Eurozone

The news out of Europe just keeps getting worse. While earlier we described how the squabbling within Merkel's own party could scuttle her political career, not to mention hopes for ongoing German funding of European bailouts, next we learn that she has not only outright rejected Finland's demands for loan collateralization out of Greece (which would in turn make Greece a selective Debtor In Possession lender, or, in other words, a prepack bankruptcy candidate 101), a move which Finland will likely balk over and very likely unilaterally exit from the second Greek bailout (remember that whole "Greek Bailout #2 is Dead on Arrival" from June 5?), but what is worse, according to Der Spiegel, tomorrow CDU coalition partner CSU will likely propose several "explosive ideas" which not only reject a common "economic government" for the eurozone (thereby slapping Sarkozy fully across the face), but also consider "creating a bankruptcy procedure to kick out of the euro countries that aren't willing to stick to the debt limits laid out in the euro zone's Stability and Growth Pact." In other words zero steps forward, and as many steps back as it takes to get us to before not only the July 22 Greek bail out, but all the way back to the beginning of the year. Only this time, the market is fully aware that both Italy and France are also on the hook: that can not be unwound with any paper.

Update: sure enough, here is Ambrose Evans-Pritchard with his own perspective on just this topic, which is oddly comparable to Zero Hedge's: "Mrs Merkel's aides say she is facing "war on every front". The next month will decide her future, Germany's destiny, and the fate of monetary union."

Every time we discuss the futility of the n^th bailout of [Greece\PIIGS\Europe\the Euro] we make it all too clear (most recently here and here) that the trade off between Germany onboarding ever more peripheral financial risk in one after another all too brief attempt to prevent the implosion of European capital markets and its currency, is not only a relentless creep higher in German default risk (and lower in the German stock market, as August has so violently demonstrated) but increasing political discontent, which after claiming countless political regimes across the world, has finally settled down on one that truly matters: that of German chancellor Angela Merkel. And as Reuters reports, Merkel's disappointing response to an ever escalating set of crises, both domestic and international, means that the beginning of her end (and by implication of the Eurozone, and of the Euro) may be as soon as September 23, when the vote over the expansion of the latest and greatest European bailout lynchpin, EFSF, will take place. 

Winston Churchill defined appeasement as “feeding the dragon hoping he will eat you last.” As the eurozone banking crisis has morphed into a sovereign debt crisis, it is worth reconsidering the wisdom of appeasing the bond market in an attempt to stave off the possibility of default.

Yep. Europe again. Following comments from Generali's CEO Giovanni Perissinotto based on a transcript from a conference call earlier that the Eurozone is at risk of breakup (something which everyone knows, but nobody dares to say, especially not anyone whose CDS is trading in lockstep with those of Italy), the USDCHF just plunged to fresh all time lows. And so all the goodwill created by the robotic buying on the NFP headlines is gone.

After soaring by over a hundred points, the DJIA subsequently plunged in a flash crash type move after Reuters carried headlines saying that the CDU budget expert said that the Eurozone leaders have clearly excluded boosting the volume of the EFSF (and the plunge has nothing to do with any ridiculous rumor of an S&P downgrade - the S&P would be sent into exile if it dared to defy Obama at this point in his debt ceiling hike victory lap). The plunge was further exacerbated by a previous interview on CNBC with Olli Rehn in which he was pressed for details on the EFSF which he naturally would not provide as obviously Germany is still not onboard. And as everyone knows, without a €1.5 trillion expansion in the SPV monetization mechanism known as the EFSF, Italy is doomed. The result: a 30 point plunge in the ES showing once again that when it comes to flash crash risk, it is once again all about Italy and insolvent Europe in general.

Gold is marginally higher against most currencies today and is trading at USD 1,614.40, EUR 1,130.50, GBP 990.08 and CHF 1,294.50 per ounce. Gold is flat against the dollar but remains just less than 1% from the record nominal high reached yesterday ($1,628.05/oz).  The euro is under pressure again today and gold is 0.7% higher against the euro and is just less than 1.5% away from the record euro high of EUR 1,144.80/oz reached last Monday. Investors were made nervous by comments from chemicals major BASF, which said it saw global economic growth slowing as it posted weaker-than-expected earnings, sending its stock down 4.9%. Siemens AG, Europe's largest engineering conglomerate, warned that global economic risks were increasing and posted below forecast results. Its shares fell 1.3%. The Dow to Gold Ratio has again turned down suggesting gold may continue to outperform U.S. stocks and the DJIA, in particular, in the coming weeks. The long term target of below 2:1 remains viable.

The only real solution to the Eurozone end-game is massive debt forgiveness and the resulting destruction of "too big to fail" banks, and a return to national currencies, which will enable structural imbalances to be resolved via currency devaluations. This will of course destabilize the German export economy; but that is inevitable. "Extend and pretend" is an endgame, not a fix.

