Ukraine

Ukraine and Thailand are in the midst of chaotic turmoil right now, characterized by riots and violent clashes between protestors and police. It reminds us of the old quote from Louis XVI upon being informed in 1789 that the French people had stormed the Bastille. “Is it a revolt?”, the King asked; “No, sire,” the duke replied, “It is a revolution.” History is packed with examples of how people rise up in the streets whenever economic conditions deteriorate. The French Revolution in 1789 is one famous example where the people finally reached their breaking points after nearly starving to death. In our system we award a tiny elite with the power to kill, steal, wage war, educate our children, and conjure unlimited quantities of paper money out of thin air. This is just plain silly. The real answer is within ourselves.

With the Hryvnia at near-record lows (9.08 to the USD) and 3-month bill yields at 42%, we get a glimmer of good news from Ukraine:

• *UKRAINE PROTEST CAMP WON'T BE STORMED TONIGHT, OPPOSITION SAYS
• *UKRAINE GOVT, OPPOSITION AGREE ON TRUCE, YANUKOVYCH SAYS
• *UKRAINE TALKS AIMED AT STOPPING BLOODSHED, YANUKOVYCH SAYS

Though sadly we have seen this before...

Perhaps the most important line in today's FOMC minutes:

... Several participants suggested that risks to financial stability should appear more explicitly in the list of factors that would guide decisions about the federal funds rate once the unemployment rate threshold is crossed...

What this means is that since the Fed's legacy forward guidance of a 6.5% unemployment threshold is dead and buried (and will become a non-factor as soon as next month when unemployment could fall well below this red line), what the Fed is now suggesting is that the Fed will "qualitatively" guide to more intangible factors: like "risks to financial stability" better known as the prevailing level of the S&P 500. In short, is the Fed about to admit that screw inflation and screw unemployment, it was all about the S&P 500 and making the rich richer all along?

The US is adding its $0.02 to the international condemnation of the actions under way in Ukraine - desparate to re-write Victoria Nuland's narrative of "f##k the EUR" and political manipulation. President Obama, having not learned his lesson the last time he drew a red line, has come out swinging: OBAMA:`THERE WILL BE CONSEQUENCES IF PEOPLE STEP OVER THE LINE'; OBAMA SAYS U.S. CONDEMNS UKRAINE VIOLENCE IN `STRONGEST TERMS'; OBAMA:MILITARY SHOULDN'T ACT WHERE CIVILIANS CAN RESOLVE ISSUES. Of course, it's unclear if open military action against civilians is 'crossing the line' but we await Putin's response.

Just as we warned earlier, the stealing of the weapons cache and labeling of the break-away region as having undertaken "terrorist acts" has led to the military getting involved:

• *UKRAINE ARMY GIVEN POWER TO CHECK CIVILIAN VEHICLES
• *UKRAINE ARMY GIVEN POWER TO USE WEAPONS ON UKRAINIANS: MINISTRY

Under the "anti-terrorist" operation, Ukraine is a close to civil war as it has been so far. As Martin Armstrong concludes: "there is no peaceful resolution" no matter how many sanctions and condemnations the West makes.

With the Winter Olympics underway in Sochi, Russia is again in the global spotlight – and President Vladimir Putin is taking the opportunity to present his country as a resurgent power. But, beneath the swagger and fanfare lie serious doubts about Russia’s future. In fact, long-term price trends for the mineral resources upon which the economy depends, together with Russia’s history (especially the last two decades of Soviet rule), suggest that Putin’s luck may well be about to run out.

With Putin hoping that they can just keep it from going full civil war for a few more days, Ukraine continues to slide towards a dismal result. This morning sees the next level of escalation in the break-away Western region:

• *UKRAINE'S SECURITY SERVICE SAYS WEAPONS CACHE STOLEN: INTERFAX
• *UKRAINE SECURITY SERVICE SAYS PROTESTERS SEIZED 1,500 GUNS
• *UKRAINE SERVICE SAYS PROTESTERS SEIZED 100,000 ROUNDS OF AMMO
• *UKRAINE SERVICE SAYS PROTESTERS GUILTY OF `TERRORIST ACTS'

And with that, the 'excuse' the military needed to get involved as Interfax reports the Ukraine's SBU starts "Anti-terrorist" operation in the Western region of Ivano-Frankvisk. With 25 dead and 241 injured, according to the AP, we suspect these numbers are sadly just the start.

The events in the Ukraine continue to deteriorate. Moments ago Lawmakers in Ukraine’s Lviv region, declared independence after backers evicted appointed governor overnight. Lviv’s parliament formed executive committee with department heads in Governor Oleh Salo’s administration that will take over functions of regional government, Oksana Dmetryv, a spokeswoman for Speaker Petro Kolodiy, said today by phone from Lviv. Protesters also seized headquarters of security services in Lviv, a region of 2.5 million people bordering Poland. Elsewhere, there were reports of more military vehicles crossing through Kiev: if there are any more Molotov Cocktail video follow ups we will be sure to capture them.

