Housing Market

Iceland went after the people who caused the crisis — the bankers who created and sold the junk products — and tried to shield the general population. But what Iceland did is not just emotionally satisfying. Iceland is recovering, while the rest of the Western world — which bailed out the bankers and left the general population to pay for the bankers’ excess — is not. Iceland’s approach is very much akin to what I have been advocating — write down the unsustainable debt, liquidate the junk corporations and banks that failed, disincentivise the behaviour that caused the crisis, and provide help to the ordinary individuals in the real economy (as opposed to phoney “stimulus” cash to campaign donors and big finance). And Iceland has snapped out of its depression. The rest of the West, where banks continue to behave exactly as they did prior to the crisis, not so much.

The composite index has now regained its pre-financial crisis levels of 55.4.  However, more important than the current level is the trend of the data since the peak in 2010.  I have noted the previous peaks of data and while the index is volatile from one month to the next the declining trend of the data should be concerning to those paying attention.  As we have stated in the past "economic change occurs at the margin" so the focus on a single data point can be very misleading. With estimates for Q4 GDP being ratcheted down sharply to roughly 1% from Q3's 2.7% annualized rate - it is very likely that the latest print in the ISM Composite index is likely the peak that we will see for several months. Doing more with less has now been the mantra of businesses since the financial crisis, and despite the $30+ trillion dollars thrown at the economy since that time, there has been little movement by businesses to become more aggressive.

Recessionary media dynamics 101: "When in doubt, baffle with BS." As expected, Monday's collapse in the manufacturing ISM would need to be offset somewhere, and that somewhere was today's Services ISM which is where the rest of the world decided to dump the "good news."  Sure enough ISM just reported a headline number of 54.7, better than both the expected 53.5 and last month's 54.2. This was driven by a better than expected Business Activity/Production index which miraculously soared by 5.8 to 61.2, while New Orders increased to 58.1 from 55.3, and not to mention Imports which had the biggest jump in the month of +6.0 to 55.5 - nothing like reducing your GDP as an indicator of optimism. Where things get very ugly however, was the dump in Employment from 54.9 to 50.3, the lowest since July, and the collapse in prices from 65.5 to 57.0. So much for jobs and margins. But at least it wasn't "Sandy's fault." Overall: nothing to write home about especially in light of all the other recently adverse data.

• LA port workers to return Wednesday (AP)
• Iran says extracts data from U.S. spy drone (Reuters)
• Obama to stress need to raise debt limit "without drama" (Reuters)
• Big Lots Chief Probed by SEC (WSJ)
• NATO missiles to be sent to Turkey, Syria clashes rage (Reuters)
• GOP Deficit Plan Irks Conservatives (WSJ)
• Japan Can End Deflation in Months, Shirakawa Professor Says (BBG) ... almost as good as Bernanke ending inflation in 15 minutes.
• Osborne Prepares to Breach Fiscal Rules Amid U.K. Growth Slump (BBG)
• Global Banking Under Siege as Regulators Guard National Interest (BBG)
• Freeport plans return to energy (FT)
• Serbian NATO envoy jumps to death at Brussels airport (Reuters)
• Tide Turns After a Flood of Chinese Listings (WSJ)
• Australian economy loses steam (FT)
• Euro Crisis Feeds Corruption as Greece Slides in Rankings (BBG)

The 2007 puncturing of housing market prices and the 2008 financial market swoon are the precedents to two much larger and much more dangerous bubbles. These more pernicious threats are the dollar bubble ("printing money") and the government debt bubble ("borrowing money"). While both are expanding at a sickening pace, in the near term they deceptively make things seem much better than they are. But, like all bubbles, they are unsustainable. The Fed is well-aware of this dire probability, but finds itself increasingly stuck to avoid it. The Fed's main strategic consists completely of "hope". It's backup strategy? "Panic" and thus the need to focus on preservation of purchasing power, and positioning one's financial assets safely before the aftershock arrives.

This objective one-stop-shop report concisely summarizes the important macro events over the past week.

As of late there has been a flood of commentary written about the housing recovery pointing to the bottom in housing and how the revival in housing will drive economic growth in the years ahead. It is true that the revival in the housing market is a positive thing and is certainly something that everyone wants.  However, the hype surrounding the nascent recovery to date may be a bit premature. Much of the current buying in the housing market has come from speculators and investors turning housing into rentals.  This, however, has a finite life and rising home prices will speed up its inevitable end as rental profitability is reduced.  Furthermore, the majority of home building has come in multifamily units, versus single family homes, and that segment has been growing faster than underlying demand. It is important to understand that housing will recover - eventually.  However, the reality of that recovery could be far different than what the current media and analysts predict. The point here is that while the housing market has recovered - the media should be asking "Is that all the recovery there is?"

