Norway

As markets continue to yo-yo and commentators deliver mixed forecasts, investors are faced with some tough decisions and have a number of important questions that need answering. On a daily basis we are asked what’s happening with oil prices alongside questions on China’s slowdown, why global trade will collapse if Romney wins, why investors should get out of stocks, why the Eurozone is doomed, and why we need to get rid of fractional reserve lending. Answering these and more, Mike Shedlock's in-depth interview concludes: "The gold standard did one thing for sure. It limited trade imbalances. Once Nixon took the United States off the gold standard, the U.S. trade deficit soared (along with the exportation of manufacturing jobs). To fix the problems of the U.S. losing jobs to China, to South Korea, to India, and other places, we need to put a gold standard back in place, not enact tariffs."

At least superficially, they appear to be coming more and more often.

Just over a year after the tragic mass shooting in Norway which left 77 children dead, America has its own episode of senseless mass killing and violence: overnight, a mass shooting at a Aurora, CO movie theater during a Dark Knight screening has left at least 14 dead and 50 injured in one of America's most horrific mass execution-style events in recent history. As of right now, the FBI has said it does not believe the tragedy to be terrorism related.

There was yet another European Union summit at the end of June, which (like all the others) was little more than bluff. Read the official communiqué and you will discover that there were some fine words and intentions, but not a lot actually happened. The big news in this is the implication the ECB will, in time, be able to stand behind the Eurozone banks because it will accept responsibility for them. This is probably why the markets rallied on the announcement, but it turned out to be another dead cat lacking the elastic potential energy necessary to bounce. Meanwhile, Germany, meant to be the back-stop for this lunacy, is losing patience. It has become clear that the agreements that arose out of the June summit were not agreements at all. The questions arises:  How can the Eurozone stay together, and if not, how quickly is it likely to start disintegrating? And where does the exchange rate for the euro fit in all this?

• Looks like the troops won't be steamrolled: JPMorgan Blaming Marks On Traders Baffles Ex-Employees (Bloomberg)
• The Goldman "Huddle" goes to Blackrock - Surveys Give Big Investors an Early View From Analysts (NYT)
• At least housing has bottomed: London House Prices Plunge As Supply Rise Adds To Lull (Bloomberg)
• Christine Lagarde and Nicolas Sarkozy embroiled in new corruption inquiry (Telegraph)- at least that fraud they created: Others helped them create it.
• Heat Leaves Ranchers a Stark Option: Sell (NYT)
• Merkel Gives No Ground on Demands for Oversight in Debt Crisis (Bloomberg)
• The euro skeptics have the best lines again (FT)
• Wen Says China’s Economic Recovery yet to Show Momentum (Bloomberg)
• Europe’s Banks Face Tougher Demands (FT)
• Madrid Region To Sell 100 Office Buildings Amid Austerity (Bloomberg)
• China eases taxes for foreign companies (FT)

Nearly full employment in all the cited developed economies except the US shows that the deflationary environment of the recent months is only temporary. Deflation is rather an effect of the recent strong fall in commodity prices. No wonder that the Fed is still reluctant to ease conditions; they saw the opposite temporary commodity price movements last year. We do neither expect a global inflation nor a deflation scenario but a balance sheet recession in many countries but still an increase of wages and therefore a very slow global growth in both developed and developing countries and continuing disinflation (see chart of Ashraf Alaidi to the left). CPIs will look soon similar for all developed countries, with the consequence that the currencies of the most secure and effective countries (measured in terms of trade balance and current accounts) will appreciate. These are for us e.g. Japan, Switzerland, Singapore and partially Sweden and Norway. The overvalued currencies with weaker trade balances like the Kiwi and Aussie must depreciate.

The price of Brent crude oil has jumped rapidly back over $100 (above Friday's highs) on news of a complete shutdown of Norway's oil production after labor talks failed. Coupled with more hopes and dreams of the so-far ineffectual Chinese monetary policy easing, it seems that all the bullish lower-oil-prices-as-a-tax-cut arguments become entirely reflexive as every time we see oil prices drop on global growth questions, so the central bank puts provide just the ammo to remove that benefit as they BTFD in every correlated risk asset - and Oil seems the 'cheapest' of those in the last few weeks.

