Bank of America

Bank of America

Frontrunning: November 15

  • China to Ease One-Child Policy (WSJ), China announces major economic and social reforms (Reuters)
  • Consumers line up for launch of PlayStation 4 (USAToday)
  • Trust frays between Obama, Democrats (Politico)
  • Yellen Stands by Fed Strategy  (Hilsenrath)
  • Hero to zero? Philippine president feels typhoon backlash (Reuters)
  • Brussels warns Spain and Italy on budgets (FT)
  • Moody’s Downgrades Four U.S. Banks on Federal Support Review  (BBG)
  • CIA's Financial Spying Bags Data on Americans (WSJ)
  • Germany Digs In Against Risk Sharing in EU Bank-Failure Plan (BBG)
  • Bill Gates wants Norway's $800 billion fund to spend more in Africa, Asia (RTRS)

Just Before David Tepper Was Preaching A 20x P/E On CNBC, He Was Selling These Stocks

On October 15, two weeks after the end of the third quarter, David Tepper appeared on CNBC for his semi-annual stock pumpfest, most memorable for his suggestion that a 20x P/E multiple on the S&P was perfectly acceptable. Which would suggest Tepper was very bullish on risk. Which would suggest buying more stocks, not selling. Yet selling is precisely what he did between June 30 and September 30 according to his just released 13F. Specifically, after having a total long equity AUM of $6.9 billion at the end of the second quarter, the Appaloosian lowered the dollar value of his AUM by nearly 10%, to $6.3 billion as of September 30. So what did he liqudate? Here are his biggest liquidations and notable sales.

Why Has Nobody Gone To Jail For The Financial Crisis? Judge Rakoff Says: "Blame The Government"

Five years have passed since the onset of what is sometimes called the Great Recession. While the economy has slowly improved, there are still millions of Americans  leading lives of quiet desperation: without jobs, without resources, without hope. Who was to blame?

"The government, writ large, had a hand in creating the conditions that encouraged the approval of dubious mortgages. It was the government, in the form of Congress, that repealed Glass-Steagall, thus allowing certain banks that had previously viewed mortgages as a source of interest income to become instead deeply involved in securitizing pools of mortgages in order to obtain the much greater profits available from trading. It was the government, in the form of both the executive and the legislature, that encouraged deregulation..."

- Judge Jed Rakoff

Frontrunning: November 12

  • China Pledges Greater Role for Market in Economy (WSJ), China vows 'decisive' role for markets, results by 2020 (Reuters)
  • China expected to cut growth target to 7% (FT)
  • World Trade Center Tower Debuts in Manhattan Leasing Test (BBG)
  • Job Gap Widens in Uneven Recovery (WSJ)
  • Khamenei’s conglomerate thrived as sanctions squeezed Iran (Reuters)
  • Swiss referendum on wages of high earners stirs debate (FT)
  • Obama to Nominate Massad to Head CFTC (WSJ)
  • Japan readies additional $30 billion for Fukushima clean-up (Reuters)
  • Target Fills Its Cart With Amazon Ideas (WSJ)
  • Shadow banks reap Fed rate reward (FT)

Guest Post: How China Can Cause The Death Of The Dollar And The Entire U.S. Financial System

The death of the dollar is coming, and it will probably be China that pulls the trigger.  What you are about to read is understood by only a very small fraction of all Americans.  Right now, the U.S. dollar is the de facto reserve currency of the planet.  Most global trade is conducted in U.S. dollars, and almost all oil is sold for U.S. dollars.  More than 60 percent of all global foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S. dollars, and far more U.S. dollars are actually used outside of the United States than inside of it.  As will be described below, this has given the United States some tremendous economic advantages, and most Americans have no idea how much their current standard of living depends on the dollar remaining the reserve currency of the world.  Unfortunately, thanks to reckless money printing by the Federal Reserve and the reckless accumulation of debt by the federal government, the status of the dollar as the reserve currency of the world is now in great jeopardy.

Frontrunning: November 8

  • Fed Anxiety Rises as QE Raises Risk of Loss With Political Cost (BBG)
  • Iran Nuclear Deal Expected as Early as Friday (WSJ)
  • Israel rejects mooted interim Iran nuclear deal, Kerry heads to talks (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan Banker Backed $200 Million Madoff Loan in 2008 (BBG)
  • Unleashing the food nazis - FDA Says Trans Fats Aren't Safe in Food (WSJ)
  • Draghi Aggression Shows Pledges Backed by Rate Surprise (BBG)
  • S&P Cuts France's Credit Rating by One Notch to Double-A (WSJ)
  • S&P criticises France’s high tax rates for stifling growth (FT)
  • Payroll Gains in U.S. Probably Cooled Amid Government Shutdown (BBG)

Frontrunning: November 7

  • Twitter's IPO to Make Market Debut (WSJ); Twitter Raises $1.82 Billion, Pricier Value Than Facebook (BBG)
  • Worried Senators Press Obama on Health Law (WSJ)
  • Greenspan Says Yellen Was His Guide to Economics Research at Fed (BBG)
  • European Central Bank seen holding rates despite inflation tumble (Reuters)
  • Wall St. Bonuses Over All Are Predicted to Rise 5 to 10% (NYT)
  • Cautious consumers seen curbing U.S. economic growth (Reuters)
  • China Grants U.S. Investors Indirect Access to Its Stock Markets (WSJ)
  • Higher Tax Rates Give Top U.S. Earners Year-End Headaches (BBG)
  • Iran Loses Nuclear Leverage as World Ignores Export Drop (BBG)
  • NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly in the running for JPMorgan job (Post)

Bank Of America: "It's Getting Frothy, Man"

When even Bank of America has a note titled "It's getting frothy, man", and joins such other bubble-warners as JPM, Bill Gross, Larry Fink, and David Einhorn, one can be absolutely positive that the Fed will do... absolutely nothing.

The Fed's Choice: A Balance Sheet That Is $4.5 Trillion Or $5 Trillion... Or Much More

Now that an October taper is out of the question, bored investors, in a world in which fundamentals no longer matter, are looking forward to the next possible FOMC meetings and potential taper announcement dates, with three specific dates sticking out: December/January, which are really one cluster, and June, as possible announcement dates. Why are these dates important: because while a September tapering announcement would have resulted in a $4 trillion final Fed balance sheet (assuming the tapering proceeded to a full QE halt) before even more QE was unleashed, any subsequent taper dates imply a nice round number to the final Fed balance sheet at the end of 2014: either $4.5 trillion, assuming a January 2014 taper, or $5 trillion if the Fed waits until June to announce a tapering. This can be seen on the following chart from Bank of America...

Frontrunning: October 31

  • US Blasts Germany's Economic Policies (WSJ)
  • Citigroup, JPMorgan Said to Put Currency Dealers on Leave (BBG)
  • Watchdog: Syria Destroys Chemical-Arms Equipment (WSJ)
  • Kynikos Alumni Start Hedge Fund Betting on Declining Stocks (BBG)
  • China state media calls for stern action after Tiananmen attack (RTRS)
  • IMF warns of financial shock risk to Africa (FT)
  • Insurers Oppose Obamacare Extension as Danger to Profits (BBG)
  • BoJ content to ignore Fed tapering and go its own way (FT)
  • U.S. attorney wants DOJ to take civil action against BofA (RTRS)
  • NSA Fallout Hits AT&T's Ambitions In Europe (WSJ)