Copper

As already noted, one piece of good news out of Europe - German GDP (ignore the huge ZEW miss) - was enough to make everyone forget the Italian bank downgrade, and that Greece is one election away from unwinding the EMU. Yet perhaps it is good to have a modest bounce from a market, which however not even Goldman says is oversold: after all the central planners need a day or two to regroup, and consider what currency to crush next to buy the global nominal stock market a few months of breathing room.

The only good news spin this morning was that the Greek, pardon Spanish contagion, has not reached Italy, after the boot-shaped country sold €5.25 in bonds this morning at rates that did not indicate a meltdown just yet. It sold its three-year benchmark at an average 3.91 percent yield, the highest since January but below market levels of around 4 percent at the time of the auction. It also sold three lines due in 2020, 2022 and 2025 which it has stopped issuing on a regular basis. And this was the good news. The bad news was the not only has the Spanish contagion reached, well, Spain, but that everything else is now coming unglued, as confirmed first and foremost by the US 10 Year which just hit a new 2012 low of 1.777%. Spain also is getting hammered with CDS hitting a record wide of 526 bps overnight, and its 10 Year hitting 6.26% after the country sold 364 and 518-Day Bills at rates much higher rates than on April 17 (2.985% vs 2.623%, and 3.302% vs 3.11%). But the highlight of the day was the Banco de Espana release of the Spanish bank borrowings from the ECB, which to nobody's surprise soared by €36 billion in one month to €263.5 billion, more than doubling in 2012 from the €119 billion at December 31.

BTFD/STFR Deja-Vu - check. Credit underperforming - check. USD higher - check. Treasury Yields lower - check. Ask an equity guy how today was and you'll likely get a shrug of the shoulders (unless he owns JPM or CHK); ask a credit guy (if you can pull him away from the bar) and you'll get a very different response. Investment grade credit markets were crushed today on the back of pressure on JPM's hedge and unwind expectations - this was across pretty much all the indices that are out there (with over 90 names in the IG9 index also in the on-the-run IG18 index - the numbers simply reflect the series or portfolio that is being referred to). This was the worst week in IG credit of the year and lifted spreads to 4-month wides and at the same time (until late in the day) high-yield and high-beta credit did not follow suit (very unusual and very indicative of the dramatic positioning in the IG indices that JPM has basically blown up). Treasury yields have now fallen for the 8th week in a row - the longest streak since 1998! Away from pure equity and credit, risk assets remained wildly unimpressed by the incredible 8 sigma rip-fest this morning in stocks as commodities all close lower from yesterday day-session closes - though bounced to end around their European open levels on the day (except for underperforming Copper). The USD leaked higher all day with a small interruption thanks to CAD strength on their jobs data this morning (AUD, EUR, and GBP all close at the week's lows). A horrible end to an ugly week as S&P 500 e-mini futures ended very close to their 50DMA on above average volume though low average trade size (which we suspect was dominated by algos in the rip this morning). The losses JPM faces from today's index shifts are already large and with risk managers everywhere asking their traders if they hold any of that 'trash', we suspect more selling and unwinds are to come; and while JPM got all the press, Morgan Stanley is now down year-to-date.

Goldman maintains “constructive” 6-month forecast, says case for higher prices remains in place. Goldman stands by its forecast for a rally in gold this year, saying that the precious metal will advance to $1,840/oz over six months as the U.S. central bank embarks on a third round of stimulus in June. The precious metal remains the “currency of last resort,” according to analysts led by Jeffrey Currie in a report released yesterday. Goldman’s gold forecast implies a 15% return in 6 months. “In early 2009, we suggested that gold had become the currency of last resort, overtaking the U.S. dollar’s status due the rising risk of sovereign default and debasement concerns,” Currie wrote in the report. Even as the U.S. currency advanced and gold fell on the European crisis in recent months, “it is too early for the dollar to reclaim this status,” they wrote. “The case for higher gold prices remains in place,” the analysts wrote. “U.S. economic and employment data has now disappointed for several weeks, European election results point to further stress in the euro area, while anecdotal data suggests that physical gold demand remains resilient.”

