Eurozone

With China closed today, the usual overnight market manipulation fireworks out of Beijing were absent but that does not meant asset levitation could not take place, and instead of the daily kick start out of China today it has been all about the ECB which as we previewed two days ago, is expected - at least by some such as ABN Amro - to outright boost its QE, while virtually everyone else expects Draghi to not only cut the ECB's inflation forecast, which reminds us of the chart which in March we dubbed the biggest hockeystick ever (we knew it wouldn't last) but to verbally jawbone the Euro as low as possible (i.e., the Dax as high as it will get) even if the former Goldmanite does not explicitly commit to more QE.

"Not 'IF' but 'WHEN central banks lose control?' The global financial repression pushed investors to invest cash in risky assets, such as property and equity. The scale of global policy interventions is trumping all fundamental factors for now. Investors should keep in mind that the road is never straight and next month should be full of potentially disruptive events impacting sharply overcrowded assets and trades. History shows that such misallocation of resources creates bubbles that can last before fully blowing; the question is not if, but when."

News That Matters

Given “highly accommodative” policy almost everywhere, and so little gained; it isn’t a good sign particularly after eight incessant years of it and the lagged effects from the renewed “dollar” wave still to be withstood. Every year was supposed to be “the year”, but 2015 was a surefire lock according to orthodox versions. The real difference, unlike past years, is that everything is going wrong so far just as predicted by the “strong dollar.”

Mario Draghi and the ECB have a habit of patting themselves on the back when it comes to what they imagine the happy outcomes of their monetary policy decisions have been. In fact, they have a habit of congratulating themselves on positive outcomes even before said outcomes have been observed or have even had time to play out. This time around unfortunately, "the failure looks clear."

Europe's refugee crisis just took a dramatic turn for the worse, and strikes at the very hear of Europe's Shengen customs union which has allowed borderless travel within Europe for decades. As Bloomberg reports, the Italian Province of Bolzano in Northern Italy said in a statement that it agreed with the Italian government on request by German Federal State of Bavaria by "communicating a willingness to restore border controls at Brenner and temporarily suspend the Schengen agreement."

• All surveyed analysts expect the ECB to keep their three key interest rates unchanged
• A number of analysts have suggested that inflation rhetoric could be downbeat and further QE is a possibility later this year, as such any potential indication to this by Draghi is likely to take centre stage at the press conference
• The central bank are said to be concerned by inflation expectations, with low energy prices and recent EUR strength raising concerns about the central bank’s mandated 2% inflation target

Wax on Wax off,risk on today risk off tomorrow.....things could spiral out of control rather quickly

Just when everyone was convinced that the main "risk off" event of the summer, namely the Greek bailout, was safely tucked away and that having abdicated its sovereignty to its creditors  and Germany in particular, who now hold the Greek banking system hostage courtesy of draconian capital controls, that Greece would continue to receive its monthly cash allotment just so it could repay creditors from its first two bailouts and would not make headlines for the foreseeable future , Market News just reported that suddenly even the Greek bailout is no longer on autopilot as a result of the upcoming elections in three weeks, whose outcome is anything but assured.

• Charting the Market: New Month, Same China (BBG)
• China jitters send stocks tumbling (Reuters)
• Oil falls on weak China factory data (Reuters)
• Euro zone factory growth eases in August despite modest price rises (Reuters)
• Euro-Area Joblessness Falls to Lowest Level Since Early 2012 (BBG)
• Clinton friend advised on U.S. politics, foreign policy (Reuters)
• Korea exports slump as Asia's woes deepen (Reuters)

Gold rose 3.5% in August as stocks globally saw sharp falls on growing concerns about the Chinese and the global economy.  

News That Matters

"You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes." - Morpheus, The Matrix

• Risk averse sentiment dominated the price action overnight, with Chinese equities (Shanghai Comp -8.5%) again under heavy selling pressure as market participants were left disappointed by the lack of action by the PBOC to ease monetary conditions further. 
• US data is set to remain in focus as participants continue to try to gauge the possibility of a September rate lift off after last week’s Fed’s minutes highlighted concerns over China
• This week sees the first preliminary August CPI readings in Europe from both Germany and Spain

We warned on Friday, after last week's China rout, that the market is getting ahead of itself with its expectation of a RRR-cut by China as large as 100 bps. "The risk is that there isn't one." We were spot on, because not only was there no RRR cut, but Chinese stocks plunged, with the composite tumbling as much a 9% at one point, the most since 1996 when it dropped 9.4% in a single session. The session, as profile overnight was brutal, with about 2000 stocks trading by the -10% limit down, and other markets not doing any better: CSI 300 -8.8%, ChiNext -8.1%, Shenzhen Composite -7.7%. This was the biggest Chinese rout since 2007.