Reality

The latest semi-unicorn to drop like a fly was none other than Foursquare, a company which makes apps that do something that most other apps already do as well if not better. Actually make that Twosquare, or rather Oneandathirdsquare, because according to ReCode, the company is close to finalizing a funding round that will see the company's value plunge to $250 million, almost two-thirds less than the $650 million it was "valued" at two years ago.

'Keep It Simple Stupid' is the underlying narrative of the "two cows explain economics" meme... but, in light of the 'new normal' reality unleashed by ever-intervening central planners, some of the key political, economic, and corporate systems needed a re-work...

Timing a crash can be a fool's errand, and fortunately such efforts are largely irrelevant if you are tail hedging (though they are quite relevant if you aren't). But this doesn't mean that exercises in timing are without merit. Without a doubt (or at least with over 99% confidence), bad things happen with increasing expectation when conditioning on higher Q ratios ex ante. Factoring time into the equation, and again based on history, the confidence interval around the median time would point to an expectation that the crash should commence right about now.

Wishful thinking is not a solution. The world of work has changed, and the rate of change is increasing. Despite the hopes of those who want to turn back the clock to the golden era of high-paying, low-skilled manufacturing jobs and an abundance of secure service-sector white collar jobs, history doesn't have a reverse gear.

Financial fraud is any method by which deception or duplicity induces those with money to "invest" in a scheme...   

On Dec 16, Federal Chair Janet Yellen announced the Fed was raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. She will have to take it back.

People are waking up to the darkness in American policing, and the cops don't like it one bit...

"The trouble is that rents are running high not because house prices are booming and/or construction is sawing but because structurally new entrants to the housing market are renters not owners. This is reflected in the very low first time homebuyer rate, less than 30 percent."

There are many half-truths perpetrated on individuals by Wall Street to sell product, gain assets, etc. However, if individuals took a moment to think about it, the illogic of many of these arguments are readily apparent. The index is a mythical creature, like the Unicorn, and chasing it has historically led to disappointment. Investing is not a competition, and there are horrid consequences for treating it as such.

Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s seminal masterpiece Crime and Punishment is often thought of as one of the longest classics at more than 200,000 words. The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016, which was signed into law on Friday, is nearly twice as long. At 887 pages, the bill allocates $1.15 trillion in war and discretionary spending for fiscal year 2016 which began almost three months ago. (That’s an average of $1.3 billion in spending PER PAGE of the bill.) In making it public law, President Obama has effectively signed the death warrant of the US government’s finances.

We now enter the “discovery” phase of financial collapse, where things labeled “capital” and “credit” turn out to be mere holograms. It’s not just the Federal Reserve; everything around us is backed into a corner as the rude discovery that capital is not what it has appeared to be is now underway, with the power to derail political systems and societies.

Following a brief dead-cat-bounce into The Fed's policy error, high-yield bonds are once again being sold for the 3rd day in a row, filling the gap-up from last week. This reality - among others - is weighing on US equities as The S&P just gave up all its Monday morning "stocks are up and they should be" gains.

While many still cling to the belief that U.S. shale and tight oil plays are commercial even at current low oil prices but data on the Permian basin and Bakken plays simply does not support this hope. In fact, less than 2 percent of Permian basin tight oil wells are commercial at $30 per barrel oil prices.

Fukushima radiation just off the North American coast is higher now than it has ever been, and government scientists and mainstream press are scrambling to cover-up and downplay the ever-increasing deadly threat that looms for millions of Americans.

The Fed is now - for the first time in adult memory for half the world’s traders and money managers - tightening rather than loosening monetary conditions. A quick look at financial history is all it takes to lead anyone with leveraged money at risk to lighten up. Equally important - and vastly more strange when you think about it - this tightening comes at a time when major parts of the global economy are either grinding to a halt or imploding.