CRB
14 Dec 2012 – “ Stuck in the Middle with You ” (Stealers Wheel, 1972)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/14/2012 12:01 -0500Utterly boring Friday session, worsened by year end inactivity… PMI figures, which were actually needed on the more positive side to justify the latest levels in Risk were just so so in Europe. But, who cares? Periphery recovering further with Spain actually the best performer on the week (outside the bailed-out gang). US stuck despite better figures.
"Stuck in the Middle with You" (Bunds 1,35% unch; Spain 5,37% -1; Stoxx 2628 +0,2%; EUR 1,314 +60)
13 Dec 2012 – “ When It's Sleepy Time Down South ” (Louis Armstrong, 1931)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/13/2012 11:54 -0500Markets getting back to some normality with the Periphery still recovering, although less today after the auctions, Bunds 5 wider on the week, Italy 10, but Spain 7 tighter across the curve from last Friday. Equities and Risk oblivious to that anyway and synching with the US. Getting difficult to find something crisp out there with reduced news flow and volatility. Excitement to be found in the US on FC developments, now that Greece, Spain and Italy are seemingly off the table and that the FED has moved to QE4.
"When It's Sleepy Time Down South" (Bunds 1,35% +1; Spain 5,38% +4; Stoxx 2622 -0,2%; EUR 1,308 +40)
11 Dec 2012 – “ (Ain’t That) Good News ” (Sam Cooke, 1964)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/11/2012 11:56 -0500Markets recovering quite nicely from the Italian shock. Add some better outlook figures and we’re all friends again. The Spanish bill auction was less punishing than could have been feared. US opening stronger. Everything else is all good again. Greek bonds stellar.
"(Ain't That) Good News" (Bunds 1,32% +2; Spain 5,45% -9; Stoxx 2623 +1,0%; EUR 1,299 +60)
10 Dec 2012 – “ Uh...Uh - Bingo Bongo ” (Adriano Celentano, 1982)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/10/2012 11:58 -0500Surprisingly stable Risk. BTPs shot down in style. Italy? Down. Chinese data? Partially weak. Japan? In recession. French data? Weak. German data? Strong. Wow! Better have Friday’s PMI numbers really good. Analysts having to reinvent themselves once more as political experts to glare into a smoky crystal ball… Italian contagion contained, for now. Uh…Uh…!
"Uh...Uh - Bingo Bongo " (Bunds 1,30% unch; Spain 5,54% +9; Stoxx 2598 +0,0%; EUR 1,293 -20)
Shuffle Rewind 03-07 Dec " Only When I Sleep " (The Corrs, 1997)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/08/2012 08:22 -0500Shuffle Rewind 03-07 Dec " Only When I Sleep " (The Corrs, 1997)
This week in review (compared to Fri 30 Nov COB):
Click on day for related post, on title for song.
07 Dec 2012 – “ Bruttosozialprodukt ” (Geier Sturzflug, 1982)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/07/2012 12:10 -0500Hmmm… Need to find another way to kill time until Year End. Morning highs, lunch time lows and then trailing the US. EGBs on the stronger side with augurs seeing a weakening Germany and calls for lower rates putting the EUR under pressure. Ok, Germans: now work! Somebody has to pay the bills!
"Bruttosozialprodukt " (Bunds 1,3% +1; Spain 5,45% -1; Stoxx 2597 -0,3%; EUR 1,295 -20)
06 Dec 2012 – “ Magic Carpet Ride ” (Steppenwolf, 1968)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/06/2012 11:59 -0500Strong start in Risk to take out new 2012 highs in Equities and trying to retrace near 2012 Credit lows, too. Core EGBs cool. Bunga Square’s rug pulling scuttled all that easy living by noon, weighting on the Periphery and boosting Core EGBs. ECB gloomy. Equity – bond divergence not a flyer yet, though… US sideways and Risk Watchers back to scanning European politics. EUR falling of the carpet.
"Magic Carpet Ride" (Bunds 1,29% -6; Spain 5,46% +8; Stoxx 2605 +0,6%; EUR 1,297 -100)
05 Dec 2012 – “ Furry Happy Monsters ” (R.E.M., 1999)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/05/2012 12:05 -0500Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Over and over. Europe doing about fine on its own and with an urge to test higher risk levels, in absence of negative news. Spanish BONOs feeling sad… US look more fickle. Is the fruit getting bad? Question of Muppets getting nervous out of boredom, or what?
