Many people see national finances as an impenetrable fog of numbers and acronyms, which they feel is best left up to financial specialists to interpret for them. But try to see national finances as a henhouse, yourself as a hen, and financial specialists as foxes. Perhaps you should pay a little bit of attention - perhaps a bit more than one would expect from a chicken?
There are effectively no tools left for governments and central banks to deal with another major crisis. Like Paris in 1940, they have no Plan B. They’re completely defenseless to support the financial system or the currency in the event of a major shock. We should all take a moment to appreciate this level of incompetence. This doesn’t happen overnight. It takes decades of “blunder and neglect” to engineer financial vulnerability on this scale. But they’ve somehow managed to pull it off.
"... the immediate aftermath of such a non-payment will be to push bond yields up across the periphery. This rise in the fiscal risk premium (Exhibit 3) will of course be limited, because the ECB will likely accelerate QE, including via the Bundesbank. That will push rate differentials, especially longer-dated ones, against EUR/$. We estimate that the initial fiscal risk premium effect could be three big figures, while the subsequent QE effect could be worth around seven big figures"
While the latest European FinMin summit desperately tried to put on a united facade when responding to the latest and greatest Greek proposal, which incidentally is so weak that the IMF will throw up all over it as shown below, the reality behind the scenes was anything but. In fact, Greece was this close to having capital controls forced on it earlier today, and would have, if the demand of not just its old "BFF", Germany's finmin Schauble, but Ireland's Noonan, had materialized. As the FT reported moments ago, "Germany’s Wolfgang Schäuble and Michael Noonan, his Irish counterpart, pushed for curbs on emergency liquidity for Greek banks unless capital controls were imposed, one of the officials said.
Greece Told To Have A Deal Ready Before Monday Meeting; Tsipras Submits Revised Plan With No Pension CutsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/21/2015 20:25 -0400
With just under 24 hours until Monday's final summit after which even JPMorgan now agrees the ECB will be forced to use a nuclear option and limit or cut Greek ELA thus imposing capital controls as a "negotiating tactic", earlier today both France and Germany told Greece it must have a reform deal agreement with the Troika finalized and delivered before a crucial leaders’ summit between Athens and its creditors on Monday; in other words before trading opens on Monday.
Any economic intervention, no matter how slight, causes unintended consequences. There are things that you cannot see, that the planner cannot anticipate. There are also easy ones...
A Greek exit from the euro would change everything. The greatest change being simply doubt and fear regarding the outlook for other vulnerable EU nations, EU banks and the EU banking and financial system. We discuss short and long term considerations, best and case outcomes, and wealth preservation strategies.
The Greek case offers quite a relevant view into the world of 21st century monetary alchemy, because that is what it really amounts to. What is left, however, is the worst of all cases; no recovery, no lending and now just more financial imbalance piled onto the same negative pressures and imbalances that never really went away. What is amazing is how short the attention of “investors” may be, and how they allow themselves to think monetary complexity passes for proficiency or even expertise despite all and continued observation otherwise.
The troika of Greek creditors has gone into full-frontal morals-be-damned attack mode. This has turned into the kind of economic warfare one would expect to see between sworn and lethal enemies, that the US would gladly use against Russia for instance, but not between partners in a union founded on principles based entirely and exclusively on being mutually beneficial to everyone involved. And all EU nations should understand by now that this is not about Greece anymore, it’s about all of them.
As so often, Mr. Tsipras makes a number of fair points. However, it seems to us that everybody is skirting the main issues. Greece cannot become a “socialist Utopia”, unless its citizens are happy with being condemned to a hand-to-mouth existence for a long, long time indeed. Whether or not Greece defaults, the one thing the government will be unable to fund is the very socialism that is its basic ideology.
A glance at a chart of 5Y Greek Govvies shows the last trade at a 16% yield, well below the worst 20% yields - suggesting yet another storm in a teacup as "markets know best." However, this is entirely wrong! Greek government bond trading has stopped... 5Y bonds have not traded since April 24th. In fact given current equity levels, 5Y yields would be closer to 22% - as bad they have been ever. The entire fixed income market in Greece has died with CDS liquidity having collapsed and only sporadic longer-dated bonds trading.
Things have never been this dry for this long in the recorded history of the state of California, and this has created an unprecedented water crisis. At this point, 1,900 wells have already gone completely dry in California, and some communities are not receiving any more water at all. As you read this article, 100 percent of the state is in some stage of drought, and there has been so little precipitation this year that some young children have never actually seen rain. Sadly, this is just the beginning. There is a reason why experts refer to fresh water as “the new oil”.
It’s not difficult to see that the foundation is crumbling...
We want to highlight today's absolute failure at investigative reporting, and the worst example of journalistic capture by the Federal Reserve that we have ever seen because at stake is the criminality, competence and corruption of that most important of organizations in modern society, the US Federal Reserve.