MF Global

The day after MF Global filed, we calculated that contrary to widely accepted media expectations that the client theft at MF Global was limited to "only" $600 million, the true client loss (and thus, MF Global executive felony) was in fact up to $1.5 billion. Sure enough, three weeks in the Trustee has come to see things in a comparable light. From Reuters: "The trustee liquidating MF Global Holdings Ltd'sbroker-dealer unit said on Monday that the apparent "shortfall" of customer funds may be larger than the futures brokerage had reported prior to its bankruptcy. "The trustee believes that even if he recovers everything that is at U.S. depositories, the apparent shortfall in what MF Global management should have segregated at U.S. depositories may be as much as $1.2 billion or more," the trustee, James Giddens, said in a statement. He added that the amount could change. Giddens also said he expects in early December to transfer 60 percent of what is in segregated customer accounts for U.S. futures positions, pending court approval. He said the transfer would require $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion to implement, exhausting much of the assets under the trustee's control. MF Global was run by former Goldman Sachs & Co chief and New Jersey governor Jon Corzine before its Chapter 11 filing on Oct. 31. The filing came after the New York-based company revealed that it made a $6.3 billion bet on European sovereign debt. Corzine resigned on Nov. 4." In other news, major Chicago-based exchanges are fine (no seriously: they got some very sweet preferential terms in the account transfer... to the detriment of former MF Global accounts). And it goes without saying that Corzine has not even been questioned yet.

We believe that the issue of primary dealer status – the role of the primary dealers, the significance of foreign firms and their importance in the primary dealer process, versus domestic US firms – needs to be examined. It needs to be aired publically.

Gerald Celente, in an interview with Russia Today, claims he cannot access his PM trading account or get answers to his inquiries. It turns out Lind-Waldock, who he originally had the account with, was subsequently bought out by the now bankrupting MF Global. Understandably distraught, Celente asserts, “They took my money out of my account, six figures, and they have it. They closed out two of my positions, and I cannot get any answers, and I can’t get my money.” Celente got many of us thinking—“If a guy like him can be refused access to his money, then who is safe?” Some argue he should not have been buying “paper gold.” Celente states that he was buying PM futures and taking delivery. “Max Keiser” the “Silver Bears” “Turd Fergusen” and more, have encouraged us to buy silver and “Bust the Comex.” Many of us here on Zero Hedge have fantasized in the comments section about someone wealthy enough to lay a few billion on the Comex for PMs and then stand for delivery. Celente, it is arguable, was doing this not only for himself but perhaps for Joe and Josephine Average who do not have the ammunition to fight this fight. But as I got to thinking, I realized all of the above misses a valuable take away lesson. It is not simply the case that MF Global is a “first domino to fall” or a “canary in the coal mine” or a “harbinger of collapse.” MF Global is a fractal in a frying pan.

Pick the odd one out of the following 7 banks, while in the process pointing out what they have in common: Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc, Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Jefferies Group Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. As it so happens 6 of the 7 are Bank Holding Companies, and have access to the Fed's various emergency facilities. The seventh, Jefferies, which a few years ago, boasted that it is now the largest remaining true investment bank after all its competitors had converted to BHC status, may soon regret it said that and did not join its peers. Why? For the same reason why on November 1, the day after MF Global filed for bankruptcy, we tweeted: "Here is why Jefferies is in deep doodoo: http://1.usa.gov/uNBhzq" The reference of course is to the now legendary prospectus for the MF Global 6.25% notes of 2016 that had the infamous Corzine key man event: "interest rate applicable to the notes will be subject to an increase of 1.00% upon the departure of Mr. Corzine as our full time chief executive officer due to his appointment to a federal position by the President of the United States and confirmation of that appointment by the United States Senate prior to July 1, 2013." At this point the only appointment Obama may give Corzine is that of a presidential pardon for a criminal felony offense (assuming of course Corzine brings a sleeping bag to Zuccotti square: the only offense for which he may ever be arrested). Alas, Jefferies, and the 6 other banks, do not have that luxury: as of late this afternoon, all six were sued by pension funds "who said the bonds' offering prospectuses concealed problems that led to the futures brokerage's collapse." Precisely as Zero Hedge expected. And unfortunately for Jefferies, this may well be the final nail in the coffin - because while the market had punished the bank for its Exposure, the biggest unknown in the past 2 weeks was whether and when it would be sued precisely for its MF Global liability. That time is now: next up - every single entity that was impaired in part or in whole as a result of the MF Global bankruptcy will follow suit and sue the same 7 banks... of which only Jefferies does not have the benefit of an infinite backstop.

