national security

Following up on today's relentless debt ceiling propaganda, which started with the Politico report that more than half of republicans are willing to push the US into a "temporary" default, going through Obama's "We are not a deadbeat nation", but one whose president apparently will not debate the debt ceiling (the same president who as a Senator was against rising the debt ceiling) and closing with Boehner's rebuttal to Obama, saying the GOP would raise the debt ceiling but in exchange for spending cuts, sure enough it was time to unleash the Treasury Secretary in his last days on the job, toting the party line ("extending borrowing authority does not increase government spending; it simply allows the Treasury to pay for expenditures Congress has previously approved") making it "abundantly clear" that "Even a temporary default with a brief interruption in payments that Congress subsequently restores would be terribly damaging, calling into question the willingness of Congress to uphold America’s longstanding commitment to meet the obligations of the nation in full and on time.  It should also be noted that default would increase our borrowing costs and damage economic growth and therefore add to future budget deficits, not decrease them." The unleashed Geithner then proceeds to threaten: "Threatening to undermine our creditworthiness is no less irresponsible than threatening to undermine the rule of law, and no more legitimate than any other common demand for ransom." Finally, Geithner also made it clear that the CNBC "RISE ABOVE THE DEBT CEILING" campaign is now at T-30 to T-45: "Treasury currently expects to exhaust these extraordinary measures between mid-February and early March of this year" which however should not be news to anyone.

Just because there was not enough encroachment by the government into virtually every corner of private life, here is another "collaboration" that will further enmesh big brother into every aspect of private life, in this case private financial life, because as the WaPo reports, "major U.S. banks have turned to the National Security Agency for help protecting their computer systems after a barrage of assaults that have disrupted their Web sites, according to industry officials... The NSA, the world’s largest electronic spying agency, has been asked to provide technical assistance to help banks further assess their systems and to better understand the attackers’ tactics." And while we salute the great diversionary pretext that "Iranian hackers" pose a greater risk to the stability of the US financial system than, say, the ongoing monetization of US debt at a pace of $85 billion per month, which has made the Fed's DV01 rise to a mindboggling $2.75 billion, or idiot pundits who claim all American problems can be resolved with one coin, we can't help but wonder what happens when the most intrusive of US spy agencies, one which as reported last year is free "to intercept, decipher, analyze, and store" virtually every electronic communication in the entire world, now has full explicit access to all bank data, and, incidentally, every American's financial snapshot at any given moment?

What will the world look like two decades from now? Obviously, nobody knows, but some things are more likely than others. Companies and governments have to make informed guesses, because some of their investments today will last longer than 20 years. In December, the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its guess. The NIC foresees a transformed world, in which “no country – whether the US, China, or any other large country – will be a hegemonic power.” This reflects four “megatrends”: individual empowerment and the growth of a global middle class; diffusion of power from states to informal networks and coalitions; demographic changes, owing to urbanization, migration, and aging; and increased demand for food, water, and energy. 

As reported previously, when Bloomberg broke the news two days ago, it now appears that the official appointment of Jack Lew as the new SecTres will take place tomorrow. From Bloomberg: "President Obama will announce tomorrow that White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew is his pick for Treasury secretary, person familiar with the matter tells Bloomberg’s Han Nichols." In other words - goodbye Timmah: best of luck writing your new book, which in the tradition of every ex-public servant who departs the government where they kept their mouths firmly shut, we assume will be all about bashing Tim Geithner.

The CIA Is Taking Over the Dirty Work in Fighting America’s Wars

Equity markets recovered from a lower open following press reports overnight by eKathimerini that the country’s main banks are considering requesting additional funds for their recapitalization and edged higher throughout the session after sources at Hellenic Financial Stability Fund said that there no indications that Greek banks need more recap funds. In addition to that, Xinhua reported that chance of China RRR cut is increasing for January, citing industry insiders for RRR cut forecast. This follows on from the reports in ChinaDaily last week, which suggested that a small interest rate cut at the right time could substantially decrease financing costs and improve expectations for profitability, citing researchers from the China Development Bank, the State Information Center and the Shanghai Securities News who have worked together to forecast key economic indicators and policies in 2013. The risk sentiment was also supported by well subscribed debt auctions from the Netherlands, Austria, Greece and Belgium. As a result, peripheral bond yield spreads are tighter by around 5bps in 10s. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the latest NFIB, IBD/TIPP and Consumer Credit reports. The Fed is due to conduct Treasury op targeting Oct'18-Dec'19 (USD 3.00-3.75bln) and the US Treasury is also set to auction USD 32bln in 3y notes.

