Bank of America

Bank of America
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Scottish "No" Vote Pushes S&P To New Record High; Cable, Yen Roundtrip On Quad-Witching Alibaba Day





So much for any Scottish referendum vote "surprise": the people came, they voted, and they decided to stay in the 307-year-old union by a far wider margin, some 55% to 45%, than most polls had forecast, even as 3.6 million votes, a record 85% turnout, expressed their opinion. The gloating began shortly thereafter, first and foremost by David Cameron who said "There can be no disputes, no re-runs, we have heard the settled will of the Scottish people." Queen Elizabeth II, who is at her Scottish castle in Balmoral, is expected to make a rare comment on Friday. But while a No vote was where the smart betting money was ahead of the vote anyway, and is thus hardly a surprise, the most curious thing overnight was the complete roundtrip of cable, which was bought on the rumor and then sold off on the news, roundtripping by nearly 200 pips.

 
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With A Market Cap Of $168 Billion, Alibaba Is Bigger Than...





With a market capitalization of $168 billion after its pricing at $68/share, the upper end of the range which makes this the largest US IPO in history and would be the largest in the world if the greenshoe is exercised, Alibaba, while not a member of the S&P 500 (at least not immediately), will have a market cap that is larger than the following index members:

 
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China's Housing Slump Accelerates, Worst In Over Three Years





While the rest of the world is focused on what any given "developed" (or Chinese) central bank will do to continue the relentless liquidity-driven rally to new record highs, China has bigger problems as it continues to scramble in its attempts to figure out how to halt the slow motion housing crash that has now firmly gripped the nation. So firmly, that according to overnight data from the National Bureau of Statistics, monthly house prices dropped in some 68 of 70 tracked cities, the most in over three years, since January 2011 when the government changed the way it compiles the data.

 
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BofA Stopped Out Of EURUSD Short: Stolper 2.0 Strikes Again





There is no point in lamenting the disappearance of the gospel of that god among FX gods, Goldmans' Tom Stolper, whose fades generated anyone who did the opposite of his recos nearly 15,000 pips in profits over the years. It is time to move on... and start doing the same to his peer at Bank of America, the firm's head chartist, MacNeill Curry, aka Stolper 2.0, who incidentally was just stopped out of his EURUSD short.

 
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Frontrunning: September 17





  • -0.07%: Germany Secures Record Low Funding Cost at Bond Auction (WSJ)
  • Pentagon Sees Possible Role for U.S. Ground Forces Against Islamic State Militants (WSJ)
  • China Joins ECB in Adding Stimulus as Fed Scales Back (BBG)
  • Stealthy or Normal? Analysts Diverge on PBOC’s Action (BBG)
  • Sony Forecasts Massive $2B Loss as Smartphones Lag (AP)
  • Islamic State campaign tests Obama's commitment to Mideast allies (Reuters)
  • Brent Crude Rebounds as Libya’s Sharara Oilfield Shut (BBG)
  • Market calm over Scottish vote at odds with disaster warnings (Reuters)
 
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Subprime Is Back With A Vengeance





This is where our economies are perverted. It’s the final excesses and steps of a broke society. It’s madness to the power of infinity. The only thing that’s certain is that in the end, your money will all be gone. That’s how Mario Draghi ‘saves’ the EU for a few more weeks, and that’s how the big boys of finance squeeze more from what little you have left (which is already much less than you think). A world headed for nowhere.

 
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Ukraine Currency Crashes To Record Low As IMF Blasts "Gross Abuses"





Despite celebrations of de-escalations and truce in US equity markets (by asset-gathering commission-takers), the situation continues to go from bad to worse in the nation almost forgotten now that ISIS is stealing American headlines. The Hryvnia plunged 7.5% this morning - its biggest single-day drop on record - following the release of a scathing IMF letter and devaluation warnings from BofA. The IMF blasted Ukraine's "premature emission of extra money," and demanded it "immediately halt these gross abuses," as BofA warns of risk of "10-20% devaluation" in the next year is high given reserves are at a "critical level."