• Egypt protests continue in crisis over Mursi powers (Reuters)
• Greece hires Deutsche, Morgan Stanley to run Greek voluntary debt buy back, sources say (Kathimerini)
• Executives' Good Luck in Trading Own Stock (WSJ)
• Hollande Presents Mittal Nationalization Among Site Options (Bloomberg)
• Eurozone states face losses on Greek debt (FT)
• Spain's rescued banks to shrink, slash jobs (Reuters)
• EU Approves Spanish Banks' Restructuring Plans (WSJ)
• At SAC, Portfolio Managers Are Treated Like Stocks (BBG)
• China considers easing family planning rules (Reuters)
• European Court to Rule Over ECB’s Secret Greek File (BusinessWeek)
• And another top tick indicator: Asia Funds Buy London Offices in Bet Volatility Is Past (Bloomberg)
• Harvard Doctor Turns Felon After Lure of Insider Trading (BBG)
• Zucker Is Lead Candidate to Head CNN (WSJ) - it's not true until CNN misreports it
• Iran "will press on with enrichment:" nuclear chief (Reuters)

Many economists are suggesting that the second estimate of Q3 GDP, which showed an initial estimate of 2.0% annualized growth, will be revised sharply upward to 2.8%. The problem is that the surge in demand isn't materializing at the manufacturing level.  The month-over-month data has begun to show signs of deterioration as of late which doesn't support the idea of a sharp rebound in economic activity in recent months. The headwinds to economic growth are gaining strength as the tailwinds from stimulus related support programs fade. This has been witnessed not only in the manufacturing reports, such as the CFNAI and Dallas Fed Region surveys where forward expectations were sharply reduced, but also in many of the corporate earnings and guidance's this quarter.

This objective one-stop-shop report concisely summarizes the important macro events over the past week.

Granular details seeping from every crack in France’s picturesque veneer

Who owes what to whom?

The week's most anticipated speech (given Obama's absence from DC) is here. Bernanke's Economic Club of New York extravaganza - where he has previously hinted at new or further policy - is upon us. Sure enough, it's a smorgasbord of we'll do whatever-it-takes (but won't bailout Congress) easing-to-infinity, housing's recovering but we want moar, simply re-iterating his comments from last week...

• *BERNANKE SAYS FISCAL CLIFF WOULD POSE `SUBSTANTIAL THREAT'
• *BERNANKE SAYS CONGRESS, WHITE HOUSE NEED TO AVERT FISCAL CLIFF
• *BERNANKE SAYS FED TO ENSURE RECOVERY IS SECURE BEFORE RATE RISE
• *BERNANKE SAYS HOUSING RECOVERY `LIKELY TO REMAIN MODERATE'
• *BERNANKE SAYS CRISIS REDUCED ECONOMY'S POTENTIAL GROWTH RATE

However, as we have noted previously, once you've gone QE-Eternity, you never go back... and we would this is the 3rd time in a row that someone from the Fed has spoken and stocks have sold off.

After hours shots fired, with Moody's hitting the long overdue one notch gong on France:

• MOODY'S DOWNGRADES FRANCE'S GOVT BOND RATING TO Aa1 FROM Aaa
  
• FRANCE MAINTAINS NEGATIVE OUTLOOK BY MOODY'S

Euro tumbling. In other news, UK: AAA/Aaa; France: AA+/Aa1... Let the flame wars begin

The yellow metal soared 4.9% in euros in one week from the 11 week low set November 2nd and has since fallen 1.3%.  The rebound from the November dip means prices should recover to reach the all-time euro high set last month, before rising to the point-and-figure target at 1,395 euros, said the bank’s research.  Point and figure charts estimate trends in prices without showing time. Gold may then reach a Fibonacci level of about 1,421, the 61.8% extension of the May-to-October rally, projected from the November low, Commerzbank wrote in its report on November 13th which was picked up by Bloomberg. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices climb or drop by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. “What we are seeing is a correction lower, nothing more,” Axel Rudolph, a technical analyst at Commerzbank in London, said by e-mail Nov. 16, referring to the drop since November 9th.  Rudolph remains bullish as long as prices hold above the November low at about 1,303 euros.  Technical analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.