Bloomberg is out after hours with news that was expected by many, but which was yet to be formalized, until now: namely that following today's flurry of contntious nomination by Obama, the latest and greatest is about to be unveiled - Jack Lew, Obama's current chief of staff, is likely days away from being announced as Tim Geithner's replacement as the new Treasury Secretary of the United States. In other words, Jack will be the point person whom the people who truly run the Treasury, the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, chaired by JPM's Matt Zames (who just happens to also now run the notorious JPM Chief Investment Office which uses excess deposits to gamble - yes, you really can't make this up) and Goldman's Ashok Varadhan, global head of dollar-rate products and FX trading for North America (recently buying a $16 million pad at 15 CPW) will demand action from.

Will the taxer-in-chief discuss the debt ceiling or will this 'personal' announcement be all Hagel/Defense and Brennan/CIA? Stay tuned...

Why We Are In a Perpetual Series of Wars ...

As I prepare to retire from Congress I’d like to suggest a few New Year’s resolutions for my colleagues to consider. For the sake of liberty, peace and prosperity I certainly hope more members of Congress consider the strict libertarian-constitutional approach to government in 2013. In just a few days, Congress will solemnly swear to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic....  Congress should resolve to respect personal liberty and free markets. Learn more about the free market and how it regulates commerce and produces greater prosperity ever than any legislation or regulation. Understand that economic freedom is freedom. Resolve not to get in the way of voluntary contracts between consenting adults. Stop bailing out failed yet politically connected companies and industries. Stop forcing people to engage in commerce when they don’t want to, and stop prohibiting them from buying and selling when they want to. Stop trying to legislate your ideas of fairness. Protect property rights. Protect the individual. That is enough.

• Japan PM Abe wants to replace landmark war apology (Reuters) - to summarize Abe's strategy: crush the JPY even as China is alienated so much not a single Japanese export goes to Beijing. Brilliant
• Unthinkable Cuts Almost a Reality (WSJ)
• Signs of Negative Economic Impact Growing (WSJ)
• Carlyle Agrees to Buy Duff & Phelps for $665.5 Million (BBG)
• Greek retail sales slump deepens in October, recession bites (Reuters)
• Congress Dysfunction as Deadline Arrives Poses 2013 Risks (BBG)
• For Euro, All Eyes Are on Central Bank's Actions (WSJ)
• France Seeks New Path to High Tax (WSJ)
• Japan Rebuke to G-20 Nations May Signal Moves to Weaken Yen (BBG)
• Portugal braced for ‘fiscal earthquake’ (FT)
• Monti's reform path faces test beyond Italy elections (Reuters)
• South Korea’s Inflation Slows Even as Economy Gaining Momentum (WSJ)
• China factory sector strongest since May 2011 (Reuters)

To understand this endgame, we need to start with the financial and political basics of wealth and power in the U.S. Put these nine structural dynamics together and the endgame becomes clearly visible: Politically, a Tyranny of the Majority comprised of those who draw direct transfers/benefits from the Federal government, is ruled by the top half-of-1% financial aristocracy who own the majority of income-generating assets.  The minority, who pay most of the taxes (the 24.5% between the majority and aristocracy), will see their taxes rise as the aristocracy buys loopholes and exclusions while the bottom 50% pay no income tax. Financially, the Federal government’s spending has outrun the tax revenues being collected.  Structurally, Federal expenditures for entitlements (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Veterans Administration, etc.) will rise as Baby Boomers retire en masse over the next 15 years, while tax revenues will stagnate along with earned income. There is no way to square these circles. What few dare admit, much less state publicly, is that the Constitutional limits on the financial Aristocracy and the Tyranny of the Majority have failed.

It’s Not a Tax or Spending Problem … It’s a Devolution Into Lawlessness

Why Did We Lose Our Rights if the Government Isn’t Even Keeping Us Safe?

“The Government Has Bought Into the Notion that Too Big to Fail Is Too Big to Jail”