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Frontrunning: December 28





  • The Year Nothing Worked: Stocks, Bonds, Cash Go Nowhere (BBG)
  • Oil falls toward $37, near 11-year low, as excess supply weighs (Reuters)
  • End of easy money for mini-refiners splitting U.S. shale? (Reuters)
  • Shale's Running Out of Survival Tricks as OPEC Ramps Up Pressure (Reuters)
  • 'Safe’ Puerto Rican Debt Stirs Worries (WSJ)
  • These Will Be Wall Street's Most In-Demand Jobs Next Year (BBG)
 
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Lessons From The Late '20s - Why Bubbles Abound





Market-based Credit is unstable. This remains the fundamental issue – the harsh reality – that no one dares confront. Long-term stability in a Capitalistic system requires sound money and Credit (hopelessly archaic, we admit). Over the years, we've tried to differentiate traditional finance from unfettered “New Age” finance. The former, bank lending-dominated Credit, was generally contained by various mechanisms (including the gold standard, effective currency regimes, bank capital and reserve requirements, etc.). This is in stark contrast to the current-day securities market-based global financial “system” uniquely operating without restraints on either the quantity or quality of Credit created. There’s no precedence for such a globalized monetary fiasco, though there are a number of historical episodes that provide valuable insight.

 
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Dave Barry Answers - Was 2015 The Worst Year Ever? (Spoiler Alert: Yes)





We apologize, but 2015 had so many negatives that we’re having trouble seeing the positives. It’s like we’re on the Titanic, and it’s tilting at an 85-degree angle with its propellers way up in the air, and we’re dangling over the cold Atlantic trying to tell ourselves: “At least there’s no waiting for the shuffleboard courts!” Are we saying that 2015 was the worst year ever? Are we saying it was worse than, for example, 1347, the year when the Bubonic Plague killed a large part of humanity? Yes, we are saying that.

 
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"Unstoppable" California Gas Leak Now Being Called Worst Catastrophe Since BP Spill





Since initially reporting on California's Alison Canyon gas leak, more details have emerged on the scale (and potential for no solution) of the problem... "the enormity of the Aliso Canyon gas leak cannot be overstated. Gas is escaping through a ruptured pipe more than 8,000 feet underground, and it shows no signs of stopping." Methane - a greenhouse gas 72 times more impactful in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide - has been leaking with force equivalent “to a volcanic eruption” for about two months now.

 
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Faltering Faith, Losing Hope, & Rising Charity - 15 Striking Findings From 2015





Every year, Pew Research Center looks back at the most memorable facts that illustrate important trends shaping our world. From faltering faith in government to the decline of Christians in America and from increased racial tensions to the shrinking American middle-class, here are some of our most striking findings of 2015.

 
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These Are The Junk Bond Trades That "Obliterated" Traders In 2015





When the word 'bloodbath' just doesn't quite sum it up, distressed debt investors's bonuses have been obliterated in 2015. Despite seeking safety away from oil and coal companies, one trader exclaimed, the pain is "like cancer, it's spreading throughout the body," as every industry from materials to retail and industrials has collapsed... though, as Bloomberg reports, some investments stood out in their awfulness.

 
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Liberty Imperiled - Welcome To Cop-Land





People are waking up to the darkness in American policing, and the cops don't like it one bit...

 
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Monday Humor? America's "Most Polluted" Nuclear Weapons Site To Become National Park





"Everything is clean and perfectly safe. Any radioactive materials are miles away"...

 
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Star Wars Smashes Opening Weekend Box Office Record, But Will It Be Enough?





This weekend the force was strong with thirty (and forty, and fifty) year-olds, wishing to awaken memories of their youthful days with an admirable redo of the first Star Wars movie, first released nearly 40 years ago. But the force has never been stronger with Disney which is expected to rake in a record-breaking $238 million in opening weekend box office sales in the US and Canada, and a near-record $279 million overseas, a grand total of well over half a billion around the globe.

 
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2015 Year In Review - Scenic Vistas From Mount Stupid





“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey

 
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Global Trade Snapshot - "The Pain Is Getting Worse"





In December 2013, in a sign of robust global trade driving demand for container ships, the Baltic Dry Index peaked at 2,330. By July 2014, rates had collapsed to 730. Today, rates have fallen to 471, the lowest since the recession began (in fact, the lowest ever). The BDI is a leading indicator pointing to worse trade conditions. Just as the 2014 collapse in the BDI reflected a collapse in global trade, the recent erosion in the BDI signals further trade weakness to come. Here's a snapshot of the meltdown.. and the pain is getting worse.

 
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Argentinians Are Now Poorer Than Citizens Of Equatorial Guinea After Massive Devaluation





As FT reports, “Argentines woke up on Thursday richer than Poles, Chileans and Hungarians [but] by bedtime they were not only poorer than all three, but also more pecunious than Mexicans, Costa Ricans and the good people of Equatorial Guinea.”

 
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Futures Slide As Quad-Witching Has A Violently Volatile Start After Massive BOJ FX Headfake; Oil Tumbles





Following the latest BOJ statement, the market found itself wrongfooted assuming the BOJ was actually launching another episode of easing, sending the USDJPY soaring, until suddenly the realization swept the market that not only was the incremental action not really material, but even Kuroda spoke shortly after the announcement, confirming that "today's decision wasn't additional easing." The result was one of the biggest FX headfakes in recent days, perhaps on par with that from December 4 when EUR shorts were crushed, as the biggest carry pair first soared then tumbled and since the Yen correlation drives so many risk assets, also pulled down not only Japanese stocks but US equity futures.

 
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Will 'Elites' Blow Up The GOP?





Has the GOP establishment learned nothing from history? What the elites have to realize is that it is they and the policies they produced that are the reason Trump, Carson and Cruz currently hold an overwhelming majority of Republican votes.

 
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Cornering Russia - Risking World War III





Official Washington is awash with tough talk about Russia and the need to punish President Putin for his role in Ukraine and Syria. But this bravado ignores Russia’s genuine national interests, its “red lines,” and the risk that “tough-guy-ism” can lead to nuclear war. In short, Russia is being offered only the binary choice: to acquiesce to the “benevolent” hegemon, or to prepare for war.

 
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