Exxon

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Frontrunning: October 11





  • Global easing deluge resumes: Bank of Korea Slashes Policy Rate (WSJ)
  • And Brazil: Brazil cuts Selic rate to new record low of 7.25 pct (Reuters)
  • With Tapes, Authorities Build Criminal Cases Over JPMorgan Loss (NYT) Just don't hold your breath
  • IMF snub reveals China’s political priorities (FT)
  • Add a dash of trade wars: Revised Duties Imposed by U.S. on Chinese Solar Equipment (Bloomberg)
  • IMF calls for action as euro zone crisis festers (Reuters)
  • Dubai Losing Billions as Insecure Expats Send Money Abroad (BBG)
  • Softbank in Advanced Talks to Acquire Sprint Nextel (WSJ)
  • Lagarde calls for brake on austerity (FT)
  • EU lambasts Turkey over freedoms (FT)
  • Race Tightens in Two States (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: October 10





  • U.S. Military Is Sent to Jordan to Help With Crisis in Syria (NYT)
  • IMF Weighing New Loans for Europe (WSJ)
  • Romney Targets Obama Voters (WSJ)
  • China’s Central Banker Won’t Attend IMF Meeting Amid Island Spat (Bloomberg)
  • Japan Calls China PBOC Chief Skipping IMF Meeting ‘Regrettable’ (Bloomberg)
  • German media bristles at hostile Greek reception for Merkel (Reuters)
  • The End Might Be Near for Opel (Spiegel)
  • IMF sounds alarm on Japanese banks (FT)
  • Cash Tap Stays Dry for EU Banks (WSJ)
  • Goldman in Push On Volcker Limits (WSJ)
  • IMF Vinals: Further Policy Efforts Needed to Gain Lasting Stability (WSJ)
  • King signals inflation not primary focus (FT)
 
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California Gas Price Hits Record $4.614 Per Gallon





We have covered the great California gas rush in the past few days, and here is the confirmation. According to the AAA fuel gauge report, the average California gas price just hit an all time record of $4.614, and shows no sign of slowing down.

 
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A Taste Of Unleaded Things To Come





In a follow-up to our discussion yesterday - and perhaps a haunting vision of days to come if the tensions that are so rapidly rising in the Middle East actually spill over - is this chart from Bloomberg of the massive spike in California gas prices. How will this impact the California economy? Especially now they can't count on all that Facebook capital gains tax? Think this is only those silly West Coast 'techies' problem? Think again, as news today is discussing the redirection of fuel supplies to the West Coast, which will inevitably mean a rise in broad US fuel costs as the shortage picture equilibrates.

 
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Frontrunning: October 5





  • Draghi Says Next Move Not His as Spain Resists Bailout (Bloomberg)
  • EU Doubts on Deficit Cutting May Hinder Spain’s Path to Bailout (Bloomberg)
  • Merkel to Visit Greece for First Time Since Crisis Outbreak (Bloomberg)
  • Fed's Bullard warns inflation won't ease U.S. debt burden (Reuters)
  • Walmart Workers Stage a Walkout in California (NYT)
  • Natural Gas Glut Pushes Exports (WSJ)
  • BOJ Refrains From More Stimulus as Political Pressure Mounts (Bloomberg)
  • Big funds seek to rein in pay at Wall Street banks (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Luxury Sales Fall as Chinese Curb Spending (Bloomberg)
  • Dave and Busters Pulls IPO due to "Market Conditions" (Reuters) - so market at anything but all time highs now is market conditions?
  • Weak U.S. labor market looms ahead of elections (Reuters)
  • Glut of Solar Panels Poses a New Threat to China (NYT)
 
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Wholesale Gasoline Shortage In California Causes Gas Stations To Shut Down: Hoarding Next?





"The squeeze is on, and people are doing desperate things," is how one independent described the situation in California. As Bloomberg reports, a shortage of supply along with drastically higher wholesale prices of gasoline has caused 'mom-and-pop' gas stations to close down as their margins are destroyed. 