A preview of the key events in the coming week (which will see more Central Banks jumping on the loose bandwagon and ease, because well, that is the only ammo the academic econ Ph.D's who run the world have left) courtesy of Goldman Sachs whose Jan Hatzius is once again calling for GDP targetting, as he did back in 2011, just so Bill Dudley can at least let him have his $750 million MBS LSAP. But more on that tomorrow.

After two days of solid gains, European equities continue the upward trend and are seen higher at the North American crossover, with the Basic Materials sector leading the way, followed by financials. The moves in equities follow overnight reports from Chinese press, once again calling for the PBOC to slash their RRR, as well as expectations that this Thursday both the ECB and the BoE will conduct monetary easing, possibly boosting future commodity demand. In the fixed income markets, the European 2s/30s curve continues to see bear-steepening following last night’s announcement from the Dutch Central Bank that has changed Dutch insurers’ Solvency II interest rate curve; modifying the maturities in which the firms must hold assets towards the longer-end. Today also saw official confirmation from the Irish debt agency that they are to return to capital markets with T-bill issuance on July 5th, their first return to the market since 2010. Investor reaction to this news is evident in the shorter-end of the Irish yield curve, where the 2-yr bond yield spread against their German counterpart is firmly indicating the risk of returning to the market; currently wider by around 20bps.

Let’s face it – Europe is a cool place. In addition to being cool, Europe is also without a doubt the most creative and imaginative place outside of Middle Earth. Its ability to  consistently baffle itself certainly warrants valuable space in IceCap’s global market outlooks. Financially speaking, Europe is broke - it no longer works. Figuratively speaking, Europe has entered its golden age. Unworkable solutions dreamt by an unworkable political system is consuming all real and electronic ink known to mankind. A day doesn’t go bye where local newspapers are not bursting with news on Greece, Spain and their Euro-cousins. This sudden love-in with Europe has surely removed America from the global spotlight. But, be patient as this will change later during the year. To demonstrate the absurdity of this place called Europe, one has to understand nothing else except the legalities behind Europe’s rules for selling cabbage to each other.

Given Friday’s announcements and subsequent rally, the relative dearth of weekend snippets and analyses seems a little surprising.

Despite the July 4th mid-week holiday, the coming week will be packed with major economic updates. Goldman Sachs summarizes what to look for in the next 5 days.

The sea of red just got even redder as Japan, Korea, Norway, South Africa and Taiwan all dropped below 50, i.e., into contraction territory. From Bank of America: "Overnight and early this morning, a bevy of global manufacturing PMI reports were released. This provides us with an early reading on the state of manufacturing. Out of the 24 countries reporting so far, 10 saw month-over-month improvements in their manufacturing PMIs, while fourteen countries saw their PMIs worsen in June. Seventeen of the manufacturing PMIs were below the 50 breakeven level that divides expansion (+50) from contraction (+50). A majority of the below-50 PMI indices are located in the Euro area. The ongoing  sovereign debt and banking crisis continues to weigh on the region’s economic activity and sentiment. The Euro area slowdown is beginning to impact the rest of the world."

• The Real Victor in Brussels Was Merkel (FT)
• German Dominance in Doubt after Summit Defeat (Spiegel)
• Euro defeat for Merkel? Only time will tell (Reuters)
• The Twilight Zone has nothing on Europe: European Banks Bolster Capital With Shunned Bonds (Bloomberg)
• Krugman is baaaaaack and demands even more debt: Europe’s Great Illusion (NYT)
• Republicans See Way to Repeal Obamacare (FT)
• Hollande Ready to Tackle Public Finances (FT)
• China’s Manufacturing Growth Weakens as New Orders Drop (Bloomberg)
• Protesters March in Hong Kong as Leung Vows to Fight Poverty (Bloomberg)

• Funny WSJ headline: Berlin Blinks on Shared Debt  (WSJ)... sure: if XO hits 1000 bps tomorrow, Eurobonds in 2 days
• Barclays $451 Million Libor Fine Paves Way for Competitors (Bloomberg)
• Fed officials differ on whether more easing needed (Reuters)
• China Local Government Finances Are Unsustainable, Auditor Says (Bloomberg)
• Just because the NYT is not enough, Krugman has now metastasized to the FT: A manifesto for economic sense (FT)
• Merkel dubs quick bond solutions ‘eyewash’ (FT)
• Yuan trade settlements encouraged in SAR (China Daily)
• Katrina Comeback Makes New Orleans Fastest-Growing City (Bloomberg)
• European Leaders Seek to Overcome Divisions at Summit (Bloomberg)