Israel

Would You Support a War Against Iran If You Knew the True Facts?

The softer PMI reports have weighed on risk markets, which as a result saw equities trade lower throughout the session. In addition to that, market participants continued to fret over the latest Greek debt swap proposals, which according to the Greek CAC bill will give bond holders at least 10 days to decide on new bond terms following the public invitation, and the majority required to change bond terms is set at 2/3 of represented bond holders. Looking elsewhere, EUR/USD spot is flat, while GBP/USD is trading sharply lower after the latest BoE minutes revealed that BoE's Posen and Miles voted for GBP 75bln increase in APF. Going forward, the second half of the session sees the release of the latest Housing data from the US, as well as the USD 35bln 5y note auction by the US Treasury.

Crude oil spiked to nine-month high primarily on investors fear of potential conflict over the escalating tensions between the US, Europe, Israel, and Iran.  Right now, it seems Iran could be the one blinks first (war or peace).

As if the market needed another bizarro catalyst to ramp even higher courtesy of an even more pronounced drop in corporate earnings courtesy of soaring energy costs, that is just what it is about to get following news of further deterioration in the Nash equilibrium in Iran, where on one hand we learn that IAEA just pronounced Iran nuclear talks a failure (this is bad), and on the other Press TV reports that the Iran army just started a 4 day air defense exercise in a 190,000 square kilometer area in southern Iran (this is just as bad). The escalation "ball" is now in the Western court. And if Iraq is any indication, after IAEA talks "failure" (no matter how grossly manipulated by the media), the aftermath is usually always one and the same...

Let’s be honest, quite a few Americans love a good war, especially those Americans who have never had to bear witness to one first hand.  War is the ultimate tribally vicarious experience.  Anyone, even pudgy armchair generals with deep-seated feelings of personal inadequacy, can revel in the victories and actions of armies a half a world away as if they themselves stood on the front lines risking possible annihilation at the hands of dastardly cartoon-land “evil doers”.  They may have never done a single worthwhile thing in their lives, but at least they can bask in the perceived glory of their country’s military might.   This attitude of swollen ego through proxy is not limited to the “Right” side of the political spectrum as some might expect.  In fact, if the terrifyingly demented presidency of Barack Obama has proven anything so far, it is that elements of the “Left” are just as bloodthirsty as any NeoCon, and just as ready to blindly support the political supremacy of their “side” regardless of any broken promises, abandoned principles, or openly flaunted hypocrisies.  No matter how reasonable or irrefutable the arguments against a particular conflict are, there will ALWAYS be a certain percentage of the populace which ignores all logic and barrels forward to cheerlead violent actions which ultimately only benefit a select and elite few.

Between the Chinese 'surprise' RRR and the Iran export halt to UK and France (and escalating tensions), Oil prices are off to the races this evening. WTI front-month futures have just broken $105 (now up more than 10% in the last two weeks), the highest levels in over nine months and just 8% shy of the 5/2/11 post-recession peak just under $115. Brent (priced in EUR) remains off last week's intraday highs (as EUR strengthens) but still above the pre-recession peak but in USD it traded just shy of $121 - well above last week's peak. Of course, this will be heralded as a sign of demand pressure from a 'growing' global economy rather than the margin-compressing, implicit-taxation, consumer-spending-crushing supply constraint for Europe and the US that it will become in the not too distant future. As we post, The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus - and for those pinning their hopes on the Saudis coming to the rescue (and fill the Iranian output gap), perhaps the news that our Middle-East 'allies' cut both production and exports in December will stymie any euphoria.

To stir them up and start a war with Iran ...

It is time for the US administration to remind everyone that while every other piece of bad news may be priced into the markets in perpetuity, there is still geopolitics. Although that may also be priced in. Either way, the WSJ has just reported that "Federal agents on Friday arrested a man who they allege planned carry out a suicide bombing at the U.S. Capitol, part of a sting operation in which undercover agents posing as al Qaeda operatives provided fake explosives. The Federal Bureau of Investigation's Washington field office said the man was arrested "in the vicinity of the U.S. Capitol." It said the suspect never posed a danger to the public." Ah yes, the good old "threats are among us" gambit. And let's just go with the most trivial cliche possible. If nothing else, it sets the stage for next steps. As for what next steps may be, here is a hint, via Reuters: "Two Iranian naval ships have sailed through Egypt's Suez Canal into the Mediterranean, in a move likely to be keenly watched by Israel. "Two Iranian ships crossed through the Suez Canal (on Thursday) following permission from the Egyptian armed forces," a source in the canal authority said Friday. Two Iranian warships sailed along the strategic waterway on February 17 last year, in a move that Israel called a "provocation." Either way, Suez developments may be Israel's issue for the time being. We now apparently have our own suicide bombers to be 'very worried about.'