  • *VALERO SAYS SUPPLY IN CALIFORNIA HAS TIGHTENED
  • *VALERO SAYS IT HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED SPOT SALES IN CALIFORNIA

The problem is likely a short-term one, according to some, thanks to the temporary shutdown of local refineries (after Chevron's Richmond refinery fire) and maintenance but it is clear that even a short-term blip in wholesale prices (whether driven by local supply or global geopolitics) causes pain as it would appear we are close to 'inelastic' levels of demand.

 
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Guest Post: Are You Seeing What I'm Seeing?





Connecting the dots between my anecdotal observations of suburbia and a critical review of the true non-manipulated data bestows me with a not optimistic outlook for the coming decade. Is what I’m seeing just the view of a pessimist, or are you seeing the same thing? A few powerful men have hijacked our economic, financial and political structure. They aren’t socialists or capitalists. They’re criminals. They created the culture of materialism, greed and debt, sustained by prodigious levels of media propaganda. Our culture has been led to believe that debt financed consumption over morality and justice is the path to success. In reality, we’ve condemned ourselves to a slow painful death spiral of debasement and despair.

“A culture that does not grasp the vital interplay between morality and power, which mistakes management techniques for wisdom, and fails to understand that the measure of a civilization is its compassion, not its speed or ability to consume, condemns itself to death.” – Chris Hedges

 
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Guest Post: Europe Has Had Enough, But Can It Stand Up To Gazprom?





Gazprom has Europe’s natural gas market in a stranglehold and Europe is attempting to fight back, first with a raid last year on the Russian giant’s offices and then with a probe launched earlier this week against its allegedly illicit efforts to control the EU’s natural gas supplies. The bottom line is that the same natural gas revolution in the US, which was enabled by hydraulic fracturing (fracking), is now threatening to loosen Gazprom’s noose on the EU, and Gazprom simply won’t have it. Let’s not pretend that energy companies are clean and that governments aren’t using them to forward nefarious geopolitical objectives (US multinationals in Northern Iraq, for instance). The point is not to paint Gazprom as the ultimate evil in energy. This is about Europe, and the EU’s “Mommy Dearest” struggle with Gazprom, which is undoubtedly playing an underhanded energy-politics game worthy of the most sinister of accolades.

 
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Frontrunning: August 20





  • Caterpillar warns on global uncertainty (FT)
  • Only 3 years behind the curve as usual: Moody’s warns on California city defaults (FT)
  • Monti Says ‘Tragedy’ If Euro Became a Factor of Disruption (Bloomberg) - the same Monti whose disruptive comments recently enraged Germany?
  • China Home Prices Climb in More Cities Prompting Policy Concerns (Bloomberg)
  • China's Big Four boost new bank loans in Aug first half (Reuters)
  • EU Leaders Plan Shuttle Talks to Bolster Greece (Bloomberg)
  • US rule set to slash cars’ fuel use (FT)
  • Spain Seeks Commitment From Central Bank on Bond Buys (WSJ)... and preferably completely unconditional
  • Finnish Euro Doubts Hide Business Plea to Commit to Currency (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: August 15





  • Investors Shift Money Out of China (WSJ)
  • Rajoy Risks Riling ECB in Bid to Avoid Union Ire (Bloomberg)
  • Romney-Ryan See Fed QE as Inflation Risk Amid Subdued Prices (Bloomberg)
  • Spanish savers offered haircut then money back (FT)
  • Must wipe all traces of illegality and settle for $25,000: Standard Chartered Faces Fed Probes After N.Y. Deal (BBG)
  • Greece debt report backs cuts plan (FT)
  • Greece seeks two-year austerity extension (FT)
  • Brevan Howard Looks To U.S. To Raise Money For Currency Fund (Bloomberg)
  • Can he please stop buying gold? Paulson, Soros Add Gold as Price Declines Most Since 2008 (Bloomberg)
  • BOE Drops Reference to Rate Cut as It Considers Policy Options (Bloomberg)
  • EU Banking Plans Asks ECB to Share Power, Documents Show (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: August 8





