Deutsche Bank

One of the big problems with China's FX move is that although they've "only" seen a 3% currency fall (in the onshore Yuan) since their announcement last week, as Deutsche's Jim Reid explains... others have subsequently followed suit either deliberately or via market pressure. Emerging Market FX has been falling for 9 straight weeks but the last 2 have seen a dramatic escalation in the carnage...

Just one day after allowing the tenge to fall sharply in the interbank market and no longer able to take the pain from plunging crude prices, Kazakhstan moved to a free float for its currency overnight, causing the tenge to plunge by a quarter.

The central bank has injected new capital into the China Development Bank (CDB), which provides medium and long term financing to major national projects, in a bid to reinforce its capital adequacy.

Political turmoil, rising violence, and general EM malaise have hit Turkey's currency hard and on Tuesday, the central bank left rates unchanged prompting further weakness in the lira which had already fallen earlier in the session after Emine Nur Gunay, PM Davutoglu's chief adviser, hinted that a rate hike was not in the cards.

• China stocks slump 6 percent on fears of further yuan depreciation (Reuters)
• U.S. Lacks Ammo for Next Economic Crisis (Hilsenrath)
• Emerging Markets Extend Slide as Commodities Fall; Pound Jumps (BBG)
• China yuan to move both ways, more 'adjustments' unlikely: central bank economist (Reuters)
• Playing Chinese markets is as simple as 'follow the leader' (Reuters)
• PBOC Injection Shows China Worries About Outflows (WSJ)
• Russia Fails to Soothe Oil Concerns as Citi Joins Ruble Bears (BBG)

Moments ago, Morgan Stanley did it again just as expected, only this time it at least followed protocol when it announced it is raising its price target on TSLA from $280 to a whopping $465, or just shy of $61 billion in implied market cap. Incidentally at this price TSLA would be the biggest US automaker, surpassing not only GM's $50bn in market capo, but also Ford's $60 billion.

• China central bank tries to soothe global markets, says no reason for yuan to fall further (Reuters)
• Huge blasts at Chinese port kill 44, with hundreds injured (Reuters)
• China efforts to slow yuan fall hoist Europe shares, bond yields (Reuters)
• Greek Economy Unexpectedly Surged Before Capital Controls (BBG)
• Joe Biden Is Sounding Out Allies About a 2016 Bid (WSJ)
• U.K. Tries to Kick-Start Shale Gas With Planning Speedup (BBG)

Over the weekend, when looking carefully at Tesla's cash burn, pardon cash inferno we said that at "the current cash burn rate, TSLA can only fund just two more quarters of cash burn at which point, and most likely well before it, the company will have to aggressively raise new capital." It wasn't 1-2 quarters. It was barely 3 days. Moments ago TSLA announced that, just as we expected, it would dilute its shareholder by just under 2% by issuing $500 million in equity.

• China central bank under pressure to weaken yuan further (Reuters)
• Currency Rout Goes Global as Jen Sees Risk of 50% Loss on China (BBG)
• Europe Stocks Fall Most in Two Weeks as China Sparks Growth Fear (BBG)
• German Yields Drop to Record as China Boosts Bonds Around World (BBG)
• FT to Japan, Economist to Italy: Agnelli Family Raises Stake in Economist as Pearson Exits (BBG)
• Goldman Sachs to Give Out ‘Secret Sauce’ on Trading (WSJ)
• Greece's Preliminary Bailout Deal Faces German Turbulence (BBG)

Carry traders just got their fingers burnt by central bankers, again. Just 7 months after The SNB crushed Swiss Franc free-riders, as Bloomberg reports, The PBOC 'surprised' an armada of easy-money-addicts drawn to the Yuan by its stability, potentially wiping out their highly leveraged returns or leading to forced lqiuidations. Twice in 8 months is enough to shake anyone's faith in central bank omnipotence, but as Ben Hunt noted, potentially more crucial to the 'faith-based' investing of today, the Common Knowledge about Chinese growth – what everyone thinks that everyone thinks about Chinese growth – is dramatically changed for the worse today, and it’s a change that will accelerate unless the Narrative shifts.

As we first warned in March, and as became abundantly clear over the weekend Beijing had no choice but to join the global currency wars, as the yuan's dollar peg will ultimately prove to be too painful going forward. And sure enough this evening the PBOC weakens the Yuan fix by the most on record. 

In 2012 we asked whether the fact that stigmatized LIBOR traders were accepted with open arms at various hedge funds after being "fired" from the bulge bracket meant that there may, just may have been, some quid pro quo in the past. Now we know the answer.

Quarter after quarter, we are spoon-fed statistics 'proving' that everything is awesome trotting out the percentage of companies 'beating expectations'. However, as is widely-known 'inside' Wall Street, this is simply all smoke and mirrors. As the following two charts prove: every quarter, 'hockey-stick' hope starts off high, is then drastically reduced into the actual earnings period, which then rises during earnings to a level still lower than the pre-earnings period hope-fest... and once again, hope is pushed off into the next quarter... just one more quarter.

Right now, Deutsche Bank's cross-asset-class research warns, all signals other than the offered equity risk premium suggest caution...

Things not adding up with the current pricing structure...