Copper

The NYSE volume today was abysmal. According to BBG data, this was the lowest volume day in over a decade and even compared to other July 1st (or holiday weeks) this was the lowest volume print. Average trade size for the S&P 500 e-mini futures was also very small - almost the lowest of the year as low volumes and the narrowest high-to-low range for ES in over two months still managed to hold on to small gains for the day. In the face of this relative exuberance, Treasury yields dumped down 5 to 6 bps across the board remaining the most cognitively dissonant of risk assets on the day. HYG underperformed (as HY and IG credit indices were very quiet and reracked along with ES for most of the day). HYG did end Friday notably rich to intrinsics so this makes some sense but is unusual for a positive close in ES (as we note that 16 of the 24 times in the last year that HYG has closed red and SPY closed green, SPY has gone on to lose more in the next few days). EURUSD lost quite a bit of ground (again seemingly ignored by US equities) as USD rise 0.35% from Friday's close (albeit with AUD rallying modestly along with JPY). Oil retraced almst 50% of its spike gains from Friday but then pushed back up over $83.50 into the close and while Silver and Gold flatlined ending practically unchanged, Copper also lost a little ground (2x beta of USD) on growth slowing from China's data we assume.As with pretty much any rally, financials, energy and tech were the higher-beta winners all gathered perfectly correlated around 0.6% gains on the day (but we note that JPM and Citi remain negative from Friday's opening print). VIX ended the day below 17% (down a measly 0.25 vols) - its lowest close in two months - and while implied correlation managed to make modest gains (to around 65%) risk assets in general were only moderately correlated as equities outshone CONTEXT on the day.

Given Friday’s announcements and subsequent rally, the relative dearth of weekend snippets and analyses seems a little surprising.

Understands who can… The Brussels nightly drama yielded first tweeted “results”, then none, then yes. Then some bickering, Southern drama, then truce. Then they still were not done haggling.

So To Clarify: Dropped seniority and overseeing of ESM (unratified) and EFSF rescue funds (which will not be boosted in size) to fund not just Italy and Spain but Ireland too...conditioned on agreeing to EU banking oversight

UPDATE:

• *MONTI SAYS EURO LEADERS HAVE NO PLAN FOR BOOSTING BAILOUT FUNDS
• *ITALY HAS NO INTENTION TO `APPLY FOR THIS,' MONTI SAYS
• *IRELAND'S KENNY SAYS WHAT WAS IMPOSSIBLE IS NOW POSSIBLE

Early morning (drunk-dialing/texting) headlines from the EU Summit that there has been some short-term measures approved in terms of the removal of the seniority preference for ESM/EFSF rescue fund recaps of Italian and Spanish banks (though no details of the levels of dilution, cram-downs, or amounts have been discussed). The market, being as thin as it can be, is ripping higher on this realistically 'not much' news - though clearly someone 'blinked' a little. Headlines via Bloomberg:

• *EURO LEADERS RENOUNCE SENIORITY ON SPAIN LOANS
• *EURO LEADERS AGREE TO OPEN FUNDS WITHOUT AUSTERITY PROGRAMS
• *BANKS CAN RECAPPED DIRECTLY WITH AID FUNDS, VAN ROMPUY SAYS

But it's not all free-money and unicorn tears:

• *MERKEL SAYS EU LEADERS TO CONTINUE WORK ON LONG-TERM MEASURES
• *JUNCKER SAYS WOULD HAVE `HOPED FOR MORE' FROM EU SUMMIT
• *EU BANK SUPERVISION IS CONDITION FOR ESM LOANS TO BANKS: RUTTE

