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France's New Sharia Police

The silence of politicians and human rights organizations, when non-Muslim women are violently assaulted because they wear shorts that are not compatible with sharia -- as opposed to their thundering indignation against police for issuing a fine to a Muslim woman in a burkini -- signals an immensely important political and institutional move...

The Central Bank Power Shift From West To East, Game Of Thrones Style

The Fed clings to status quo. Other central banks are vying to knock it down, or at least loosen its grip on them. But the Fed behaves as if it has no idea there are other powerful central banks that want to grab and harness its power. It carries on refusing to acknowledge that there may come a time, sooner rather than later, where its power is attacked. The ramifications of such an attack will impact the standing of the U.S. in the world.  The Fed can carry on being oblivious, but Game of Thrones illustrates the struggles playing out right now.

Crude Declines As OPEC Deal Doubts Emerge; Futures Roll Over

After oil soared over 5% yesterday, its biggest jump since April, overnight skepticism and doubts have emerged about the viability and compliance with the deal, coupled with a boost in production by non-OPEC producers, and as a result WTI has dipped back under $47, down 0.5%, suggesting that the OPEC surge may be short-lived, and modestly pressuring US equity futures.

Peak Debt Complacency: Carmen "Different This Time" Reinhart Urges Debt Restructuring

[The establishment] needs no reminder of the historical record, but it bears noting that more than a dozen advanced economies received debt relief in one form or another during the depression of the 1930s. The approach to unwinding current debts is likely to vary considerably across countries, but it is time to place greater emphasis on debt restructuring (which comes with a menu of options) than on accumulating more debt.

Why There Is Trump

It’s over! The entire model our societies have been based on for at least as long as we ourselves have lived, is over! That’s why there’s Trump.

Global Trade To Grow At Slowest Pace Since Financial Crisis

According to the latest WTO forecast, global trade is set to grow at the slowest pace since the financial crisis: the WTO now expects world trade will again grow more slowly than expected in 2016, expanding by just 1.7%, well below the April forecast of 2.8%. This means that 2016 will be the first time in 15 years that the ratio between trade growth and world GDP has fallen below 1:1. 

Dangerous Bubbles In Plain Sight

Relative to disposable income, the value of household financial assets now far exceeds the last two bubble peaks. And that has happened in an economic environment which suggests just the opposite. To wit, valuation multiples and cap rates should be falling owing the fact that the productivity and growth capacity of the US economy has been heading south ever since the turn of the century. So here’s the danger...