Housing Market

Apart from the slight uptick from the bottom in the housing market, the rest of the economy is just not robust enough to produce earning`s growth.

• Senate-Passed Deal Means Higher Tax on 77% of Households (BBG)
• Bipartisan House Backs Tax Deal Vote as Next Fight Looms (BBG)
• Fresh stand-off looms after US cliff deal (FT)
• Congress Deal Averting Tax Increase Curbs Risk to States (BBG)
• How Colombian drug traffickers used HSBC to launder money (Reuters)
• Danes Face New Reality in Struggle to End Crisis, PM Says (BBG)
• Ban on demanding Facebook passwords among new 2013 state laws (Reuters)
• Oil Climbs to Three-Month High as U.S. House Passes Budget Bill (BBG)
• Cameron seeks bold steps from G8 leaders (FT)
• China to outstrip Europe car production (FT)
• North Korea Picks Stronger Economy, South Ties as Top 2013 Tasks (BBG)

Time is running out. The cliff negotiations have devolved into two unpalatable options: (1) extend just the middle income tax cuts and extended unemployment benefits and allow about two-thirds of the cliff to happen, or (2) go over the cliff in the entirety. In BofAML's view, given the short time frame and legislative hurdles, the latter appears much more likely. Stock market vigilantes have replaced bond vigilantes as the potential good, bad, and ugly scenarios are devoured flashing red headline by flashing red headline. They, like us, believe that going over the cliff is not a benign “slope” as some suggest. Rather, it accelerates the already-building damage to the economy and markets. The latest evidence is the plunge in consumer confidence. Indeed, this could mark the beginning of the rotation in the uncertainty shock from businesses to consumers. Going over the cliff has many secondary, largely ignored, negative impacts, including tax changes that could damage the housing recovery, as well as negatively impact education and alternative energy, among many others.

My thoughts on what is headed our way

Sometimes, taking a break from the mainstream view of the world is healthy for our sheep-like tendencies to follow the herd. To wit, Robert Shiller can't understand the enthusiasm for the long-term recovery outlook of the housing market. With rentals rising and home-ownership dwindling, Shiller, in this Bloomberg TV clip, questions the positivity noting that the outlook is 'fuzzy' at best; and in fact in the short-term is negative as MoM things have deteriorated modestly (though seasonally). He note that the focus has been on multi-family residences and "if you are sitting in a suburban single-family house - what is your outlook? Highly uncertain - It's Risky!" And in one of the most prescient comments of recent weeks, Shiller admits something that many others should try: "[the outlook] could be up; but I don't see how anyone knows?" adding that another plausible outlook for the next five years is that "housing stays right where it is now," adding that Zillow's 1.3% annual real growth expectation could be too optimistic.

When Tim Geithner announced an hour ago that the US debt ceiling will officially be "risen above" on December 31, he stated that there are approximately two months in which the Treasury can take emergency measures to delay the actual debt ceiling breach, a moment in time which we believe will take place some time in March. Upon further reflection, with the automatic spending cuts and tax hikes that will take place on January 1, the irony is that the debt ceiling extension may last materially longer due to a substantial reduction in the US budget deficit, potentially pushing the final threshold to as late April or even May which means the political theater is going to last for even longer than we expected - something which both parties now appear set to capitalize on as much as possible. So the question now is what are the options before Tim Geithner and what are the "emergency measures" the Treasury take to delay the inevitable moment when one of three things happens: i) the US hikes its ceiling, ii) the US begins living within its means, iii) the US defaults on its debt. Since the third, and certainly second are impossible, and since the debt ceiling theater is something we all lived through as recently as 2011, here is the article we penned in January 2011, when that long ago debt ceiling of a mere $14.3 trillion was about to be breached, and whose ultimate rise required a 20% market plunge together with an S&P downgrade of the then pristine US AAA rating (an event which Tim Geithner had said shortly prior there is no risk of ever occuring), answering precisely this question.

The market grudgingly comes back to work today, overdosed on caffeine and other alkaloid derivatives, a day when traditionally everyone calls in sick, as absolutely nothing has been resolved over the Fiscal Cliff with just 3 real trading sessions left in the year. And the likelihood that no real trading will take place is very high as both the House and Obama are still out of town, although the latter will take a late night AF-1 trip back to D.C. to rekindle rumors of an imminent 11th hour deal. It is increasingly looking as though the E-bay market, when all real trading take places  at 3:59:59 pm, will manifest itself at the calendar level too, with either a market surge or plunge in what appears to be the last trading day of the year. One can only hope if the news is negative that it has a hard limit like the ES limit down plunge last Thursday.