Another interestingly odd day. One of the lowest (non-holiday) volume days of the year but a big pick up in average trade size as the S&P 500 e-mini futures shrugged off Treasury strength, USD strength, and Gold's somnambulism seemingly led by an energy sector focused on only one thing - the bounce in WTI. Copper also drifted higher even as the USD leaked modestly higher (as assume the two got some hopium-infusion from China RRR cut rumors early on and sustained momentum as liquidity disappeared in many risk markets. Credit once again was a split-decision with the CDS markets underperforming (and notably thin from our discussions) while HYG (high-yield bonds) decided to lead the way (also on one of its lowest volume days of the year). Treasuries remain in a tight range over the last few days, as EURUSD limps lower, but VIX had a high vol day with its move higher in the face or rising stock prices (up to 20% vol at one point) providing some ammo for the late day surge in stocks as it was sold hard to close -0.25 vols only around 19.5% (as implied correlation broke 71% before plunging into the close).

Slow Day. S&P 500 e-mini futures, stumbled early on by some 'reality' from Merkel, recovered to the magical 1315 level that has seemed so important in the last few weeks. Broadly speaking risk-drivers were either weaker or went sideways in narrow ranges as Energy, Financials, and Discretionary high beta pulled stocks higher. From yesterday's equity day-session close, oil is unch, copper down modestly, Gold down more and Silver down the most as the USD limped very quietly lower on the day (interestingly divergent as AUD and GBP strength was enough to balance the EUR weakness). Treasuries went sideways to modestly higher in yields by 2-3bps. Stocks outperformed (once again) from around the European close - pulling notably away higher from CONTEXT-based broad risk perspective but, just as with the last few days, financial weakness into the close led the broad indices into a decent nose-dive back towards VWAP right into and beyond the bell (on heavy volume and larger average trade size). It's getting old. VIX fell less than 0.5 vols and surged up to nearly 20% at the close (as stocks dumped giving up almost half its day-session gains) as total day volume was weak, average trade size low, and intraday range the lowest in 2 months. HY and HYG underperformed stocks (we suspect as the LT convergence reduces the push into HYG) and we are seeing IG-HY decompression pick up a little.

S&P 500 e-mini futures are over 20pts below their day-session closing highs on Friday as energy and financials lead the plunge. The major financials appear to have finally woken up to the hypothecated reality of huge collateral calls on the back of their downgrades, the lack of a simple debt mutualization burden-sharing pile-on to Germany, and now Italian banks asking for a bailout from the ECB; with Citi and BofA  down almost 7% from pre-downgrades and JPM/MS/GS all down around 5%. VIX has extended its after-hours spike in futures from Friday and trades back above 21% (up almost 3 vols from day-session close). With oil tumbling once again and Treasury yields giving all of Friday's rise back, risk assets in general are leading stocks lower and as we opened this morning, ES snapped down to converge with CONTEXT. Gold and Silver are sideways as Copper and Oil fall while USD pushes higher still on EUR weakness below 1.25 (and only JPY stronger among the majors as carry gets unwound in a hurry). Not pretty. Spanish and Italian bank stocks (and credit) are being crushed/halted and Spanish 10Y yields are back over 6.50% (and spreads over 500bps).

In what may come as a shocking surprise to exactly nobody, the next great discovery as more and more layers of the global ponzi onion are exposed, is that China was, in fact, lying about everything. Yes, we know, stunning.

Early weakness in Treasuries (rising yields) and an acceleration in WTI prices back over $80 provided the 'contextual' support for an almost perfect 38.2% retracement bounce in S&P 500 e-mini futures today. Key support/resistance at the 1330 level was restested on dismal volume with a late-day surge but average trade size and activity picked up rather notably into the bell and ES cracked back almost 7 points to a 'mysterious' VWAP close. HYG outperformed today (as did VXX - and implicitly VIX which closed around 18% dropping 2 vols) but it appeared medium-term that equities were reverting to HYG's less sanguine view of the last month rather than HYG really leading. Financials were strong performers but all of those gains were at the open with XLF (and JPM which was unable to break VWAP in the afternoon) unch from 930ET and MS/GS/BAC/C all down 0.7% to 1.6% from the open (with a late day give back). Gold, Silver, and Copper are pretty much unchanged from the 4pmET close levels of yesterday while WTI is up over 2% closing back above $80. The long-bond underperformed +7bps on the day but outperformed on the week (as the 7Y and 10Y underperformed on the week) and provided the support for equity's levitation but this seemed as much QE-hope unwind as any implicit weakness. FX markets were dead with slight strength in AUD and EUR and weakness in JPY as USD basically trod water +0.8% on the week.