Imagine you are Ben Bernanke, or on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The time frame is July and August of 2011 and the price of gold is on a tear. Commodities inflation has been persistent and is breaking out everywhere. Your prediction that inflation “is contained” and is a “temporary phenomena” are beginning to look absurd. What do you do? Simple. Hint that QE3, the primary drive of inflation, is coming and then fail to deliver at the September FOMC meeting. That takes care of the price of gold and the gold stocks. Ah, but those pesky commodities speculators keep making money and trading against what you want the markets to do. So what is to be done there? Hey Jon Corzine, how about you tank the largest broker for the small commodities punters in the world, and we let them twist in the wind? That will serve them right. Teach them to bet against the government approved scenario.

It is with regret and unflinching moral certainty that I announce that Barnhardt Capital Management has ceased operations. After six years of operating as an independent introducing brokerage, and eight years of employment as a broker before that, I found myself, this morning, for the first time since I was 20 years old, watching the futures and options markets open not as a participant, but as a mere spectator. The reason for my decision to pull the plug was excruciatingly simple: I could no longer tell my clients that their monies and positions were safe in the futures and options markets – because they are not. And this goes not just for my clients, but for every futures and options account in the United States. The entire system has been utterly destroyed by the MF Global collapse. Given this sad reality, I could not in good conscience take one more step as a commodity broker, soliciting trades that I knew were unsafe or holding funds that I knew to be in jeopardy... The futures and options markets are no longer viable. It is my recommendation that ALL customers withdraw from all of the markets as soon as possible so that they have the best chance of protecting themselves and their equity. The system is no longer functioning with integrity and is suicidally risk-laden. The rule of law is non-existent, instead replaced with godless, criminal political cronyism... Finally, I will not, under any circumstance, consider reforming and re-opening Barnhardt Capital Management, or any other iteration of a brokerage business, until Barack Obama has been removed from office AND the government of the United States has been sufficiently reformed and repopulated so as to engender my total and complete confidence in the government, its adherence to and enforcement of the rule of law, and in its competent and just regulatory oversight of any commodities markets that may reform. So long as the government remains criminal, it would serve no purpose whatsoever to attempt to rebuild the futures industry or my firm, because in a lawless environment, the same thievery and fraud would simply happen again, and the criminals would go unpunished, sheltered by the criminal oligarchy.

Update: CME has just released its response in this issue. Apparently they deny they are at fault.

While we will leave the question of the ridiculous Initial margin cut by the CFTC to the side (an action that should have been since reversed, even using the CME's troubled logic, if it was merely meant to facilitate onboarding of MF Global marginless accounts) a bigger, far more troubling question has emerged, namely whether CME has liability over the MF Global bankruptcy. Goldman's Daniel Harris explains: "CME has been under pressure (-9% wow vs. S&P +1% wow) owing to worries it may face liability over the timing of its communication with the CFTC following discovery of a shortfall in MF Global’s segregated client accounts, given its obligations as the DSRO (designated self regulatory organization). According to the CFTC, a DSRO must provide “immediate notification” when “a member has failed to segregate or has misused customers’ funds.” While details emerge, the stock remain under pressure pending more clarity on (1) the status of the reportedly missing $600 mn in client segregated assets, (2) incremental information on how CME satisfied its obligations as the DSRO with respect to MF Global, and (3) the status of CME/CME Trust’s offer to provide a $300 mn guarantee to the SIPC Trustee for the expedited return of client assets." Perhaps the CME should have stuck to just hiking gold and silver margins...

More delays, more fees.  MF Global customers need adequate representation in the creditor committee.