Ask yourself the following. For the technologies which allowed for the increased rate of extraction of coal in the 19th century, or,  which now allow for the increased rate of extraction of natural gas from shale in the 21st century: did those technologies create the resources or merely extract them as they already existed? The answer seems rather obvious, doesn’t it? I mean, I want to be sympathetic to the view that technology creates resources, in the sense that technology makes previous unrecognized or unrecoverable resources available. But a threshold I cannot cross, however, is that idea that there are always a new resources waiting to be discovered, if we can only create a technology to obtain them.

Which brings us back to mining for minerals. On asteroids.

A month ago we ended up with the hilarious situation where the US was actively considering releasing petroleum from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve even as China was demonstratively and concurrently adding to its strategic inventory. Now, as the developed world is seeing day after day of gold hammering on amusing flights of fancy that central banks won't be forced to engage in more and ever bigger rounds of monetary dilution, and where the seller apparently has no regard for getting a "good" price, but merely seeks to crash the bid stack slams various PM prices, we see the same inversion with gold. Because as Bloomberg reports, "Mainland China's gold imports from Hong Kong surged more than sixfold in the first quarter, to 156 metric tons, adding to signs that the country may displace India as the world's largest consumer of the precious metal on an annual basis." And the punchline: "The purchases through Hong Kong may signal that the mainland is accumulating reserves, London-based brokerage Sharps Pixley Ltd. said in February. The nation last made its reserves known more than two years ago, stating them at 1,054 tons." Yep ladies and gents: the PBOC is very grateful that it can add hundreds of tons of gold to its reserve holdings in a stealthy operation which it will announce only after its conclusion, at which point, like true 13F chasing lemmings, retail will send gold soaring. But in the meantime, dear hedge funds worried about your margin calls and 1 month performance reports, please proceed calmly along with the lemming herd, and keep pushing gold lower and cheaper for our new Chinese overlords, and for everyone else who, without P&L timing constraints, takes delight in such brief arbitrage opportunities.

Three important things occurred today: 1) US equities converged down to high-yield credit's less sanguine view of the world; 2) US equities converged to US Treasuries hope-less view of the world; and 3) Gold was the leading indicator for where risk assets should be today - as its stability was the only rock upon which to anchor expectations of intervention once again. The equity market fulfilled every technical analyst's wet dream today with a low volume gap-fill - which notably left today's VWAP at almost exactly the closing price from Friday (i.e. gave bigger players a chance to get out without losing their short - which was exemplified by the sell-off into the close on much bigger than average trade size). Never have we heard just whimsical exuberance at the market closing practically unchanged (ES +2pts) but critically risk markets in general did nothing but revert ahead of tomorrow's real action as the UK (and that means the European credit market) comes back from a long-weekend. Broadly speaking - US equities outperformed risk-assets modestly until the late-day give back dragged them back to reality but overall - IG credit underperformed, HYG outperformed (inflows dominant), and HY and S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) stayed in sync.

In 2006, Michael Pettis (one of the best known on-the-ground academic-and-practitioner experts on China) started making a number of predictions based on what he thought was the necessary and logical development of China’s growth model. Some of these predictions seemed fairly outlandish, especially to China analysts – Chinese and foreign – who had very little knowledge of economic history or other developing countries, but many of them so far have turned out quite well. As more and more analysts are beginning to understand the constraints of the Chinese growth model he thought it might be useful to list some of these predictions to get a sense of what might be still to come. Hold on to your hard-landing hats.

