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Some have argued that a fiscal-cliff-impacted US economy would enter a recession as hard as Manny Pacquiao hit the canvas on Saturday night but for most of the nation it seems the fiscal cliff is of secondary importance... Will Pacquiao-Marquez 5 coincide with Debt-Ceiling II?

Many Kids and Suicidal Teens are Terrified of the Bogus 2012 Hype.  This Post Is a Public Service Announcement to Set the Record Straight ...

• Central Banks Ponder Going Beyond Inflation Mandates (BBG)
• Bloomberg Weighs Making Bid for The Financial Times (NYT)
• Hedge Funds Fall Out of Love with Equities (FT)
• Obama and Boehner resume US fiscal cliff talks (FT)
• Italy Front-Runner Vows Steady Hand (WSJ)
• Spanish Bailout Caution Grows as Business Lobbies Back Rajoy (BBG)
• Japan sinks into fresh recession (Reuters)
• China economic recovery intact, but weak exports drag (Reuters)
• Greece extends buyback offer to reach target (Reuters)  ... but on Friday they promised it was done
• Basel Liquidity Rule May Be Watered Down Amid Crisis (BBG) ... just before they are scrapped
• Irish, Greek Workers Seen Suffering Most in 2013 Amid EU Slump (BBG)

As predicted in our overnight summary piece titled, "Sentiment Shaken By Concerns Of Political Circus Returning To Italy" Europe appears set to be gripped by yet another political crisis, this time by the country that most forgot in 2012, with the attention focusing primarily on Spain and Greece. The reason is what some may call Berlusconi's revenge, who after being eliminated by the ECB in November 2011 when Draghi sent Italian bond spreads soaring, and made Berlusconi's departure a condition to returning normalcy in exchange for planting yet another Goldman tentacle in Italy, Mario Monti, has now shaken the credibility of his successor by having his party PDL abstain from a vote of confidence in favor of Monti's growth measures. The result, as Il Giornale reported moments ago, is that the "the government is increasingly hanging by a thread". It continues: 'Now Prime Minister Mario Monti is likely to no longer have the numbers in parliament. The majority creaks." Is this the end of the technocratic quiet in the austerity regimes? And if the people have said Basta to Goldman and its appointees, does this open the door wide for the likes of Berlusconi to retake the power and force Goldman to scramble to regain status quo "normalcy" for another several months just as every sellside firm has bet the ranch on a global renaissance in 2013?

• MSM discovers window dressing: Fund Managers Lift Results With Timely Trading Sprees (WSJ)
• White House Unyielding on Debt Limit (WSJ)
• Obama, Boehner talk; Geithner prepared to go off "cliff" (Reuters)
• Republicans urged to resist tax rises (FT)
• China looms large over Japanese poll (FT)
• As predicted here two months ago, Greek Bond Buyback Leads S&P to Cut to Selective Default (BBG)
• Japan opposition LDP set to win solid election majority – polls (BBG), but...
• Japan Opposition LDP’s Main Ally Cautions Abe on BOJ Pressure (BBG)
• U.S. and Europe Tackle Russia Trade (WSJ)
• King Seen Maintaining QE as Osborne Extends Fiscal Squeeze (BBG)
• Syria pound fall suggests currency crisis (FT)
• Irish budget seeks extra €3.5bn (FT)
• U.K. Extends Cuts Due to Poor Outlook (WSJ)
• ECB Seen Refraining From Rate Cuts as Yields Sink on Bond Plan (BBG)

Now that it's nearly impossible for naysayers to downplay or refute the most contrarian research of the decade, what's next? #MARGINCOMPRESSION!

More Spying On Citizens than in Stasi East Germany

Wondering what Christmas gift to give that special someone in your life that has taken the Red Pill?