  • Regulators irate at NY action against Standard Chartered (Reuters)
  • Recession Generation Opts To Rent Not Buy Houses To Cars (Bloomberg)
  • Egypt launches air strikes on militants in Sinai (Reuters)
  • Loan-Shark Lending Surge Feared In Japan (Bloomberg)
  • US seeks $3bn for Sudan oil deal (FT)
  • Home Prices Climb as Supply Dwindles (WSJ)... not really- just money laundering in the form of ultra luxury home purchases soars
  • A lifeline is thrown to the periphery - Smaghi (FT)
  • Standard and Who? Greece Credit-Rating Outlook Lowered by S&P as Economy Weakens (Bloomberg)
  • BOE Cuts Growth Forecast, Sees Inflation Below Goal in Two Years (Bloomberg)
  • S&P Takes CreditWatch Actions On Four Spanish Banks (Reuters)
  • Japan Gets Reprieve as Drop in Oil Eases Trade Impact (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: August 7





  • Standard Chartered Falls Most in 24 Years on U.S. Iran Probe (Bloomberg)
  • Iran accusations wipe $15 billion off StanChart shares (Reuters)
  • Hilsenrath tells us that Fed Official Calls for Open-Ended Bond Buying (WSJ) - shocking indeed
  • German opposition backs fiscal union, demands constitutional change and referendum (FT)
  • Gary Gensler speaks: Libor, Naked and Exposed (NYT)
  • IMF Pushes Europe to Ease Greek Burden (WSJ)
  • Second TSE System Error in Seven Months Halts Derivatives (Bloomberg)
  • Rice Hoard Offers World Respite as Food Costs Surge (Bloomberg)
  • UK coalition in crisis over parliamentary reform (Reuters)
  • Ethics probe could deal losing hand to Nevada Democrat (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: July 27





  • Bundesbank Maintains Opposition to ECB Bond Buying (WSJ)
  • Greek Budget Talks Stumble as EU Urges Samaras to Deliver (Bloomberg)
  • Fortified by euro, Finns take bailouts on the chin (Reuters)
  • China Job Market for Graduates Shows Stress on Slowdown (Bloomberg)
  • China Exports Fade as Inflation Eludes Targets: Cutting Research (Bloomberg)
  • Japan Falters as Ito Calls for Euro Buys to Rein in Yen: Economy (Bloomberg)
  • Government weighs social insurance reforms (China Daily)
  • Colombia’s Split Central Bank to Weigh First Rate Cut Since 2010 (Bloomberg)
 
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What Is The Upside In Chesapeake?





Three weeks ago, when the hit campaign on Chesapeake was in full swing, we made a simple prediction: hate the company for whatever reasons but not because of the balance sheet. We explained that "under ZIRP, when every basis point of debt return over 0% is praised, and an epic scramble ensues among hedge for any yielding paper no matter how worthless, the balance sheets of companies just do not matter. In other words, for companies that have massive leverage, high interest rates, negative cash flow, which all were corporate death knells as recently as 2008, the capitalization structure is completely irrelevant." Alternatively, some other, far bigger, company with a pristine balance sheet and lower quality assets could swoop in and do a full management purge, removing the Mclendon overhang, firing the disgraced Board and commingling liabilities while boosting the quality of its assets. Think the TBTF putches from September 2008. Because at the end of the day, it is all about the quality of the assets. And the reality is that CHK has some quality assets, which, however, are burdened by many legacy issues. There is of course the issue of near all time record gas prices. But there in lies the rub: the prices are already at near all time lows. They could continue sliding, or in a world in which hard assets (and even gaseous) are becoming more and more precious by the day, they could go up. In which case CHK would be a very interesting bet. Needless to say, two weeks after our preliminary CHK assessment, Carl Icahn put his money, or rather $775 million of it to be precise, to essentially confirm what we had said previously. Which brings us to the next question: is CHK really worth more? Well, in keeping with the tradition of keeping it simple, we have decided to present one delightfully simple chart from Bloomberg, which shows where the biggest downside in the stock comes from - it's well-known leverage - as well as where the upside is hiding - its asset base - which has the lowest valuation of its peers.

 
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