The drums of war are beating louder and louder ... What's really going on?

Previously we presented some alternative thoughts to the mainstream misperception of the Iranian "isolation" by some of its biggest oil trading partners. Unlike others, we simply believe that the gulf nation, together with the new axis of anti-USD (as confirmed once again earlier today) is simply preparing itself for a barter based economy, or alternatively, one with commoditized intermediates. However, this ignores the likelihood of geopolitical instability caused by intervening US and Israeli interest in the region. Below are some thoughts from Doug Casey of Casey Research on the likelihood of another full blown shooting war erupting in the Persian Gulf, as well as his thoughts on how one may prepare for such a contingency.

Must ... Not ... Think ...

While much of the focus has been on Paulson & Co., the hedge fund founded by billionaire John Paulson, cutting its stake in the SPDR Gold Trust by 15% in the fourth quarter, possibly of more importance is the fact that PIMCO, the Texas Teacher Retirement System and George Soros all increased their holdings of the biggest exchange-traded product backed by gold. Paulson cut his gold ETF bullion holdings by about 600 million dollars in Q4, a reduction that was likely driven by client redemption needs as he and his fund remain upbeat on gold – primarily due to inflation concerns.  Paulson’s reduction in SPDR was offset by other important buyers such as PIMCO, which oversees $1.36 trillion and is home to the world's biggest bond fund and significant institutional buying from the likes of the Texas Teacher Retirement System and billionaire investor George Soros. ‘Bond King’, Bill Gross recently wrote about gold as a “store of value” and PIMCO’s allocation to GLD may be ongoing as they seek to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation. Soros, who once suggested gold was or would be "the ultimate asset bubble," raised his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a gold-backed exchanged-traded fund, to 85,450 shares, up from 48,350 shares in the period. Soros, who had disclosed call and put options on the gold fund in the prior period, reported no such investments in the fourth quarter. Soros’ GLD position is worth a mere $13 million, however it suggests that he is not as bearish on gold as portrayed and that he sees further upside for gold.

While today's market session has been broadly calm for the time being, that has not prevented Oil from falling back to its old norm of being impacted by the merest rumor of geopolitical tensions, of which we have had quite a few of already, following car explosion attacks targeting Israel embassy officials in India and Georgia. While Iran has yet to make any announcement on these events, which oddly enough resulted in no deaths, Israel has already blamed Iran for everything. From Reuters: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel's  arch-foe Iran "stands behind" bombers who targeted Israeli embassy cars in India and Georgia on Monday. Netanyahu linked the incidents  to reports of foiled attacks in Thailand and Azerbaijan last month for  which, he said, Iran and its Lebanese guerrilla "proxy" Hezbollah were  responsible."Iran, which stands behind these attacks, is the  largest exporter of terror in the world," Netanyahu said, addressing his  Likud party faction in parliament." It appears that when it comes to car bomb assassination plots, Iran still has to learn from those which targeted its own nuclear scientist successfully a few weeks ago. Yet this latest escalation in attempted provocations is not unexpected: it comes on the heels of the announcement of a US Naval Official who said that "Iran is building up its forces in the Persian Gulf and has prepared speedboats loaded with explosives." Whether it actually has or has not is irrelevant: all that matters is that the US navy 'says so.'

Minxin Pei, the most original of current Sinologists, makes the point authoritarian/totalitarian regimes inherently prioritize requirements for protecting regime leaders over long-term national interest.

If the U.S. and Israel sponsor terrorism, then Jimmy Carter’s National Security Adviser was correct when he told the Senate in 2007: the war on terror is “a mythical historical narrative”.