Technical Indicators

Overview of the price action in various currencies, S&P 500, Treasuries and the CRB Index

Outlook of the foreign exchange market in the week ahead, with some observations about equities and bonds.

A look at the price action in the major currencies, US Treasuries and the S&P 500.   

A dispassionate look at the issues and events shaping the investment climate in the week ahead.  

Near-term outlook for the dollar, without resorting to inflammatory and unproven claims.

Overview of the price action in the forward exchange market and a look ahead.  

Dispassionate overview of the price action in the foreign exchange market in the context of the funamental developments.    

Overview of the price action in the foreign exchange market and a short word on US 10-year Treasuries.

Could the euro rally on a 10-15 bp cut in key rates?  Technical indicators suggest this may be likely.  

It was interesting over the last couple of days to watch a series of both hosts and analysts scratching their heads and fumbling for answers over the recent decline in interest rates. After all, how could this be with inflation creeping up due to much stronger economic growth? More importantly, asset prices are clearly telling investors to get out of bonds as the "great rotation" is upon us as we launch into this new secular bull market, right? The recent decline in interest rates should really not be a surprise as there is little evidence that current rates of economic growth are set to increase markedly anytime soon. Consumers are still heavily levered, wage growth remains anemic, and business owners are still operating on an "as needed basis." This "economic reality" continues to constrain the ability of the economy to grow organically.

The near-term outlook for the US dollar appears to be improving.  Here is why.  

A look at the technical condition of the foreign exchange market.

Here is the technical reasons why the euro, sterling and Swiss franc retreat is a likely a correction rather than a change of the underlying trend.  US 10-year yields near lows and a recovery could lift the greenback vs JPY.  

It is not true that there has been a secret protocol, reintroducing fixed exchange rates, though the lackluster price action in the foreign exchange market and the continued erosion of volatility make it feel almost like it. 

Outlook for the major currencies in the week ahead.