European Union

Having told banks and investors "don't panic" in September, amid spiking interbank lending rates and surging default/devaluation risks, it appears the massive shortage of dollars that we warned about in December has washed tsunami-like ashore in oil-producing Nigeria. Following the Central bank's decision this week to halt dollar sales to non-bank FX market operators, black market exchange rates spiked to 282/USD (vs 199 official) and CDS spiked to record highs implying drastic devaluations loom.

• Oil slips toward $30, traders bet on more falls (Reuters)
• Oil Plunge Sparks Bankruptcy Concerns (WSJ)
• RBS cries 'sell everything' as deflationary crisis nears (Telegraph)
• World stocks drop but Europe shrugs off oil slide, China money market surge (Reuters)
• Canadian Stocks Fall in Longest Slump Since 2002 as Oil Slides (BBG)
• "Murderous" Yuan Rate Jolts Hong Kong as Top Currency Hub (BBG)

The man who ran into a police station in northern Paris wearing a fake explosive vest, waving a meat cleaver, and shouting "Allahu Akbar" on the Charlie Hebdo anniversary once lived in a German refugee center and may have been involved in the New Year's Eve "sex mob" attacks. Walid Salihi used at least seven aliases while roaming around Europe committing what police say was a string of petty crimes including, but probably not limited to: "touching women's behinds at the disco," strangling a roommate, attacking a "passerby," and beating up a homeless man. 

In April the Dutch people will vote on the European-Ukraine association treaty.  In an interview with the NRC, a Dutch leading newspaper, Juncker warned the Dutch voters a “NO” will lead to a big continental crisis. “Russia and anti European movements will profit from a Dutch No, the Dutch has to vote yes for reasons not related to the treaty, the Dutch should act like an European strategist” according to Mr Juncker.

"I am not in the habit of replying to silly comments on Poland made by foreign politicians. Such words, said by a German politician, cause the worst of connotations among Poles. Also in me. I'm a grandson of a Polish officer, who during World War II fought in the underground National Army with 'German supervision.' I came to a sad conclusion that it is easier for you to talk about fictitious threats to media freedom in other countries than to condemn censorship in your homeland." - Polish justice minister Zibgniew Ziobro

While previously there was some ambiguity with regard to who actually perpetrated the attacks which allegedly unfolded in Cologne on New Year's Eve, authorities are now sure that "most" of those involved were "freshly traveled asylum seekers." From Die Welt: "Primarily it was the most Arab perpetrators to sexual offenses or, to put it from their point of view to their sexual amusement. A group of men circling a female victim, closes it and takes on the woman."

Fico said Thursday his government sees what he calls a "clear link" between the waves of refugees and the Paris attacks and the sexual assaults and robberies during the New Year's Eve festivities in Germany. He says: "We don't want what happened in Germany to happen here."  Fico says "the idea of multicultural Europe has failed" and that "the migrants cannot be integrated, it's simply impossible."

"These people that we welcomed just three months ago with teddy bears and water bottles ... started shooting at the cathedral dome and started shooting at police. Well seasoned police officers then confessed to me that they never saw something like this in their entire lives."

Iceland refused to be blackmailed. Iceland refused to take on the extra debt (and debt slavery) that came with the blackmail. Iceland refused to touch its social programs. Iceland has the strongest economy in the Western world.

EU countries join the UK, the U.S., Canada, Australia and New Zealand in having plans for bail-ins in the event of banks and other large financial institutions getting into difficulty.

"The Saudis are preparing for Iran’s return," said Mohamed Sadegh Memarian, who recently retired as the head of petroleum market analysis at Iran’s oil ministry, as they sharply cut the prices they charge for crude oil in Europe (to the biggest discount since Feb 2009). The move that will likely undercut Iran happens as sectarian tensions escalate between the rival Middle Eastern nations.

"The United States equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance."

• China stocks tank, triggers circuit breaker (Reuters)
• Stocks Slump Across Europe and Asia Following Shanghai's 7% Crash (BBG)
• China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Rout Triggers Circuit Breaker (BBG)
• Iran says Riyadh thrives on tension after relations cut (Reuters)
• Saudis and Bahrain Face Off With Iran in Worst Clash Since 1980s (BBG)
• Syrian rebel group backs Saudi move to cut ties with Iran (Reuters)

The Central Bank of Portugal conveniently released their results between Christmas and New Year, when the trading desks in Europe are virtually empty...

For those wondering what comes to mind for the average Chinese web surfer with regard to nations in Europe, we present the following map from Foreign Policy who “plotted the most common Chinese-language Baidu query for each European nation.” Highlights include "likes to fight" for Russia, "why doesn't it annex Portugal" for Spain, and "beautiful women" for Ukraine.