Bank of America

We would suffer too many subdural hematomas if we were to comment on this most recent outbreak of the "idiot meteorologist" syndrome by Bank of America below.

• China premier warns on economic slowdown as data fans stimulus talk (Reuters)
• Li says China defaults ‘unavoidable’ (FT)
• Russia Said to Ready for Iran-Style Sanctions in Worst Case (BBG)
• Rescue the tapes from the Bank of England’s dustbins  (FT)
• Obama Warns Putin of Cost to Russia for Annexing Ukraine (BBG)
• The TVIX is back: Credit Suisse VIX Note That Ran Amok in 2012 Back on Top (BBG)
• U.S. Risks National Blackout From Small-Scale Attack (WSJ)
• U.S. Investigators Suspect Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours (WSJ)
• Malaysia says no evidence missing plane flew hours after losing contact (Reuters)
• Missed Alarms and 40 Million Stolen Credit Card Numbers: How Target Blew It (BBG)
• Death Toll in NYC Building Blast Rises to Six; Search Continues (BBG)

Since Wall Street has been explicitly fighting the Fed (remember: the main reason there is no volume is because nobody is selling) Wall Street has once again lost, and despite its appeals, the time to pay the piper has come. Said payment will be taken out of bank Q1 earnings which as everyone knows, will continue the declining trend seen in recent years (so much for that whole Net Interest Margin fable), but to learn just how bad, we go to the FT which reports that fixed income groups across Wall Street "are set for their worst start to the year since before the financial crisis, with revenue declines of up to 25%." The punchline: "Analysts now expect Goldman Sachs to record its weakest first quarter since 2005 and JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America are forecast to see their lowest revenues since they bought Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch, respectively, in 2008."

While the world is terrified about what China - where corporate bond defaults are now permitted - may be about to unleash on the world, most are all too happy to remain in a state of delightful ignorance. We decided to take a peek behind the scenes.

• Malaysia Says Stolen Passport User Had No Links to Terror Groups (BBG)
• Malaysia military tracked missing plane to west coast (Reuters)
• Freescale loss in Malaysia tragedy leads to travel policy questions (Reuters)
• Top German body calls for QE blitz to avert deflation trap in Europe (Telegraph)
• Firms Suffer 23% Drop in Asia Fees Amid Search for Cash (BBG)
• Putin Dismisses U.S. Proposal on Ukraine (WSJ)
• Lenovo says China strike an IBM matter, but it won't cut wages (Reuters)
• Congress to Investigate GM Recall (WSJ)
• New hedge funds face life or death battle for funding (FT)
• Muni Bond Costs Hit Investors in Wallet (WSJ)
• BOJ keeps stimulus in place, cuts view on exports in warning sign (Reuters)
• ECB Homes In on Risky Assets as Inspectors Fan Out Across Europe  (BBG)
• Snowden: "The Constitution was violated" (Reuters)

In the last few years we have discussed the huge real estate bubble in China: "Real estate bubbles never end with soft landings. A bubble is inflated by nothing firmer than expectations. The moment people cease to believe that house prices will rise forever, they will notice what a terrible long term investment real estate has become and flee the market, and the market will crash." Amen! As they say, it is better to be wrong, wrong, wrong and then right than the other way around! In case you continue to be a skeptic, here are a few observations...

South Korea stands out as a buying opportunity amid the indiscriminate emerging markets sell-off.

Today's consensus estimate for the non-farm payroll is for a 149K increase broken down as follows among some select banks:

• Bank of America 115K
• Deutsche Bank 120K
• Goldman Sachs 125K
• Citigroup 135K

Why is the expectation so low? Why cold weather of course - the same cold weather that supposedly impacted December and January data. Then again, one wonders just what is the seasonal adjustment factor for if not to adjust for the, gasp, seasons. So when one puts the February actual number in the context of its average adjustment over the past decade, what does one get? Simple - a boost of 1.5 million "jobs" which exsit nowhere in the real world but in some Arima-X-13 spreadsheet.

