OPEC

After yesterday's unprecedented volatility fireworks across all markets and continents, today so far has been a modest disappointment, with no crashes and subsequent surges in China, where the Politburo's only achievement was keeping the bubble dream alive by pushing the Shanghai Composite over 5,000 for the first time since January 2008, closing the index 1.5% higher on the day - a very modest gain by China's recent blow-off top standards.  Europe, too, has been relatively tame with the 10 Year Bund starting off on the wrong foot, the yield rising back above 0.91% before once again dipping to the upper 0.8% range, tracking the move in the EURUSD tick for tick, which also is a tractor beam for the US 10 Year. On the equity, front, things are just as muted, with futures at the Low of Day as of this moment, despite yesterday's last minute manic buying spree, the S&P set to open below 2100 as a result.

When Draghi warned traders yesterday that "markets must get used to periods of higher volatility" boy was he not kidding.

Legislation has been in introduced in the California state Senate that would increase the state’s approximately 47 cents-per-gallon gas tax by 10 cents.  The new California fuel levy, which would be the state's first increase since 1994, will be collected on top of an 18.4-cents-per-gallon federal gas tax that is charged to all drivers in the nation to fill the federal government’s transportation funding coffers. 

It’s almost a foregone conclusion that OPEC won’t cut its production levels at its June 5 meeting in Vienna. Anyone needing strong evidence, if not proof, of this need only listen to Ali al-Naimi, the architect of the cartel’s effort to reclaim market share. In fact, some observers say OPEC not only won’t cut overall production levels from 30 million barrels a day to shore up prices, but may even increase them.

• China stocks fall, led by ChiNext, on margin tightening; Hong Kong down too (Reuters)
• Bond market sell-off rumbles on, stocks feel the pinch (Reuters)
• Bond Rout Wipes Out 2015 Gains as Traders Stay Glued to Screens (BBG)
• Greek Groundhog Day Continues With Talks Failing to Break Impasse (BBG)
• Greece and Its Creditors Agree on Some Measures in Bailout Talks (WSJ)
• 'Bellingcat Report Doesn't Prove Anything': Expert Criticizes Allegations of Russian MH17 Manipulation (Spiegel)
• GE Said to Hire Banks to Start Sale on $20 Billion Assets (BBG)
• Alibaba Pictures plans $1.6bn share sale (FT)
• How Companies Justify Big Pay Raises for CEOs (BBG)

For once Mario Draghi was right. A day after the European central bank head warned of a spike in volatility, volatility did just that, with markets everywhere from China to Europe seeing volatility explode.

• Obama signs bill reforming surveillance program (Reuters)
• Tsipras to meet Juncker in Brussels for talks on agreement (AFP)
• Spot the irony: OECD cuts global growth forecast, says recovery taking hold (Reuters)
• The Secret Money Behind Vladimir Putin's War Machine (BBG)
• Companies' Borrowing Spree Darkens Stock Market Future (BBG)
• How OPEC Hurt Big Oil (WSJ)
• What's OPEC Going to Do With Iran's Million Barrels a Day? (BBG)
• Draghi’s Europe Looks Healthiest for Years Despite Greece (BBG)
• Bund yields inch higher, euro holds ahead of ECB (Reuters)

With the Greek IMF payment just 48 hours away, and Europe having submitted its best and final offer to Greece in a battle of "deal proposals", today Greek PM Tsipras will meet with European Commission President Juncker to discuss the recently submitted reform proposals by the Greek premier. However, a Greek government spokesman says that Greek PM Tsipras will not meet Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem despite several reports suggesting that they would do so later today. Last night it was reported that the EU, ECB, IMF agreed on terms for a cash-for-reform plan to be presented to Greece. However, a senior EU official has said that they are concerned that the stringent measures of the proposal could be met with rejection by Greece.

During “normal times” – an economic growth phase accompanied or generated by rising systemic leverage – central banks have incentive to promote nominal growth and inflation, which make banking systems profitable and their free-spending political overseers happy. In such times, commercial banks have fiduciary responsibilities to shareholders to constantly increase their market values, which they do by expanding their balance sheets.  Now that economies are highly leveraged, extinguishing debt would require banks to reduce the sizes of their loan books, which would shrink their market values. Thus, it seems economic policy makers never have incentive to promote debt extinguishment in the banking system, regardless of economic conditions or prospects.

There have been a steady stream of articles championing the ingenuity of U.S. tight oil producers for figuring out how to maintain production with fewer rigs. It doesn’t strike me as ingenious to produce more oil at low prices that ensure losing money. OPEC will meet on Friday (June 5, 2015) and most doubt that a production cut will result. If that is the outcome, expect the recent rally in oil prices to end badly.

This month could be quite a spectacular one.......

• Greece, creditors exchanging documents to reach deal - Commission (Reuters)
• Greece’s Creditors Reach Consensus on Proposal to Athensa (WSJ)
• Greece calls on lenders to accept 'realistic' plan sent on Monday (Reuters)
• Hundreds missing, many elderly tourists, after ship capsizes on China's Yangtze (Reuters)
• Oil up ahead of OPEC meeting as dollar slips (Reuters)
• U.S. Met Secretly With Yemen Rebels (WSJ)
• Euro zone back to inflation as May prices beat forecast (Reuters)
• Patients Get Extreme to Obtain Hepatitis Drug That's 1% the Cost Outside U.S. (BBG)

Once again it's all about Greece, with the latest iteration of a "Greek deal is imminent" rumor making the rounds and, just like yesterday, sending futures in the green, just a little over an hour after the increasingly more illiquid E-mini future has slid 0.7%. The EUR, where the bulk of Virtu headline kneejerk reacting algos are to be found, has surged over 100 pips overnight on more hope and optimism.

Will global QE carry on forever...the next month may give out some clues..will it be Junemaggedon after we had May-hem??

The six-month clock is up. OPEC is convening this week in Vienna, as it does every six months, to discuss and decide on how the group will coordinate. So what should we expect from OPEC’s upcoming meeting on June 5? More of the same. Having made the decision to fight it out, there is almost no reason to back off now. US shale producers have hung on longer than many anticipated. OPEC has inflicted a lot of damage across the US shale patch, but it hasn’t yet struck the deathblow that it had wanted. OPEC’s strategy could still work, but will need more time. That points to a stay-the-course approach heading into the June meeting and beyond.