• Ukraine leader denounces coup bid, West weighs sanctions (Reuters)
• Time to buy Imodium calls: Kuroda Easing Doomed as Yen Seen Missing 120 Level (BBG)
• Teens Disappear From U.S. Workforce (BBG)
• Fed Sets Rules for Foreign Banks (WSJ)
• Quant Funds Feel Investor Bite After Underperforming (BBG)
• China Probes Qualcomm, InterDigital Over Monopoly Concerns (WSJ)
• Capital One says it can show up at cardholders' homes, workplaces  (LATimes)
• SEC Gains Power to Take Profit Made From Insider Trading (BBG)

After surging yesterday for no reason whatsoever because as we explained on several occasions, there were no surprises in the Tuesday BOJ statement, and the doubling and extension of its loan facilities was implicit and factored into the doubling of its monetary policy (as goldman explained quite well), both the Nikkei and the USDJPY has been forced to revert, with the latter all important carry funding pair back to 102 and in danger of sliding lower, as a result ES is now below yesterday's lows. Which is why the 102 USDJPY "invisible hand" tractor beam will be all important today especially if the market finally starts paying attention to the proxy civil war that has gripped the Ukraine. Stocks traded lower, albeit in a relatively range-bound range this morning, with the Spanish IBEX-35 underperforming. Banking names remained under pressure, with focus still on yesterday’s reports that Spanish banks' bad loans marked a fresh record, together with comments by ECB's Weidmann, who said that sovereign debt purchases would constrain the central bank via political pressure. Similar view was also echoed by ECB’s Nowotny, who said that government bond buying US Fed-style would be difficult to do under ECB's mandate.

Watch as sparks fly between a Ukrainian military APC, possibly the same one we revealed earlier, as it gets into some blazingly close encounters with the Kiev protesters. It is unclear who won however it is quite clear that at this point the proxy war in Ukraine between Russia/Gazprom and the European Union/US State Dept/Saudi/Qatar can be upgraded to "hot."

It's getting form bad to worse in the Ukraine: either martial law will be announced any time soon or the proxy civil war becomes a real one. On the bright side, there is something to be said about having a nation's criminal cases all in paper format: once there is a revolution, everyone's slate gets wiped clean...

So Venezuela is collapsing, Thailand is crumbling, and Ukraine is for all intent and purpose under martial law, US macro data is dreadful (and no, it's not all the frigging weather), and German consumer confidence dumped again; and US stocks soar (8th day in a row for Nasdaq for first time since July) on the back of a BoJ move that was fully expected (and entirely under-utlized) but sprung USDJPY back above 102. S&P futures volume was 35% below average as the day-session range was extremely small. The Russell 2000 almost reached unchanged for 2014. The un-taper, QE balls-to-the-wall trade continues it would appear - Gold (and even more so silver - longest win-streak in 46 years) continue to surge; Treasury yields continue to slide; the USD slips lower (led by EUR strength); and of course, high-beta equities jump higher (as stodgy big caps underperform). Unfortunately, the EM crisis is far from over - as EM FX tumbled today. VIX also rose notably, disconnecting from stocks; and credit markets are wider today than Friday's close.

Independence Square Is Ablaze

Days after Kazakhstan broke out is tanks post-devaluation, the promise to "Restore order by all means envisaged" is under way in Ukraine as military vehicles are being mobilized into the city center. As Martin Armstrong so eloquently noted recently, "the Western powers represented by the EU and the US have nothing to stand on to protect Ukraine and can only offer lip-service at best. So once again, it appears that Ukraine is doomed and the best one can hope for there, is that Russia will allow the West to leave. The countdown goes forward and the political and economic crisis is indicative of what we see with the first shot across the bow in the rising trend of the Cycle of War." The US has 'demanded' an end to the violence...

Despite the ongoing efforts of the rest of the world to ignore what is rapidly escalating into a potential pivot point in global geopolitics, Ukraine has gone from bad to worse in the last few hours with 3 dead and hundreds injured:

• *UKRAINE RIOT POLICE AMASS ON PERIMETER OF INDEPENDENCE SQUARE
• *KIEV SUBWAY SYSTEM SHUT DOWN, INTERFAX SAYS
• *UKRAINE OPPOSITION: ALL WOMEN SHOULD LEAVE INDEPENDENCE SQUARE
• *UKRAINE RIOT POLICE DISMANTLING BARRICADES APPROACHING MAIDAN

The riot police have been told to 'impose order by all means envisaged' and it appears they are rapidly moving towards that goal.