There is only one section of the proposed European Bailout draft statement that is relevant to traders: Section 7, bullet 3 which says: "To improve the effectiveness of the EFSF and address contagion, we agree to increase the flexibility of the EFSF, allowing it to intervene in the secondary markets on the basis of an ECB analysis recognizing the existence of exceptional circumstances and a unanimous decision of the EFSF Member States." Everything else is noise. Europe just legalized its own Plunge Protection Team and off balance sheet Quantitative Easing program with one signature. Good luck trading in this, or any, market which even the politicians now admit is nothing more than a central banking policy tool.

Over time many have wondered why the ECB, in order to "extend and pretend", does not simply do an episode of QE and monetize bonds outright? Well, in addition to Germany's flashbacks to hyperinflation which have so far kept Trichet from pursuing an all too aggressive bond buyback program in the primary market, the ECB does have the Securities Market Programme (SMP) which however since inception has bought only €74 billion (this week the number is expected to rise, or, if it doesn't, it confirms that now China is directly buying European bonds in the secondary market). The problem with the SMP is that it was conceived as a modest marginal debt buying program, never intended to surpass much more than a few dozen billion in debt. Alas, by now it is becoming all too clear that the ECB will need to monetize hundreds of billions of insolvent PIIGS debt in order to extend and pretend forcefully enough so that a new bailout is not needed every other week. But how to do it without monetizing debt on the ECB's books? Enter the EFSF, or the off-balance sheet CDO "at the heart of the eurozone" which according to the latest iteration of the European rescue package (Remember that most recent DOA plan to rollover debt? Yep - that's dead) is precisely the mechanism by which Europe's own open market QE is about to take place. "European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi suggested the EFSF be allowed to provide funds for a buy-back of bonds from the market, where prices have in some cases fallen 50 percent from levels at which the debt was issued. "This would allow the private sector to sell bonds at market prices, which are currently below nominal value. At the same time, the public sector could benefit monetarily," Bini Smaghi told Sunday's To Vima newspaper in an interview." Translated: another market clearing perversion courtesy of the same structured finance abominations that brought us here. The problem, unfortunately, is that Moody's announced nearly two and a half years ago that the whole distressed debt buyback approach is... a dead end, and will lead to the same "event of default" outcome that all the prior bailout plans would have achieved as well (we correctly surmised that Bailout #2 was DOA, about a month before the "efficient" market did). Here is why.

Much hollow rhetoric has been uttered about the vast existential threat presented by Greek CDS. As we have reported, Greek CDS is the least of Europe's problems. When it comes to the stability of the European dominoes, it is and has always been about Italy, which is not only the second worst country in Europe after Greece on a debt/GDP basis, and also the country with the largest amount of nominal debt, but more importantly has the largest amount of net CDS outstanding. All this is summarized on the Bloomberg chart below.

Gold is higher today and showing particular strength against the euro and the Japanese yen. The relief rally seen in equities since the latest Greek ‘bailout’ is under pressure as S&P have said the debt rollover proposal would be a “selective default”. The ECB may selectively reject the S&P Greek downgrade and arbitrarily select the best credit rating being offered. Gold has been supported in the traditionally weak “summer doldrums” period due to institutional demand and strong physical demand at the $1,500/oz level, particularly from Asia. Gold tends to take a break in October and then has a second period of seasonal strength from the end of October to the end of December. This has been primarily due to Indian religious festival, store of wealth, demand in the autumn and western jewellery demand prior to Christmas.

A few days ago, we demonstrated that the latest Greek bailout package is nothing more than recycled MLEC special purpose vehicle designed to cover up toxic assets off balance sheet, like that one that was supposed to wrap up the subprime toxic mess. Luckily that did not happen as all it would do is make the credit crash even more acute when it finally did hit. In the meantime, the other Frankenstein contraption proposed by Wall Street to contain the fallout of the PIIGS bankruptcy, is the EFSF, which also got a facelift a few weeks back, and which is effectively a CDO: the same instrument which caused European banks to now be insolvent after buying up all tranches offered them by Goldman et al in the 2005-2007 period, once US banks realized just how toxic the less than AAA tranches were. It is poetically ironic that the instrument that led to Europe's insolvency is now what is supposed to prevent (temporarily) its plunge into outright default. For all who are wondering what the details of the new and improved CDO at the heart of the Eurozone are, here is Nomura's Nikan Firoozye.

An inescapable double-bind has emerged for Germany: If Germany lets its weaker neighbors default on their sovereign debt, the euro will be harmed, and German exports within Europe will slide. But if Germany becomes the "lender of last resort," then its taxpayers end up footing the bill. If public and private debt in the troubled nations keeps rising at current rates, it's possible that even mighty Germany may be unable (or unwilling) to fund an essentially endless bailout. That would create pressure within both Germany and the debtor nations to jettison the single currency as a good idea in theory, but ultimately unworkable in a 16-nation bloc as diverse as the eurozone. Be wary of the endless "fixes" to a structurally doomed system.

Step aside IMF, China is now in the driver's seat. Officially.