"Furry Happy Monsters" (Bunds 1,35% -4; Spain 5,38% +15; Stoxx 2589 +0,1%; EUR 1,307 -10)
04 Dec 2012 – “ 11 O'Clock Tick Tock ” (U2, 1980)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/04/2012 12:07 -0500Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Europe doing about fine on its own and with an urge to test higher risk levels, in absence of negative news. US more fickle on FCDRE. If this goes on until year-end… If it wasn’t for a bit of FCDRE… Tick. By. Tick. Movements. Equities high. Soft Core closing on historic lows.
"11 O’Clock Tick Tock " (Bunds 1,39% -2; Spain 5,23% -1; Stoxx 2587 +0,3%; EUR 1,308 +20)
03 Dec 2012 – “ Out Of Touch ” (Hall & Oates, 1984)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/03/2012 11:54 -0500Fiscal Cliff Discussion Risk Event still very much alive. Spain maths on budget. Italian maths, French… Bah… Still feels like things are a bit out of touch with reality here (equities vs. bonds). And that Greek buy-back looks really, really generous. Outwordly. Then again, best way to get rid of private ownership. After the OMT, the OPM… Obviously, other people’s money. PMI paint a slightly less bleak picture, but on rock bottom levels.
"Out Of Touch" (Bunds 1,41% +3; Spain 5,24% -6; Stoxx 2580 unch; EUR 1,306 +50)
Shuffle Rewind 26-30 Nov " Somewhere Over The Rainbow " ("IZ" Kamakawiwo?ole, 1993)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/01/2012 07:59 -0500Hey, this was cuddle time-week! A big Hug for everyone: Bonds, Equities, Periphery, ah, Periphery bonds! Greece…
As Super Mario said himself on Friday, albeit in a different context: “We were living in a Fairy World”. Cute way of spelling it out.
Fairies, rainbows, wonderful world… Let’s put IZ on the case!
"Somewhere Over The Rainbow" (Bunds 1,38% -6; Spain 5,30% -30; Stoxx 2580 +1,1%; EUR 1,301 +50)
30 Nov 2012 – “ What's Up? ” (4 Non Blondes, 1992)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/30/2012 12:01 -0500Europe rather direction-less on its own. Equities still rather firmer than not; with Bonds just the same. Macro data generally rather bleak, although expectations have been put so low lately that anything about palatable will do. Peeking over the Pond to see whether Fiscal Cliff discussions could scuttle things. Here late valuations are such that numbers should be really good to get things going. So: Drifting. Chatting. Checking.
"What's Up?" (Bunds 1,38% +1; Spain 5,3% -2; Stoxx 2580 unch; EUR 1,301 +30)
29 Nov 2012 – “ Sea of Love ” (The Honeydrippers, 1984)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/29/2012 12:05 -0500Looks like yesterday put into practice: Let’s thank everyone to turn around markets, when they sink. Nothing to break the barn stomp in Periphery bonds (but themselves). Italy brilliantly stuffed its primary dealer at a 2-year low. Core EGBs holding quite steady, given ROn in Risk and Periphery. Strong US GDP revision – but, as expected anyway. Given the actual level in Risk, good numbers are seen as given. Nothing weak, no more, never. Swimming in a Sea of (Risk) Love. Watch the Event / Headline risk on FC (& Greece. The math still seems quite odd…). Hard Periphery (especially Spain) slap-back in the afternoon, though.
"Sea Of Love" (Bunds 1,37% unch; Spain 5,32% +1; Stoxx 2579 +1,3%; EUR 1,298 +50)
28 Nov 2012 – “ I Thank You ” (ZZ Top, 1979)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/28/2012 12:00 -0500Once more, not much own stuff to chew on Europe’s own. Drifting. EGBs very strong on (relative) equity weakness. Periphery starting to glow like the ZZ Top Eliminator. In absence of any strong lead, need to start thanking everyone for input and support (Mario, Ben, Angie, Chrissie… Anyone working on the Fiscal Cliff. Mariano & Mario. Wolfie...). New paradigm put into practice: nothing will ever be weak again, nothing. And watch out for FC Ping-Pong! And I Thank You!
"I Thank You" (Bunds 1,37% -6; Spain 5,31% -20; Stoxx 2547 +0,4%; EUR 1,293 unch)
27 Nov 2012 – “ You Ain’t Seen Nothin' Yet ” (Bachman-Turner Overdrive, 1974)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/27/2012 12:17 -0500Ok. It’s not that the Greek deal is nothing. But then again, third strike. Eventually expected, or at least hoped for. Hence, lack of concrete follow-through. So, now it’s there. And now what? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet? What is there to see??? Pitch the markets some input, something concrete, something to feed off, something to see!
"You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet" (Bunds 1,43% +2; Spain 5,51% -9; Stoxx 2538 -0,2%; EUR 1,293 -30)