WTI Crude dropped its most in almost five months today, losing around 2.5%, beginning its descent after Draghi somewhat disappointed a hungry markets this morning (after better-than-expected claims data). Silver (which recoupled with Gold today) and Copper also started their drops at that point and extended the losses after the ISM Services miss. Gold leaked lower (though not as much as the rest of the commodity complex) even as the USD (which had been following its typical path of strengthening through the EU day session) dropped as an expectant EUR popped on no rate cuts. Stocks started their slide at the same time but broad risk-assets were in general leading equities lower (more carry FX and commodities than Treasuries today). We had a little bounce in stocks into the European close (up to VWAP) but that quickly fell back, lost today's lows, then broke yesterday's lows heading for one-week lows and the S&P 500's 50DMA. AAPL lost its 50DMA and closed there for the first time since earnings. After some noise around the macro data (and Draghi) this morning, Treasuries were extremely flat - trading in a very narrow range all afternoon - as did FX in general but AUD kept leaking lower (down 2% on the week now) and JPY stable on the week. Equities and credit re-converged today and late in the afternoon as ES (the S&P 500 e-mini futures) caught up to the downside of broad risk assets and stabilized in the late day ahead of tomorrow's noisy and meaningless NFP print. ES volume was average as it traded closest to its 50DMA in a week (and dropped the most in 8 days today closing near its lows of the day) and VIX, while off its highs of the day, closed above 17.5% - its highest close in over a week. While stocks are short-term in line with risk-assets, over the medium-term they remain notably expensive (especially to Treasuries since last week).

Two days ago, the Manufcaturing ISM soared, trouncing expectations, in a very perplexing print because as the very next day we learned via ADP that manufacturing jobs dropped by 5,000 in April. Today, however, things are back to normal as the indicator that tracks the far greater component of US GDP: the Services ISM, just printed at 53.5, missing expectations of 55.3 wildly, and down from the previous print of 56.0. This was the biggest miss in 12 months, and the lowest print since December; it also printed below the lowest Wall Street forecast. That this should not be surprising to anyone we hope is a given: weak ADP but strong Claims (and now a drop in the employment Index); soaring Manufacturing but plunging Services, China expanding but China contracting, and so on: when we said that "Baffle them with Bullshit" is an official policy we were not joking. Remember: when in doubt ask: what would Schrodinger's cat do?

For the third day in a row, the USD was bid from the Europe open to its close and drifted lower in the US afternoon. Today's limp lower in the USD this afternoon (with AUD and CAD strength while JPY was flat) provided, along with some leaking higher in Treasury yields, support for a modest risk-on levitation in stocks as the S&P 500 tried and failed to get back to unch after falling below yesterday's lows (well below the pre-ISM levels) early in the day. Credit, equity, and Treasury markets were remarkably in sync today - which is unusual given recent dislocations and correlation across asset classes in general picked up. Gold (and the rest of the commodity complex) traded pretty much in sync with the USD all day, leaving Silver down 2% on the week and WTI back under $106 but still +0.4% on the week - but Gold -0.5% (in sync with USD's 0.5% gain this week) was the best performer of a bad bunch today. VIX generally traded in sync with stocks aside from an odd gap lower right at the close. Treasuries ended the day 2-3bps lower in yield (a few bps off their best levels though) leaving the entire complex modestly lower in yield for week (aside from 2Y which is +0.4bps). Broad risk assets ebbed a little into the close even as stocks bounced off VWAP for one last push but volume leaked away as we rallied (as normal).

When even Pisani is questioning the fundamental-less QE3-addicted rally, it is perhaps self-evident that volumes were lagging today and stocks gave up most of their gains to end fractionally higher in the S&P 500 e-mini futures. Stocks peaked at the open of the US day-session after an overnight ramp that started in the depths of the overnight session (3amET) as auctions and data became so bad that traders adjusted their odds of a central-banker injection which seemed to spur wholesale buying of gold, stocks, selling of the USD (but also selling of US Treasuries - which did not fit with the QE meme). Gold continued its debasement rally after the US day-session as stocks sold back off as GDP composition weakness became clear. As we pushed into the European close, stocks rallied back to catch up with Gold's performance on the day and then sagged for a quiet low volume afternoon that saw the ES drop back below 1400, below its opening levels as Gold held above $1660. Treasuries limped around in another narrow range day ending a fraction lower in yield but off their best levels of overnight (where 10Y got down to 1.88%). Whether it is discounting Fed easing or EUR repatriation, USD weakness was broad today but JPY and AUD strength was relatively equal providing little carry-driven strength to support stocks. VIX warbled above and below 16% but ended back above as the term structure of vol continues to leak flatter. A solidly green week for stocks, accompanied by falling volumes and average trade size has seen the nominal value of the S&P 500 almost overtake Silver for best-performing asset YTD (after Silver's post LTRO2 collapse). Copper outperformed Gold and Oil on the week - though they managed to more than double the implied move from USD's weakness (-0.5% on the week). The lack of financials in today's push along with only modest energy, industrials, and materials follow through suggests investors are losing hope rather quickly with the QE chatter and the slide into the close did nothing to stay anxiety.