UPDATE: It's happened - China has suffered its first domestic corporate bond default as Chaori fails to meet interest payments on schedule and rather more surprisingly failed to receive a last-minute mysterious or otherwise bailout...

*CITIC BANK WON'T HELP CHAORI MAKE INTEREST PAYMENT: 21ST HERALD

Ever since the specter of the first real domestic default on a Chinese corporate bond hovered over the markets, the Chinese credit markets have been leaking lower. The last 3 days have seen the biggest drop in Chinese credit markets in almost 4 months. That situation, wistfully occurring half way around the world while US equity markets press on to ever more exuberant (and ignorant) heights, meant at least 3 other Chinese firms pulled their bond issues today and, as Reuters reports, has "triggered widespread upheaval in the bond market." Banks are awash with liquidity (as indicated by low repo/SHIBOR rates) but clearly unwilling to lend and external investors are now running scared.

• Spot the inaccuracies: Stocks rise on Ukraine diplomacy, ECB easing speculation (Reuters)
• Bank of England Extends Record-Low Rates Into a Sixth Year (BBG)
• China's Chaori Solar poised for landmark bond default (Reuters), explained here previously
• EU leaders meet in Brussels to address Ukraine crisis (FT)
• Nine-month-old baby may have been cured of HIV, U.S. scientists say (Reuters)
• China Raises Defense Spending 12.2% for 2014 (WSJ)
• China Stock Index Rises as Developers Jump on Policy Speculation (BBG)
• VTB Cancels New York Forum as U.S. Relations Sour (BBG)
• IBM workers strike in China over terms of Lenovo takeover (FT)
• College Board Redesigns SAT Exam Making Essay Portion Optional (BBG)

While everyone was focusing on the threat of tumbling debt dominoes in China's shadow banking sector, a new threat has re-emerged: regular, plain vanilla corporate bankruptcies, in the country with the $12 trillion corporate bond market (these are official numbers - the unofficial, and accurate, one is certainly far higher). And while anywhere else in the world this would be a non-event, in China, where corporate - as well as shadow banking - bankruptcies are taboo, a default would immediately reprice the entire bond market lower and have adverse follow through consequences to all other financial products. This explains is why in the past two months, China was forced to bail out not one but two Trusts with exposure to the coal industry as we reported previously in great detail. However, the Chinese Default Protection Team will have its hands full as soon as Friday, March 7, which is when the interest on a bond issued by Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology a Chinese maker of solar cells, falls due. That payment, as of this moment, will not be made, following an announcement made late on Tuesday that it will not be able to repay the CNY89.8 million interest on a CNY1 billion bond issued on March 7th 2012.

Even as the Fed laments that inflation as measured by either the hedonically adjusted CPI, or the PCE deflator measure (which on any given month is whatever a seasonal adjustment excel model says it is), is persistently below its long-term target of 2%, one component of the broader CPI basket has quietly continued risen to new multi-year highs. That would be the so-called owners’ equivalent rent (OER), which is the biggest component of the CPI, and measures imputed costs of renting one’s own home: it is currently the highest it has been since 2008. But what does this mean for broad inflation? Read on to find out why it is precisely the soaring rent, courtesy of the Fed's latest housing bubble, that means inflation will remain subdued for years to come.

UPDATE:*CHINA HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI AT 48.5 FOR FEB. (as expected and marginally above the Flash print)

Chinese manufacturing PMI fell to an 8-month low holding barely above the crucial 50 level yesterday forcing Goldman to admit that "this signals further deceleration" in Chinese growth. All sub-indices showed signs of cyclical slowdown from January to February with perhaps the two most-critical ones - production and new orders - showing considerably larger falls than the headline index itself as we await this evening's HSBC print to confirm an average 'contraction'. China's Services PMI just printed at 55, up from 53.4, to a 3-month high led by a surge in the "expectations" sub-index.

So you want to be a mortgage banker? then listen now to what i say   Just get liability insurance... and get ready to pay and pay... 

Yuan volatility is part of a major rebalancing of global trade. The next phase of EM turmoil will involve banking crises in several countries including China.