One of the more high profile victims of MF Global’s fraud is economist and trends forecaster Gerard Celente. Celente became the latest victim of the MF Global bankruptcy when funds, in the six figures, in his gold futures account were taken (or ‘looted’ as Celente called it) by Chapter 11 trustees. Celente was hit with a margin call within days of the corporate shutdown despite his account being fully funded. Celente told Russia Today (RT), “I really got burned, I got a call last Monday, I have an account with Lind-Waldock, and I have been trading gold since 1978, and I have a very simple strategy. As you well know, I’ve been very bullish on gold for many years…  So I was building up my account to take delivery on a contract, and I got a call on Monday, and they said I needed to have a margin call.  And I said, what are you talking about, I’ve got a ton of money in my account.  They responded, oh no you don’t, that money’s with a trustee now.” He said that MF Global “have cleaned out and ruined a lot of people. So maybe the name MF, I’m thinking the first word of MF is ‘mother’ and we could put the other word in there if you use your imagination . . .  because that is what they are doing to everybody.”  Celente is astute and is on record regarding the importance of owning physical gold bullion. The incident shows the increasingly fundamental importance of owning physical bullion (see table above) – either by taking delivery or by owning in personal allocated accounts.

Will the rule of law prevail?

Consuelo Mack has just released a long overdue interview with David Rosenberg, in which the former Merrill strategist is allowed to speak for 27 whole minutes without commercial interruptions of manic depressive momentum chasers cutting off his every sentence, demanding he tell them what stocks he is buying right this second! In addition to the traditional now discussion of America's depression (see attached extended walkthru by Rosie), probably the more interesting part in the interview starts at minute 11 when the conversation shifts to MF Global which to Rosie is a canary in the coalmine, and is merely the 2011 version of Bear Stearns as there is "never just one cockroach." Then the Q&A shifts to Europe, the ECB's next steps and the future of the Eurozone and Germany in particular. Mack concludes with some thoughts on what bond rates indicate about the future of the word, how the 7% output gap as a % of GDP will drive deflation (although in a vacuum: there is little accounting for the Fed's and global central bank kneejerk reaction), and how the corporation is now more powerful than the sovereign, courtesy of more pristine corporate balance sheets than those of actual countries, all of which are on the verge. Will the IBM Stellar Sphere, the Microsoft Galaxy, Planet Starbucks take over when Europe and the US finally tumble? Oh, and like a good M. Night Shyamalan movie, there is a surprising twist ending.

UPDATED: Full Statement added

Headlines via Bloomberg for now:

*MF GLOBAL'S 1,066 EMPLOYEES HAVE BEEN FIRED, TRUSTEE SAYS

*MF GLOBAL EMPLOYEES LOSE JOBS AS BROKER LIQUIDATES    :MFGLQ US

*MF GLOBAL TRUSTEE TO HIRE UP TO 200 PEOPLE TO AID LIQUIDATION

It is not often that we see an official admission by a company to its regulators that oops, 'it just may have embezzled' hundreds of millions of dollars from its clients. Today, courtesy of the WSJ, we do, namely that of MF Global advising the SEC that it has "discovered a significant shortfall in its segregated funds account." Expect to see this revalation in countless investor lawsuits against the company. Also, expect to see all bonuses paid to MFG's employees the day before the company filed to be clawed back in the form of fraudulent conveyance lawsuits, so to any former MF workers: our advice is don't spend all that client money just yet. Incidentally, the primary SEC supervisor for MF Global is Michael Macchiaroli at macchiarolim@sec.gov - let's all take a minute to personally thank him for being on top of this whole bankruptcy like a hawk.

To print or not to print: the choice of whether to open the European Pandora's box, which as we suggested two months ago is an interesting but ultimately moot thought experiment, has suddenly become the only talking point for TV pundits desperate for eyeballs and suckers to buy their books, who are now experts not only on monetary policy but European monetary policy. And while 99% of these empty chatterboxes should be promptly muted, one person whose opinion we value in any regard is that of Jim Grant. Earlier today, with Bloomberg TV's Deirdre Bolton, he discussed not only the expected ECB response to the ever worsening contagion (while the ECB bought Italian bonds in the open market, and potentially primary against its charter, it is prohibited from buying French bonds which is why the OAT-Bund spread closed at record wides), but all the other developments in the insolvent continent. Here are some of the key sounbdbites, and, of course, the full clip.

Missing customer funds might be those of MF Global itself.  Also, JPM gets to keep any and all collateral and cash it seized in return for $8 million?