As if anyone needed another example of who is really running the show, the S&P 500 cash index (an index that tracks the weighted performance of 500 underlying and supposedly fundamentally idiosyncratic companies) closed at 1399.99 after breaching the almighty 1400 earlier in the afternoon. The Dow Industrials failed to close in the green for the month and Dow Transports notably diverged bearishly today as the afternoon's ramp-fest in equities - and notably nothing else - gave hope to hope-less. Between a weak/strong (you decide) jobless claims data, a dismal Kansas Fed (and Chicago NAI negative print) juxtaposed with what was 'supposedly' strong pending home sales (contracts not signings note), it seemed some early QE-hope spillover from Bernanke yesterday got us going (with gold outperforming) early on but as the US day-session began, stocks took off from their lows, stabilized into the European close, then re-accelerated - running stops to the early April non-farm-payroll print levels. Stocks reconnected with Gold's early run but this did not have the feel of a QE trade at all - the USD was flat all afternoon, volume was dismal, gold actually fell as stocks took off this afternoon, and Treasury yields rose and fell in a narrow range. In other words, there was not a concerted cross-asset class QE hope here -  this was all stocks on their own - as they disconnected from our cross-capital structure and broad risk asset models as the afternoon wore on. Notably SPY implied vol is very close to crossing below its 20-day realized vol for the first time in almost five-months as VIX tested under 16% but couldn't maintain it into the close. The USD was lower close-to-close with AUD strength and JPY weakness most obvious as the US day session began with EUR relatively stable. Treasuries broadly remain lower in yield on the week with 7Y outperforming and 30Y basically unch. Copper was the best performing commodity today followed by Silver (though Ag remains down on the week) but Gold and Oil also benefited from USD's leaking. Discretionary, Energy, and Financials sectors outperformed on the day in stocks (with Materials weak - another non-QE sign) but it was the equity market's standalone bullishness that suggests this was more technical than a hope- or fundamental-based regime shift.

As we said yesterday, traders could have just slept through the entire day, ignored headlines about mad cows, auctions of European bonds maturing in a few weeks, speculation of Europe's alleged falling out favor with austerity which is very much irrelevant as all that matters is what German taxpayers/voters say, and the SEC's latest laughable scapegoating attempts, and just woken to the 4:30 pm announcement of iPhone sales in China. As expected, the entire world is now reacting. Here is Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid with the global response to the world's ongoing fascination with aspirational cell phones.

• China’s Biggest Banks Are Squeezed for Capital (NYT)
• Greeks detect hypocrisy as Dutch coalition stumbles (Reuters)
• Hollande Blames Europe’s Austerity Plan for Le Pen’s Rise (Bloomberg)
• In a Change, Mexico Reins In Its Oil Monopoly (NYT)
• China Tire Demand Slows as Economy Decelerates, Bridgestone Says (Bloomberg)
• Social Security’s financial forecast gets darker; Medicare’s outlook unchanged (WaPo)
• Fed’s 17 Rate Forecasts May Confuse More Than Clarify (Bloomberg)
• Senate to vote on array of Postal Service overhaul proposals (WaPo)
• Weidmann Says Bundesbank Is Preserving Euro Stability (Bloomberg)