After theatrically soaring to a 5 year high in November, when the UMich confidence final print rose above the 82 level, the final UMich consumer confidence number just tumbled by a whopping 10 point down to 72.9, well below the expected 75.0 print, and below the preliminary read of 74.5. This was the biggest percentage slide since February 2007. So much for the great pick up in confidence, driven by the foreclosure stuffed subsidized "recovering" housing market. Perhaps it's time to get a seasonally adjusted confidence number?

Ever wondered whether the Fed actually has/had a plan? Gluskin-Sheff's David Rosenberg attempts to overlay some intelligence to the last seven years to get a grasp for what the venerable institution is actually up to. To wit, the seven stages of Federal Reserve jiggery-pokery... Will the seven become twelve as the addicts take over the asylum? Seven-point plan or seven-year dud?

For those curious why many people are scratching their heads how the market cap of Bank of America has nearly doubled in the past year, here it is: "Bank of America Corp. has amassed $64 billion of mortgages that are at least six months delinquent and have yet to enter foreclosure, more than twice the amount held by its four largest competitors combined." $64 billion is more than half the market cap of Bank of America as of this moment. 

• New Calls for Gun Limits (WSJ)
• Funerals begin for Newtown victims as schools confront tragedy (Reuters)
• Introducing The Stock Trader of the Future (WSJ)
• Feds knocking on 72 Cummings Ave door any minute now? SAC E-Mails Show Steve Cohen Consulted on Key Dell Trade (BBG)
• China Signals Tolerance of Slower Growth After Meeting (BBG)
• Huge mandate for Japan's LDP may be less than meets the eye (Reuters)
• UBS Said to Face $1.6 Billion Libor Penalty This Week (BBG) - shareholders pay, and nobody goest to jail
• Treasury Plan Would Cut Rates on Some Mortgages in Bonds (BBG)
• Egypt opposition calls for protests against basic law (Reuters)
• Euro Crisis Will Linger, Merkel Tells Summit (WSJ)
• Economic slowdown throughout euro zone a worry for ECB: Liikanen (Reuters)

At a time in the year when the market should be at a standstill, and when all trading should be over, the tension in the S&P is unprecedented, driven by two main factors: the ongoing Fiscall Cliff confrontation, which now appears set to not be resolved by Christmas, and very likely to persist into the new year, and what happens with hotel AAPLfornia, as suddenly it has become a liability to show LPs any holdings of the fruit in the year end statement. The two events combined will likely see furious market volatility persist well through the year end, and since volumes will further die down, we may well see massive stock moves on odd lots. And while AAPL is trading under $500 for the first time since February following last night's Citi downgrade, the confusion over the Fiscal Cliff persists, with The Hill first reporting that Boehner is willing to cave on the debt ceiling extension,  even as Boehner himself subsequently tweeted that "Any increase in the debt limit will require a greater amount in spending cuts and reforms." So back to square one, with a red herring proposal that Boehner can say we offered to the president and the president turned down. Japan continues to attract a lot of attention with the ADHD market desperate to hope that the coming of Abe 2.0 will be much better than that of 1.0, when in one year he achieved nothing and then resigned due to diarrhea. Judging by the action in the USDJPY, we may be a few short hours away from closing the gap that sent the pair to 84.30 first thing, and proceeding to unwind the near record JPY commitment of traders short position as the JPY realizes this time will not be different. Quiet calendar in the US, with the Empire State Manufacturing Index expected to print at -0.5 at 8:30 am Eastern, TIC data to show China's ongoing TSY boycott at 9 am, and a hawkish Jeff "Mutiny on the Eccles" Lacker speech at 1 pm.

Denial doesn't change reality. It only cripples our response to reality. Psychologists and behavioral economists have found that we deceive ourselves (conceal the truth) to serve our own interests. Perhaps this is why the mainstream ignores the Id Monsters in the shadows: shadow banking, shadow housing inventory and shadow liabilities.

Everyone interested in real estate is asking the same question: Is the bottom in, or is this just another "green shoots" recovery that will soon wilt? Let’s start by reviewing the fundamental forces currently affecting real estate valuations. ZIRP has created a "crowded trade" in low-risk investments with attractive yields such as corporate bonds, dividend stocks, and real estate, which is being fueled by a self-reinforcing perception that "the bottom is in." The question now is will these forces continue pushing prices higher? If these forces deteriorate or lose their effectiveness, then the “green shoots” of investor interest may wither as the U.S. economy joins Europe and Japan by re-entering recession.