HSBC's Flash Manufacturing PMI printed at 48.1 - its lowest in 7 months as contraction continues in the world's growth engine - as inventories rise at a faster rate and new export orders plunged at the fastest rate since March 2009. Risk markets were already leaking lower before this but extended losses with ES down 6pts from the close (and over 11 from the day's highs). Treasuries are bleeding a little lower in yield but the real action is an exaggerated slide in WTI (which is rapidly heading towards a sub-$80 handle) and EURUSD which has dropped back to the day's lows around 1.2660. Copper, Gold, and Silver are also sliding lower as AUD weakens (as we suggested last night) back to 1.0150.

Gold and Treasuries tipped their hands a little pre-FOMC and risk assets plunged immediately on the release's lack of an explicit and immediate print-fest gratification. But between short-squeezes (and stating the obvious news) from Europe and a dangling-chad of hope for future QE as the economy was marked down to a 'must-do-better' grade by Bernanke, we ripped higher in most risk-sensitive assets to test the day's highs. We then plunged back down to the lows of the day as the press-conference went on and left most wanting more kool-aid than Ben was willing to deliver. However, with 10 minutes to go in the day, EURUSD staged an impressive squeeze higher of shorts and that dragged stocks up to VWAP and beyong for a green close. What a shit-show - excuse our French. Gold had outperformed for much of the sell-off and recovery and Treasury yields, the USD, and stocks had stayed in sync with one another - until the last few minutes when stocks and the USD went vertical and overshot gold. Commodities were generally decimated on the day (with WTI -2.7% on the week, Silver -2%, Gold -1.2%, and Copper unch) while the USD is modestly lower -0.23% on the week ending the day practically unch having given all its gains back in the last few mins. Stocks trading very technically, stalling the sell-off at Friday's closing level, pivoting on volume around VWAP and Monday's opening highs, and closing at basically yesterday's day-session close. Despite stocks lack of excitement (though intraday bipolarism), VIX managed to drop notably - down 1.2 vols to close at almost 17.00% (its lowest in 7 weeks). Treasuries ended the day mixed with the long-end lower in yield (not participating in the selloff that dragged the rest of the curve higher by 4-5bps). EURUSD squeezed back up over 1.27 by the close and HYG outperformed (ending notably rich to stocks and its own fair-value).

UPDATE: ES at day's highs - alone in its exuberance relative to risk assets.

We watched, we dipped, and then we ripped. Disappointment at no new QE drove Silver down first, then Oil and then the rest of the risk basket tumbled notably. EURUSD dumped 60pips, ES dropped 7-8pts to Monday's close, Treasury Yields dropped 6-7bps, Commodities (Gold, Silver, Oil, Copper) all fell 1-2% (with Silver worst). But then we ripped as Van Rompuy and Merkel started chatting about some progress in Europe. This pulled EURUSD up to unch, Gold and Silver retraced half of their spike down, stocks recovered all of their drop and reached up to VWAP (rather conveniently) where selling volume re-appeared. Notably, only Treasuries remained near their spike levels. As we post, the recovery spike back up in risk assets is now fading. Now get your popcorn ready for Bernanke's presser. Finally, the issue with the European stick save, where Gollum mentioned Eurobond lite again, is that it is merely a regurgitation of news from Sunday, which Germany has already said Nein to: In The Case Of The World Vs Merkel, The Broke Prosecution Proposes Eurobonds Lite.

