak currency regime from Europe and back to the US again, with the only thing holding him back being the fear of crude exploding, especially if some Made in Israel bunker busters explode somewhere deep in the Zagros mountains?

All you need to read.

Obama takes on Syria and Iran in his Netanyahu meeting post-mortem. Every time the President says "Israel", "AIPAC", "Friend", "Syria", "Iran", "Terrorists", "Threat", and "Nuke them out of orbit" everyone does a shot.

Markets are exhibiting very risk-averse behaviour ahead of the US open, with European equity markets making heavy losses across the board with flows into the safer assets. This follows Greece dominating the headlines once again, with a report from the IIF warning of dangerous ramifications for Europe should Greece default. These reports got the European session off to a bad start, with losses made throughout the morning. Market talk of a delay in the Greek debt swap deal deadline has also been circulating, however this was swiftly denied by the Greek Debt Agency chief as well as the Greek Finance Ministry, although this failed to reassure markets and they continue on a downward trend into the US open. Eurozone GDP data released earlier in the session showed a contraction in the last quarter of 2011, although expected, this has reignited concerns of a recession in Europe. The ECB have recorded yet another record level of deposits from European banks in its overnight lending facility, with institutions depositing EUR 827.5bln on Monday night.

• Cotton prices jump as India bans exports (FT)
• Goldman’s Asia Unit Lost Money First Time Since 2008 on Soured Stock Bets (Bloomberg)
• Meet Mark Spitznagel, Ron Paul's L.A. hedge-fund guy (SPCR)
• U.S., Israel Pull Closer on Iran (WSJ)
• IBM’s Watson Gets Wall Street Job After ‘Jeopardy’ Win (Bloomberg)
• US Senate OKs Bill Aimed at China Subsidies (Reuters)
• Czech Banks May Need More Funds in Crisis (Bloomberg)
• Banker Bonus Limits Sought by EU Lawmakers (Bloomberg)
• Volcker Rule Needs Extensive Revisions Amid Feedback, SEC’s Gallagher Says (Bloomberg)

Spain is next...

Swiss money manager and long term bear Marc Faber, aka "Dr Doom", says political risk in the Middle East has increased significantly with war between Iran and Israel “almost inevitable”, and precious metals and equities investments offer some safety. "Political risk was high six months ago and is higher now. I think sooner or later, the U.S. or Israel will strike Iran - it's almost inevitable," Faber, who publishes the widely read Gloom Boom and Doom Report, told Reuters on the sidelines of an investment conference. Brent crude traded near $123 per barrel in volatile trade on Tuesday on fears of a disruption in Iranian supplies. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showed no signs of backing away from possible military action against Iran following a Monday meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama. "Say war breaks out in the Middle East or anywhere else, (U.S. Federal Reserve chairman) Mr Bernanke will just print even more money -- they have no option...they haven't got the money to finance a war," said Faber. "You have to be in precious metals and equities ... most wars and most social unrest haven't destroyed corporations - they usually survive," he said. He said that Middle East markets had largely bottomed out, though regime changes from the Arab Spring revolutions were unlikely to be investor-friendly.

All you need to read.

In what was likely the most ominous news from last week (and a near certain top for the stock) we reported that now none other than the Israel Central Bank was going long shares of AAPL. While the implications for stocks in general are extensive and were previously discussed, it is worth noting that the Israel Monetary Authority now has a big MTM loss on its Apple investment (although as Greece and the ECB have taught us, a central bank can book a "profit" even when a given security is trading at an all time low, and completely irrelevant of what one's cost basis is). And where Israel is, it is quite certain that other central banks have boldly ventured as well. So how long until the Fed has to open an FX swap line with Tel Aviv to bailout Stanley Fischer in this latest of hare brained schemes to keep the Ponzi system going? And how long until it has to be extended to the nearly 250 hedge funds who are now also long the stock, with the universe of incremental buyers disappearing by the day? What is most stunning is that Apple dipped a modest 3% intraday... Which just happened to be the biggest decline since November 2010.

All you need to read.