 
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Key Events In The Coming Week: Fed Votes, Scotland Votes, And More





US Industrial Production and the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing survey are the two main releases for the US. In Europe, the euro area trade balance will be the notable print. Beyond today, US PPI, German ZEW and UK CPI are the main economic reports tomorrow. Wednesday will see the release of BOE’s meeting minutes, the US CPI, and the Euro area inflation report. On Thursday, President Obama will host Poroshenko and on the data front we have Philly Fed, initial claims, and building permits to watch out for, but the biggest market moving event will surely be the Scottish independence referendum. German PPI will be the key release on what will otherwise be a relatively quiet Friday.

 
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Frontrunning: September 11





  • Obama orders U.S. airstrikes in Syria against Islamic State (Reuters)
  • Obama Relying on Mideast Allies to Counter Islamic State (BBG)
  • Scotland Nationalists Claim U.K. Oil in 40-Year Campaign (BBG)
  • Scottish Polls Embolden Catalans Pushing Rajoy for Vote (BBG)
  • Royal Bank of Scotland: RBS will leave Scotland if voters back independence (Guardian)
  • Most Hedge-Fund Managers Are Overpaid, Unigestion Says (BBG)
  • China Inflation Softens to Four-Month Low (WSJ)
  • Munger Hosts Groupies, Mocks Wall Street, Praises Buffett (BBG)
 
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Key Events In The Coming Week: iPhone 6 Release And Other Less Relevant Happenings





One of the more amusing comments overnight came from Bank of America, which now predicts that China's export growth will be boosted by iPhone 6 by 1% per month through year-end. Whether or not this is accurate is irrelevant, but we are happy that unlike before, BofA has finally figured out that iPhone sales are positive for Chinese GDP, not US, which was the case with the release of the iPhone 4 and 5, when clueless strategists all came out boosting their US (!) GDP forecasts on the iPhone release. We note this because the long-awaited release of Apple's new iPhone will certainly grab some attention tomorrow. According to a BofA poll last week and of the 124 respondents surveyed, 66% of those have noted that they are going to buy the new iPhone and of those planning to buy 75% of those will be replacing their iPhone 5/5s.

 
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Frontrunning: September 8





  • Scotland split jitters send sterling to 10-month low (Reuters)
  • S&P 500 Beating World Most Since 1969 Doesn’t Spark Flows (BBG)
  • Happy ending guaranteed: Vietnam building deterrent against China in disputed seas with submarines (Reuters)
  • China Posts Record Surplus as Exports-Imports Diverge (Bloomberg)
  • Russia, U.S. to hold talks on 1987 arms accord (Reuters)
  • Halcon’s Wilson Drills More Debt Than Oil in Shale Bet (BBG)
  • Deadly Disappointment Awaits at Ebola Clinics Due to Lack of Space (WSJ)
  • Latinos furious at Obama on immigration delay, vow more pressure (Reuters)
  • Japan GDP Shrinks at Fastest Pace in More Than Five Years (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: September 4





  • Global stocks bounce on sign ECB could launch ABS program (Reuters)
  • Putin unveils Ukraine ceasefire plan, France halts warship (Reuters)
  • Poroshenko Flummoxes Investors With About-Face on Truce (BBG)
  • No Free Lunch for Companies as IRS Weighs Meal Tax Rules (BBG)
  • Turkey Struggles to Halt Islamic State 'Jihadist Highway' (WSJ)
  • Lego Becomes World's Largest Toy Maker on Movie Success (WSJ)
  • U.N. says $600 million needed to tackle Ebola as deaths top 1,900 (Reuters)
  • Goldman Sachs Named 'Stabilization Agent' for Alibaba Stock Offering (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: September 3





  • Confusion as Ukraine and Russia announce progress towards peace (Reuters)... but not for stock buying algos, they know everything
  • Obama Expresses Skepticism About Possible Ukraine Cease-Fire (WSJ)
  • Fighters Unwind in Russia Where Beer Doesn’t Spell Death (BBG)
  • Despite dangers, U.S. journalist Sotloff was determined to record Arab Spring's human toll (Reuters)
  • New Beheading Video Spurs Calls for Global Response (BBG)
  • Christie’s Spending on Outside Lawyers Passes $50 Million (BBG)
  • IEX to Apply for Exchange Status (WSJ)
  • UK says not ruling out airstrikes against Islamic State, says hostage video genuine (Reuters)
 
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