• Two weeks ago here: The Latest Greek "Bailout" In A Nutshell: AAA-Rated Euro Countries To Fund Massive Hedge Fund Profits... and now on Bloomberg: "Hedge Funds Win as Europe Will Pay More for Greek Bonds" (BBG)
• Oracle sends shareholders cash as tax uncertainty looms (Reuters)
• GOP Makes Counteroffer In Cliff Talks (WSJ)
• Iran says captures U.S. drone in its airspace (Reuters)
• IMF drops opposition to capital controls (FT)
• Vogue Editor Wintour Said to Be Possible Appointee as U.K. Envoy (BBG)
• Juncker Stepping Down French Finance Minister to Head Euro Group? (Spiegel)
• Australia cuts rates to three-year low (FT)
• Europe’s banking union ambitions under strain (Reuters)
• EU Nations Eye New ECB Bank Supervisor Amid German Doubts (BBG)
• Frankfurt's Ambitions Get Cut Back (WSJ)
• House Republicans Propose $2.2 Trillion Fiscal-Cliff Plan (BBG)

After this year's presidential campaign, private equity and certainly Bain Capital, will likely be the last entity that those pandering to populist agendas will go to advice over the future of the business cycle in broad terms, and the future of US labor, most certainly including outsourcing, in narrow terms. And Goldman - that staunch defender of the superiority of capital over labor - will hardly be confused as ever taking the role of workers in any discussion. Which is why we read the following interview by Goldman's Hugo Scott-Gall with Bain Capital partners Michael Garstka and Alan Bird on such topics as corporate restructurings and the future of outsourcing with great interest, as it is very much unlikely that any of the conventional media sources would carry it. And while one may have ideological biases in whatever direction, the truth as presented previously, is that US private equity is a massive "behind the scenes" juggernaut, whose portfolio holding companies account for a whopping 8% of US GDP, and is directly and indirectly responsible for tens of millions of currently employed US workers! At the end of the day, it may well be that what private equity firms such as Bain think about the future of US labor prospects is the most important thing that matters for the future of the so very critical US unemployment rate. Which is why we present, for your reading pleasure, the somewhat unorthodox interview below...

While "Fiscal Cliff" may be having its 15-minutes of fame - a la "Honey Boo Boo" or "Sneezing Panda" - there is one thing that has consistently been more and more searched in the last eight years. According to Google Trends, internet users are skipping just plain old simple "ammo" as a search query, and in a tried and true American tradition, confirm that size matters. The size of the ammo order that is, as can be confirmed by the following chart showing queries for "bulk ammo". What goes without saying, are the wavelike periodicities of the quantized jumps higher in popularity at select times over the past decade: they just happen to aggregate around a very specific event taking place each November every 4 years. At this rate by November 2016 we are going to need a bulkier chart...

• Turns out no free lunch after all: Greeks rage against pension calamity (Reuters)
• Athens banks told of debt buyback ‘duty’ (FT)
• U.N. Gives Palestinians 'State' Status (WSJ)
• Obama's Cliff Offer Spurned (WSJ)
• Republicans Reject Obama Budget as He Sells It to Public (Bloomberg)
• Macau Gangster Who Missed Boom to Be Freed After 14 Years (Bloomberg)
• China Economic Optimism Returns in Poll as Xi Beats Hu (Bloomberg)
• Spain May Escape European Bailout, Former ECB Board Member Says (Bloomberg)... but they won't
• After a bashing, BOJ weighs "big bang" war on deflation (Reuters)
• Recession Left Baby Bust as U.S. Births Lowest Since 1920 (Bloomberg)
• Japan unveils second Y880bn stimulus package (FT)

Three visualizations describe the breakdown of PSMs--previously successful models: S-Curves, Supernovas and Rising Wedges. A successful model traps those within it; escape becomes impossible.  We see the immense power of previously successful models. Straying from the previously successful trajectory looks needlessly risky, even as the trajectory has rolled over and is heading for unpleasant impact. Anyone who questions the previously successful model (PSM) is suppressed, fired or sent to Siberia as a "threat" to the enterprise's success. Anyone who realizes the Titanic will inevitably sink and abandons ship leaves behind all their sunk capital: they leave with the figurative clothes on their back.

Headline GDP better than expected (but ugly underneath); claims weak (moar QE); pending home sales (beat - confirmation bias). All is well, right? Stocks surged up to their highs of the day and Pisani proclaimed a deal is close (apparently). And then, one politician uttered those terrifying words: REP. VAN HOLLEN SAYS ON MSNBC `WE'RE NOT CLOSE TO A DEAL' and stocks dive almost instantaneously on large volume (even as most clueless algos google the name and most get hits of a certain 1980s rock band)... happy trading until 1130ET when Boehner will host a press conference.

Sometimes the truth is a tough pill to swallow, particularly if that pill is low (and getting lower) margined hardward-based.