S&P 500 e-mini futures managed to get back above their 50DMA, fill the gap back to the 5/4 ugly-NFP print levels, and retrace 61.8% of the recent swing high-to-low ahead of tomorrow's hope-laden FOMC-print-fest. As we noted here, credit markets do not agree that QE is coming anytime soon and today's Gold deterioration suggests expectations for anything more than a twist extension are overblown (which we suspect would be a huge disappointment to a market only 4% off its highs and a VIX with a 17 handle earlier in the day. As the afternoon wore on and the incredible reporting falsehoods were denied, equity markets (and EUR) reverted lower (led by financials) pulling back to VWAP (and VIX pushed back rapidly to 18.5 - ending the day higher in vol (despite a 10pt jump in the S&P). Low volume and falling average trade size suggests this was far from the start of a new trend in stocks and the push higher (and steeper) in TSY yields to Monday's opening highs seems more like QE hope fading than growth hope. Silver just underperformed Gold on the day (both leaking lower) as Oil and Copper rallied (leaving WTI in the green for the week) as USD weakened and round-tripped to Monday's opening lows (with AUD now 1.3% stronger on the week). Investment grade credit remains a considerable underperformer relative to the high beta equity and high yield markets but 'agrees' with Gold and Treasuries in its view of no LSAP tomorrow- and the surge in implied correlation into the close suggests macro overlays as opposed to a market with any conviction.

Echo. In a slightly less aggressive replay of last Sunday/Monday's reaction to news from Europe, equity futures (and FX markets) opened gap-up and faded significantly to end modestly green after touching the 50DMA briefly. A 20pt drop from its open last night in S&P 500 e-mini futures on the less-than-Armageddon-but-more-of-the-same-disaster scenario played out, which then retraced around 50% of its drop during the day session. Equities diverged strongly from a notably decompressing IG and HY credit market (and significant weakness in HYG - the high-yield bond ETF). Treasuries and FX markets also remain disconnected (implying weaker levels in US stocks) as broadly speaking risk-assets did not feel the same love as stocks today. It would appear that, given the heavy volatility action, drop in Short-term vol (VIX), and recent divergence from stocks, that there was heavy vol selling today which supported a higher equity market in a virtuous manner until later in the afternoon when VIX and SPX had recoupled and stocks then limped lower to VWAP. Treasuries ended the day relatively unchanged from Friday's close after opening 6bps higher in yield, rallying 10bps from there as equities and FX plunged, and recovering higher in yield as the US day session progressed. EURUSD held under 1.26, diverging lower from equity strength from just before the US open leaving the USD higher by 0.45% from Friday's close - even as AUD strengthened notably. Commodities generally ignored USD strength with Copper, Gold, and Silver practically unch from Friday's close while WTI dropped over 1% to around $83 by the close. Financials underperformed as a sector (as Tech and Discretionary gained) but the majors were the worst hit having given up all their gains from Friday's MS lost 3.4%, Citi -2.6% and BofA & GS -2% with JPM close behind.

It seems our warning of yesterday's perfect algo-driven retracement in Treasuries and stocks was spot on. The dead cat bounced just too perfectly for our liking and despite an early attempt to ramp markets on Dimon's testimony (which worked at first and then faded all the way into the close), broad risk assets led equities lower with a horrible close. It appears the 10Y auction was today's catalyst and it is clear from the charts that TSYs indeed turned lower (in yield) before equities woke up. The 1315 level (in September S&P 500 futures) was a stumbling point all day as decent sized blocks were dumped each time we moved above it until the market finally gave in and fell. WTI gave all its Dimon-spike gains back. Gold, Silver, and Copper wriggled along sideways (also giving back all the Dimon-Spike gains) but while the USD retraced higher into the close (-0.3% on the week now), Gold and Silver remain up around 1.5% on the week (with gold the outperformer on the day). VIX pushed dramatically higher to 24.5% (+2.3vols) and as stocks tumbled so equity correlation to risk-assets picked up (with notably stocks finding support as they converged with CONTEXT near the close). A last minute pop into the day-session close took us back to Thursday's close of last week but IG credit continues to point to lower risk appetites.