CRB

Hmmm… Initial rebound after yesterday’s bashing was rather modest, settling on a bit better and awaiting US input. Spain overdid its auction, which looked just good in the sense of being able to say it sold a new bond for size – to its dealers. ECB, happy to have provided the idea of OMT to save the world from simple panic, now going pessimistic (in non-panicky way). It’s just soft out there… It’s the economy, Stupid! And it is weak.
"Bop 'Til You Drop " (Bunds 1,36% -2; Spain 5,84% +16; Stoxx 2479% +0,1%; EUR 1,275)

"Pinball Wizard" (Bunds 1,38% -5; Spain 5,68% +4; Stoxx 2486 -1,8%; EUR 1,276)

 Markets have found a good excuse to be on hold. Elections. No real US figures and a tendency to ignore European ones. No shoe dropping means upside, a little. Core EGBs rather firm nevertheless, for choice. Periphery, in absence of news, trading back and forth, so better today. EZ Q4 growth looks like stalling with a catch-up of a more lenient summer. More to come.
"Elected " (Bunds 1,43% +1; Spain 5,64% -9; Stoxx 2513 +0.5%; EUR 1,281)

Nothing really mattered… Eventually. Europe correcting Friday’s excessive optimism, in line with the US, treading water ahead of the elections. Still, the Periphery remained under (controlled) pressure with Spain cornering most, if not all negative headlines today – ahead of Thursday’s auction. 10 YRS periphery backing up to (selective) symbolic levels of 5% and 5.75% (damn’ near 6%).

We had ended the week on Fri 26 being “On the Road to Nowhere”, which essentially wasn’t that wrong a call, as markets got stuck on Sandy’s path.

So, as last week: Nothing new. Spailout OMT still not in play – and might not be this year's business. Officially. Hmmm... Yeah. Sure. We'll see. Greece, haggling not over.

Big Disconnect between Risk and Reality, Equities and Bonds.

If you bought the deep OTM, high theta option that is the Greek stock market on October 1, or wheat on January 1, 2012, you can now retire. For everyone else who still hasn't gotten the hang of this here "New Normal" Cramer market, better luck next time.

Uhhhh. It just couldn’t last. Risk had been pushed higher and higher in anticipation, but a combination of reality-check, rather unsettling Q3 earnings and renewed Spanish jitters just made players come down hard from their previous week’s high flying exercise.
Nothing new.

Spailout OMT still not in play. Greece, haggling not over. Earnings rather bad. PMIs dismal. Central Banks on hold, as everything is on the table, at least for the moment.

If it wasn’t because the government sponsorship doping Q3 US GDP, we wouldn’t have much on the bright side.

European equities still desperate to shoot up. Feels like too many fickle shorts and too many uncomfortable longs at the same time.

Markets uneasy after round-tripping back to OMT / QE unleash levels and no follow-up stimuli to be seen.

Puh… Why don’t we just wait for Apple? They might pitch a maxi iPhone 6? Or so…

Otherwise, rather Bad Karma day.

Flat start, bullish morning, refreshing afternoon. Nothing concrete or fundamental, so it’s a spiritual thing.

Might have missed something today .

The weakness after the US close and soft sentiment figures understood.

The mid-morning change in mind and subsequent rebound seems a bit puzzling here.

PMIs rather bad, the rest not good enough…

Uuuhh. Yesterday a heart attack and today Lights Out? Then again, markets went up seamlessly with no trigger and can thus slide the same way.

AAPL will need to come up with a helluva surprise mini iPad that does the cooking and bring the kids to school to turn around things overnight.

Spain situation still by far not settled enough to last without some real interventions / decisions.

Mostly boring.

European equity resilience seems surprising, given the otherwise gloomier mood. No news still played out as being good news and even catch-up to US levels seems a doubtful explanation.

Beats me.

This week was more spaced out with pessimism followed by Spain and equities ripping higher on  no news, at least nothing major nor new.

So we’ll dedicate the week to the Fab Fours’ song, which title’s abbreviation  has always been linked to substance abuse.

Just be careful when coming down…

Spacy week, though… Song pick of yesterday’s said it all. Somehow, things have spun out of control and the rocket started stalling and then drifting into the void…

Poor Major Tom left the capsule too early.

Regional elections in Spain over the weekend. As Rajoy denies there’s any pressure to seek help, BONOs slide. Damned if you don’t; damned if you do…

Interesting to see Core EGBs’ only muted reaction to the fading Risk sentiment, though (Bunds and UST still +15 on the week).

First “decent” Spanish auction in ages, decent being just normal, if not even boring. In absence of hard facts, outside the hypnosis trick “All will be well! Believe me…", I’d like to remain on the cautious side, though.

On EU decisisons, it could look like Good Cop / Bad Cop act, if it wasn’t clear that the players actually mean what they are saying.

Won't be EZ...